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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 ~73% Marketshare in 2017 (XB1 ~25%, Wii U 2.2%)

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exclusive_console on 11 March 2017
KingofTrolls said:
It depends on them price, I predict that every console including Switch will get a heavy price cut
-ps4 199,xbo199
-pro 350, scorpio 399
switch 249

I don't think so. May be during holidays there will be 50$ off. Also I think Scorpio will be 500$.



 

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Intrinsic on 11 March 2017
Ali_16x said:

I don't know how the market will play out, that's why I said that it's possible for MS to win NA.

1.You don't know how people will react to the Scorpio, maybe it being like a new console will give it the edge, or maybe it's the multiplats,

2. I mean a 2M lead is not that big and MS goes all of out in NA.

3. Just saying MS absolutely has a chance to win NA, not like the other 2 people saying it doesn't.

Did you just ignore everything I said? 

  1. Its talk like that thats setting up some XB fans for disappointment. ITS NOT LIKE A NEW CONSOLE. Forget how powerful it is or isn't, even MS has constantly reiterated this fact. Its an upgrade that offers more power or as MS likes to push it; native 4k gaming (when even that won't b the case in all games as per their leaked devs docs). For a system to be a "new console" it has to have one thing..... exclusives. Games that can only be played on it and nowhere else. The scorpio is not going to have that. What the scorpio will have is better performing hardware and more importantly..... a higher price. People really need to stop thinking that in the console market there are more people willing to pay significantly more for better hardware. 

    Or you really think the reason PS4pro sales are only tracking around 20% of total PS4 sales is because its not "powerful enough"?

  2. Thats just not true.... think of it.... its taken sony over 3 years to get that (not that big) 2M lead. (if its even that much cause it could be less). The whole point of my post was to show you what needs to happen for MS to make up that gap. When people talk about something selling well, they seem to forget that the other thing will also  keep selling too. Its not like sales of PS4 will just stop in NA the second the scorpio is released.


  3.  Well yes there is always a chance....... anything is possible afterall.... but that chance in this case is like a less than 10% chance. There is just so much going against it. Pricing is key here, and for the first time this gen sony would be the one with the weaker console. Think of it, MS are not the only ones that will go hard the holiday..... sony has no PSVr or PS4pro to push this year.... so they too will go hard and in the only area other than games left for them to exploit, and thats price.  

    A $199 PS4 + game (and there are so many games to bundle here from what we know sony to have marketing deals with already COD, RDR2, ME:A, Horizon, SW:BF...etc) is gonna be really really hard to beat. Especially if in truth all the scorpio is going to bring to the table is a better take on what the PS4pro did last year. I really don't understans how people still  think a bigger more expensive and/or more powerful box is going to do wonders. Has that EVER worked before? We have a history of consoles that has always sold less than whatever the cheaper thing was you know?


jason1637 on 11 March 2017

Will drop when Switch releases.



Enemy on 11 March 2017

The lifetime totals. 

It's not new for the PS4 to outsell Xbox One over two to one during multiple, nonholiday months. There have been months where VGChartz shows the PS4 outselling Xbox One three to one for multiple weeks during multiple months. So why is Xbox One always sitting at just above half of whatever the PS4 total is?

We all know the Xbox brand performs its best during holiday months but that shouldn't make up for the months that Xbox One gets outsold three to one or over two to one consecutively during the year. It also doesn't explain why Xbox One is always sitting at just above half of whatever the PS4 total is.

I could be wrong but it doesn't seem like weekly totals and monthly sales are reflecting the lifetime totals. Or it seems like VGChartz is changing their numbers to always have the Xbox One lifetime total sitting at just above half of whatever the PS4 lifetime total is. 

If Xbox One is getting outsold by over two to one globally during multiple months through the year, should the PS4 lifetime totals be greater than twice the Xbox One lifetime total?



Intrinsic on 11 March 2017
Ka-pi96 said:
Enemy said:

The lifetime totals. 

It's not new for the PS4 to outsell Xbox One over two to one during multiple, nonholiday months. There have been months where VGChartz shows the PS4 outselling Xbox One three to one for multiple weeks during multiple months. So why is Xbox One always sitting at just above half of whatever the PS4 total is?

We all know the Xbox brand performs its best during holiday months but that shouldn't make up for the months that Xbox One gets outsold three to one or over two to one consecutively during the year. It also doesn't explain why Xbox One is always sitting at just above half of whatever the PS4 total is.

I could be wrong but it doesn't seem like weekly totals and monthly sales are reflecting the lifetime totals. Or it seems like VGChartz is changing their numbers to always have the Xbox One lifetime total sitting at just above half of whatever the PS4 lifetime total is. 

If Xbox One is getting outsold by over two to one globally during multiple months through the year, should the PS4 lifetime totals be greater than twice the Xbox One lifetime total?

Ah, well some weeks/months are simply worth so much more than others. While you say Xbox One's holiday months shouldn't make up for the ones where they are getting outsold 2 or even 3 to 1, they really do. Xbox doesn't even have to get closer to the PS4 in those months, the much higher numbers will mean the PS4's percentage lead over the Xbox will likely be smaller even if the absolute number gap is higher. As an example, say in one month the PS4 sells 300k and the Xbox 100k. PS4 is 200k ahead and is outselling the Xbox 3 to 1. However with higher sales numbers, say PS4 3m and Xbox 2m, the gap has increased to 1m, but PS4 is now only outselling the Xbox 1.5 to 1.

If we were to expand that example, say 5 months of PS4 300k to Xbox 100k and one month of PS4 3m and Xbox 2m, then we'd have lifetime totals of 4.5m PS4s and 2.5m Xboxs. Which means in those 6 months the PS4 outsold the Xbox 1.8 to 1. Despite 5 months of 3 to 1 sales, that 1 month with much higher sales was worth so much more that it massively decreased the ratio, even with PS4 actually having a bigger pure numbers lead that month. Actual sales are a fair bit higher than that example, but that's still what's happening with VGC's figures.

Besides that, ratios are simply harder to increase (or decrease) by any noticable amount the longer something has been going.

Yearly ratios, while still not 100% accurate since again some years are worth a lot more than others, are much closer to lifetime ratios than weekly/monthly.

 

2013 2014 2015 2016
1.46 1.85 2.03 2.06

Those are the ratios the PS4 outsold the Xbox One each year until 2016. As you can see there's an equal number of below 2 to 1 years as there are above 2 to 1. The liftime ratio by the end of 2016 had the PS4 outselling the One by 1.92 to 1, which looking at those yearly ratios is definitely believable, right? It does swing more to the 2015/2016 numbers than the actual mean average would be, but that's because 2013 was simply such a small year compared to the others and throws off the average a fair bit.

Given the pattern so far it seems very likely that the PS4 lifetime sales will pass the 2 to 1 threshold, maybe even this year, but it does take a lot of consistency to actually increase the ratio, and at least it has increased quite a lot from the 2013 level.

 

Of course VGC's figures aren't 100% accurate and the PS4 may well already be over 2 times the Xbox One sales, but even then there would be differences between weekly/yearly/lifetime ratios since ratios are just annoying like that

perfectly explained.... have you been hanging out with shadow?



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Intrinsic on 11 March 2017
Hiku said:
palou said:

Yeah that's going to go below 40% as soon as the Switch hits the market...

I mean, the WiiU is kind of already dead for this year, so it was a two-way contest (which the PS4 soundly won against XBox, but that's nothing new...)

Are you counting both WiiU and Switch for marketshare of the same generation?
I wonder how that will be calculated on this site actually. When PS4 was released, PS3 sales were no longer counted when it came to marketshare for the current generation.

I was wondering the same thing..... its just strange counting both the wiiU and switch together. Especialluy when een ninteno has said it will be disontinued. 

If the switch is counted with the wiiU, then the PS4 market share drops. If it replaces the wiiU, then PS4 market share goes up. As does the XB1



Enemy on 11 March 2017

Good view but it still doesn't explain everything.

Holiday months affect NA more than any other territory. When the PS4 outsells Xbox One over two to one during nonholiday months it is mainly because of countries outside NA.

According to VGChartz, NA accounts for less than half of PS4 sales. I don't see NA holiday sales making up for the gap the PS4 gains from outselling Xbox One over two to one outside NA all year.  

According to the OP the sales gap during nonholiday months is substantial and this isn't new. It doesn't explain why VGChartz always has Xbox sitting at just above half of the PS4 lifetime total even during nonholiday months when the PS4 is outselling Xbox One over two to one. Lifetime totals never seem to reflect it. Their Xbox lifetime sales seem to shoot up out of thin air on occasion even during nonholiday months.   

Add this inconsistency to other facts. I understand VGChartz isn't 100% accurate and VGChartz has a record of undertracking PS4 lifetime sales whenever Sony releases sales numbers. Microsoft hides all Xbox One numbers and Sony provides hardware numbers, so PS4 sales aren't as difficult to track as Xbox One sales.

If we go by all of these inconsistencies I don't think the Xbox One has sold 28.5 million. It seems like VGChartz may just be using PS4 sales as a reference to make the Xbox One lifetime sales just above half of whatever the PS4 lifetime is at any given time because it is an easy way to track Xbox One sales even if it isn't accurate. That would explain why the Xbox One lifetime total never seems to reflect the weekly and monthly reports where the PS4 outsells Xbox One over two to one.  

 



Enemy on 11 March 2017

I think the Switch should be considered 9th gen.

I'm not going to pretend the Wii U didn't exist just to hide how Wii U owners were abandoned.

If Sony abandoned the PS4 after four years the internet would explode and we would never hear the end of it. People are still giving Sony hell over the Vita and Move.

I think people are giving Nintendo less hate because they aren't performing the best in the market right now and Nintendo fans are probably used to short gens and under supported hardware from Nintendo.



Kerotan on 11 March 2017
malistix1985 said:
Obv the year will end much differently, Xbox has a very slow start of the year with excellent games coming at the end of the year with Sea of Thieves, Cuphead, Cities Skylines, Path of Exile and Crackdown 3 & State of Decay 2 being console sellers.

Now we can pretty much assume Forza Motorsport 7 will also arrive this year and show some real 4k splender on the Scorpio since its a game that has had no problems on 1080p/60FPS on the console and I can confirm the engine is a true champ on PC.

Also the Switch with Mario, Zelda and Splatoon and a much better naming & system overall then the Wii-U will leave its oler brother way behind.

The PS4 on the other hand has started the year in LEGENDARY fashion with Nioh, Yakuza, Horizon, Persona, Nier and more its just an early year to remember.

Obv. Ps4 will remain the king for this entire generation but I do believe the Xbox One will come closer then before and the Switch will be a competitor and before the generation is done the Xbox One will outsell the PS4 in NA and the Switch will outsell the PS4 in Japan, I think.

Obviously you didn't read my opening post.  I'm comparing traditional home consoles only.  The Switch not only isn't a traditional home console (hybrid)  it's also not even part of the same gen as ps4/xb1/Wii U.  

 

Ps4 will increase its lead against traditional home consoles going forward and against the competition from its generation. 

 



4k1x3r on 11 March 2017
Enemy said:

Good view but it still doesn't explain everything.

Holiday months affect NA more than any other territory. When the PS4 outsells Xbox One over two to one during nonholiday months it is mainly because of countries outside NA.

According to VGChartz, NA accounts for less than half of PS4 sales. I don't see NA holiday sales making up for the gap the PS4 gains from outselling Xbox One over two to one outside NA all year.  

According to the OP the sales gap during nonholiday months is substantial and this isn't new. It doesn't explain why VGChartz always has Xbox sitting at just above half of the PS4 lifetime total even during nonholiday months when the PS4 is outselling Xbox One over two to one. Lifetime totals never seem to reflect it. Their Xbox lifetime sales seem to shoot up out of thin air on occasion even during nonholiday months.   

Add this inconsistency to other facts. I understand VGChartz isn't 100% accurate and VGChartz has a record of undertracking PS4 lifetime sales whenever Sony releases sales numbers. Microsoft hides all Xbox One numbers and Sony provides hardware numbers, so PS4 sales aren't as difficult to track as Xbox One sales.

If we go by all of these inconsistencies I don't think the Xbox One has sold 28.5 million. It seems like VGChartz may just be using PS4 sales as a reference to make the Xbox One lifetime sales just above half of whatever the PS4 lifetime is at any given time because it is an easy way to track Xbox One sales even if it isn't accurate. That would explain why the Xbox One lifetime total never seems to reflect the weekly and monthly reports where the PS4 outsells Xbox One over two to one.  

 

Reports from the manufacturers had the X1 at 26m when VGC had it at over 28m. So yea, this website is useless and the main reason people stay now is nostalgia and the forum.