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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Launch Sales Numbers are Manufactured?

Lenny93 said:
I'm very impressed by the ability of Nintendo naysayers to create elaborate explanations for Nintendo's success. It's as if they can't accept them doing well.

I think people are just interested to see what way it will go. Most people expected a successful launch but are still unsure how it will sell in 2 months or so. Nintendo may already have anticipated a slow down to a degree and not wanting to swamp retail with unsold stock will manage inventory better this time. I can't remember the 3DS situation but it's possible they were forced to drop prices due to the huge amount of unsold stock. By carefully managing stock they may not be forced into a huge price drop so soon this time. They may be anticipating a drop in sales but don't want to drop the price until the run up to Christmas perhaps September where as if there was 4 million consoles unsold on May 1st they would have to deal with a lot of returns costing a huge amount of money or drop the price. 

The only trouble with that is if the console becomes a low seller many retailers will drop or reduce stock of the console and move it to the back of the store etc. So its not like they can accept very low sales without doing something about it. If sales really dropped to very low levels they would have to either drop the price or allow it to be a niche product not widely stocked.

It will be interesting to see how this turns out for sure. I'd love to see the Switch do brilliantly well but you also have to factor in the price, performance level and range of games. However sometimes a product becomes more desirable than the sum of its parts and that could well be happening with Switch.



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Those are some solid alternative facts mate.



Lenny93 said:
I'm very impressed by the ability of Nintendo naysayers to create elaborate explanations for Nintendo's success. It's as if they can't accept them doing well.

!!



So, consumer demand counts for nothing?

It's obvious that if they had more Wiis at launch they would have sold more. But it might just be the case for Switch: had they made/shipped more and they would have also sold more. Why? Because the demand is there.

You are also forgetting something else.
Even if Nintendo made a gazillion of them, they wouldn't be able to put them on shelves if stores didn't order them in the first place. And they order based on pre-orders and consumer interest.

The idea that Nintendo decides how many they sell is not really a good idea.





naruball said:
What's with all the negative responses?

Part of what the op said makes sense. They made more consoles this time around so they sold more.

This is clever since they can create buzz with gaming sites reporting how it's breaking records, beating even the mighty ps4. Consumers see it as a must have item to own, the way they did with ps4. Weren't there stories of people going to stores to buy an xb1 and leaving with a ps4 because of everyone else getting a ps4? Casual gamers are much more easily persuaded than most of us here.

Hype and buzz can do wonderful things for a produce. Just look at iphone. I bought a wii because everyone was talking about it. And even though I was planning on buying a psvr, I may not any time soon. Companies need to rethink their console launches.

Even if they put 20 million consoles out that doesn't mean they were gonna sell out.



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RolStoppable said:
ArnoldRimmer said:

As I get it, you're basically just confirming my posting by saying that the WiiU launch was very much an exception from the usual console launches, as Nintendo did indeed "ship an insanely high amount of hardware units for launch" - resulting in the WiiU being one of the few consoles not being"sold out in most places shortly after launch".

Then you don't understand what I've been saying. Nintendo didn't ship an insanely high amount of Wii Us; the numbers were similar to Switch. Your argument is of the belief that whatever gets shipped will be sold, but that doesn't work if the demand isn't there.

I see, you apparently just didn't understand what I meant. When I talked about an "insanely high amount of hardware units for launch", I of course meant high in relation to actual demand.

RolStoppable said:

You'd be hard pressed to call 40k units an insanely high number

40k units IS an insanely high number if there is no actual demand.

I would even call 20k shipments to Japan an "insanely high number" if we were for example talking about the OUYA.



 

RolStoppable said:
ArnoldRimmer said:

As I get it, you're basically just confirming my posting by saying that the WiiU launch was very much an exception from the usual console launches, as Nintendo did indeed "ship an insanely high amount of hardware units for launch" - resulting in the WiiU being one of the few consoles not being"sold out in most places shortly after launch".

Then you don't understand what I've been saying. Nintendo didn't ship an insanely high amount of Wii Us; the numbers were similar to Switch. Your argument is of the belief that whatever gets shipped will be sold, but that doesn't work if the demand isn't there.

Another example would be the Xbox One launch in Japan where Microsoft shipped ~40k consoles and it took many months for the initial shipment to sell through. You'd be hard pressed to call 40k units an insanely high number when other consoles routinely launched to numbers of ~300k.

Now if the exception to your argument is always that there's no sufficient demand to break launch sales records, then the argument simply doesn't work in the first place. You and the OP assume that console manufacturers decide how high the launch sales are, but the prerequisite for that is that demand for the console definitely outpaces launch supply; in that case the console will be sold out in most places shortly after launch. But this is not always the case.

agreed

Plus, if all the people excited with the console are buying it now, the sales numbers will drop, so in the end the numbers will be balanced. We need to wait for the march complete figures.



God bless You.

My Total Sales prediction for PS4 by the end of 2021: 110m+

When PS4 will hit 100m consoles sold: Before Christmas 2019

There were three ravens sat on a tree / They were as blacke as they might be / The one of them said to his mate, Where shall we our breakfast take?


absurd logic. The only thing your theory, if accurate, would prove is that former Nintendo releases (console wise) could have been bigger than they were. It wouldn't change the amount of Switches Nintendo is selling now.

And obviously there's demand. People are paying like $400 online for the thing, if anyone is willing to pay over the MSRP store ask price then that says something.

Absurd conspiracy theories.

The reality is that forgetting casuals and other fanbases, a lot of Nintendo fans (like myself) didn't really like the Wii U and kind of skipped out last generation. I think one thing you're seeing is a lot of us being excited about the Switch and returning. I'm discussing regarding the launch and why they did sell out immediately of a decent launch number of systems. I do know that there were like 70 people at my Best Buy in line on launch night and most people appeared to be pretty pumped to get the system.

Again, the concept that there is some sort of ploy by Nintendo by providing MORE systems at launch is just stupid. They undership dramatically and you say they're trying to build hype, and then they ship more at this launch than they have previous launches and you say they're now bragging about sales numbers because of deliberately small previous ones. Its just ridiculous, whatever they do you guys say stuff.

All I know is I dig the Switch and skipped out for the Wii U (for the most part) so there's definitely a fraction of gamers who way more identify with the Switch than they did with the Wii U.

its a mega powered handheld system (for the gaming world), what's not to like 



SWORDF1SH said:
The OP is an example of a plausible opinion that wasn't explained well. I think I understand what OP is trying to say but since they aren't explaining themselves that great, it's going to get torn apart. The community here aren't forgiving enough to try and understand the OP so it's important you explain yourself properly, back it up with good reasons and debate your opinion. OP has failed on all 3 fronts.

but even in the most direct way what he's trying to say is a silly accusation based on whims. Yes, Nintendo, like any other console manufacturer, is aware of what their previous systems sold.

but simply making more systems available at launch than ever before doesn't gurantee a breaking of records. In fact the Wii U had a ton of systems available at launch (you could walk around into any store worldwide practically and there would be a pile of them), but that didn't magically make it 'break records'.

Nintendo's literal LAST home console generation stocking situation at launch sort of contradicts what the OP is saying. Because Nintendo already did this last gen, they provided a ton of Wii U's (and got burnt).

as someone else mentioned a few posts ago- you could put a million Ouya's out for sale at launch but they wouldn't have magically sold. You can't force the market to embrace your product. The OP is acting like Nintendo has some sort of gurantee that if they simple launch 2x or 3x their previous generations hardware numbers at launch that they'll sell through and then Nintendo will have some sort of artificial control over demand for systems/games.

But that's backwards thinking, the only way you can maintain demand is if people actually WANT and like the device. You can't ignore that.

 

no to mention the OP suggests that NIntendo launched in March because A) they wouldn't have enough hardware available  in time for a holiday 2016 launch, yet also B) that Nintendo artificially is doing this to 'break' records. Which totally is a contradition in logic.

If launching in March supposedly is some sort of method to 'break records', then launching in the holiday would have doubley broken records.

 

The OP's post is just a complete fallacy in logic and somewhat embarassing. Talk about clutching at straws. 

I mean, jesus, tells 'tales of record presales'? They can't accidentally lie about that information when the stock they provide is given to third party retailers and the retailers then have the information themselves.

You're welcome to hate but at least come up with some more logical accusations than this. Anyone can make up random stuff out of thin air based on nothing. "NIntendo is lying!" blah blah blah. Grow up.



naruball said:
What's with all the negative responses?

Part of what the op said makes sense. They made more consoles this time around so they sold more.

This is clever since they can create buzz with gaming sites reporting how it's breaking records, beating even the mighty ps4. Consumers see it as a must have item to own, the way they did with ps4. Weren't there stories of people going to stores to buy an xb1 and leaving with a ps4 because of everyone else getting a ps4? Casual gamers are much more easily persuaded than most of us here.

Hype and buzz can do wonderful things for a produce. Just look at iphone. I bought a wii because everyone was talking about it. And even though I was planning on buying a psvr, I may not any time soon. Companies need to rethink their console launches.

the Wii U had a massive amount of consoles available at launch. They did not sell through. You could find a Wii U practically anywhere in its first few days and week. 

the Wii U in itself already would have been an attempt at what the OP is implying Nintendo is magically doing now. They stocked heavily. But it didn't happen, systems do not always sell out at launch, despite what some of you may think.

I am almost certain the Wii U at launch had as many systems out in the wild as the Switch so this sort of breaks the OPs argument. Also, the argument that consumer buzz is what it causing an item to sell well on its own is absurd. There is buzz because a product is well liked, therefore the quality of the product is why its selling well.

To simply say "you can stock a ton of something and then it will do great!" is one of the worst economic arguments I've ever heard. Its entirely contingent on the device being well received. Which, again, the Wii U is an example of that NOT happening. The Switch so far is an example OF it happening. Not all devices launch to success.

Too many of you seem to be only following Playstation and Apple releases and don't keep an eye on the plethora of electronic devices that have poor launches.