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Wii to Outsell PS3 and Xbox 360 Combined in '08, says analyst

Forums - Sales Discussion - Wii to Outsell PS3 and Xbox 360 Combined in '08, says analyst

pakidan101 said:
HappySqurriel said:

In 2008 the Wii accounts for about 47% marketshare (with the PS3 and XBox 360 representing 53%), an above average holiday boost for the Wii and below average boost for the PS3 and XBox 360 can easily reverse these positions.


 What kind of holiday boost would do that?


Look at last year:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Oct 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:


ConsoleWiiPS3X360PSPDS
Total
7,063,459
3,942,042
4,124,452
4,704,714
12,550,326

 

If the Wii wasn't supply limited it could have sold 9 to 10 Million units. If you get a similar performance (with the Wii having adequate supply) then the Wii could outsell the PS3 and XBox 360 combined by 2 to 3 Million; if it is remarkably lucky and sells like the Nintendo DS did last year it could outsell the PS3 and XBox 360 by 5+ Million.



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HappySqurriel said:
pakidan101 said:
HappySqurriel said:

In 2008 the Wii accounts for about 47% marketshare (with the PS3 and XBox 360 representing 53%), an above average holiday boost for the Wii and below average boost for the PS3 and XBox 360 can easily reverse these positions.


What kind of holiday boost would do that?


Look at last year:

VGChartz Hardware data for the period 06th Oct 2007 to 29th Dec 2007:


ConsoleWiiPS3X360PSPDS
Total
7,063,459
3,942,042
4,124,452
4,704,714
12,550,326

 

If the Wii wasn't supply limited it could have sold 9 to 10 Million units. If you get a similar performance (with the Wii having adequate supply) then the Wii could outsell the PS3 and XBox 360 combined by 2 to 3 Million; if it is remarkably lucky and sells like the Nintendo DS did last year it could outsell the PS3 and XBox 360 by 5+ Million.


Hmm, yes that would make sense. But lets say that if Nintendo does increase its production and sell another 9 to 10 million units. Do you think there would have been such a need for people to get the system like there is now? Or do you think people would start to take their time in getting the system?



Explanation of sig:

I am a Pakistani.....my name is Dan....how hard is that? (Don't ask about the 101...apparantely there are more of me out there....)

Nintendo has a very good chance if they can increase Wii production enough.



It's gonna happen. It's already really close, but it'll happen thanks to one word: CHRISTMAS. In fact, from now on we can just call it NINTENDOMAS.



The Ghost of RubangB said:
It's gonna happen. It's already really close, but it'll happen thanks to one word: CHRISTMAS. In fact, from now on we can just call it NINTENDOMAS.

Who will be Santa Claus? Iwata? And who would be baby Jesus? Miyamoto?

Or do we use their Nintendo Characters? 



Explanation of sig:

I am a Pakistani.....my name is Dan....how hard is that? (Don't ask about the 101...apparantely there are more of me out there....)

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"With 69.8M Nintendo DSs and 38M Sony PSPs on the market vs. 24.3M Wii's; 20.6M Xbox 360's; and 12.6M PS3's, the addressable market for Portable Game systems is significantly greater than for Consoles," Ernst pointed out. "However, because the price points of portable systems are significantly lower than for consoles, total portable revenues account for just 28% of industry sales – masking the segment's greater contribution to earnings."


 Am I the only person that noticed that his numbers for the systems are anywhere from 500,000 units (DS) higer to 5.5 million units higher (PSP) than ours?



cwbys21 said:

"With 69.8M Nintendo DSs and 38M Sony PSPs on the market vs. 24.3M Wii's; 20.6M Xbox 360's; and 12.6M PS3's, the addressable market for Portable Game systems is significantly greater than for Consoles," Ernst pointed out. "However, because the price points of portable systems are significantly lower than for consoles, total portable revenues account for just 28% of industry sales – masking the segment's greater contribution to earnings."


 Am I the only person that noticed that his numbers for the systems are anywhere from 500,000 units (DS) higer to 5.5 million units higher (PSP) than ours?


I want to know were those numbers came from as well, how did the 360 sell more than the PS3 this year according to those numbers?



 

mM
PS360ForTheWin said:
With the PS360 line up for 2008 it will never happen.

What games? They only appeal to a NICHE, not EVERYONE. Plus they don't interest me, who is a part of EVERYONE, not the NICHE people like you belong to.



pakidan101 said: I just can't think of any reason as to why they think the Wii will sell that much more.

1) Nintendo increases production this spring

2) Mario Kart and Wii Fit will drive demand even higher

3) Upcoming games will drive demand even higher

4) If Wii sales start to falter, they can do new color or lower price

 

You may disagree that Wii will outsell ps360 combined, but there are 4 reasons why someone could think the Wii will outsell the other 2.

 

 



Bets:Missed by 420k I bet leo-j vg$500 that wii will sell 31 million by 7/31/08.  Sorry, I don't think he has enough vg$ to make it with all of u that wish you could. Hit, with room to spare I bet kingofwale a 1-week ban that wii Americas ltd sales>360 Americas ltd sales as of the numbers for week ending 7/05/08 (using vgchartz homepage #s)

Predictions:

Wii will sell 18-20mil by 12/31/07  CHECKWii will sell 45mil+ WW by 12/31/08Wii will surpass PS2 sales WW by 11/17/11 (5yr anniversary)Wii Fit will hit 12mil sales in 2009MKWii+SSBB+Wii Fit+SMG > 50 mil sales by 2010 > gta4+mgs+gt5+ff13+haze+lbp