Can't see VR working on Switch for commercial reasons mainly. Their pricing structure destroys the budget entry VR model and docked performance of the console looks weaker than expected. Most importantly they haven't made it a major part of the Switch promotion and without a healthy adoption rate there is little reason to make VR software. It feels pretty much like the VR potential of the Switch is dead.
If Nintendo don't abandon the Switch sometime this year and it gets to a revised model that would be the model to introduce VR but the appalling range of limited games means I really don't think there is much to see here. I think android is the future of budget VR. I love my Arealer Sky VR headset. The Sony PSVR is the logical next step for someone who wants something more powerful.
I don't agree that 720p is too low a resolution though I just think combining that with a $100 plastic headset and $60 games is just not commercially viable.
With all due respect, I disagree. I don't see how a cheap entry point does anything to the pricing structure. The audience who buys the Switch isn't comparable to the ones who buy mobile games. Their expectations when it comes to game quality and price are completely different. I don't think it's realistic at all to assume that someone buying a $100 headset won't buy a $60 game for it because they already bought a $300 dedicated gaming console prepared to pay $60 for big games. The expectation has already been set there. The HMD just acts as a new screen for those same $60 experiences.
Your second point is absurd. VR won't do well on the Switch because it wasn't marketed on the system before launch? VR wasn't marketed with computers, smartphones, or the PS4 at first either. It's an accessory, not a new platform - they can start marketing it whenever they want.
I don't really understand your last point, though. What appauling range of limited games? Knowing Nintendo and tech like this, no one pushes software designed for specific hardware more than they do. There wouldn't be an issue when it comes to software, at least not from the first party perspective, which is what VR needs. Lot's of compelling exclusive software to drive early adoption so that devs know there's an audience willing to buy games like this. That's why Wii and DS succeeded so much. Nintendo supported their gimmicks, people bought the systems, and devs saw money there. And they were cheap.
No one in VR is doing all of that today. That's why 99% of VR games look like cheap, unambitious tech demos. No one want's to spend the money on compelling software when it won't sell. You load up a $100 Switch VR set with Pilot Wings bundled in at launch, and Mario Kart VR, F-Zero VR, Star Fox VR, Metroid VR, and more down the road, and you've given VR it's bait.
Literally no one doing VR right now has that. The closest thing is Resi7 on PSVR - $400 for one premium game experience with no promise of similar experiences released regularly down the road and it doesn't even use motion controls. If Switch VR launches with Metroid Prime VR, a bundle with Pilot Wings VR, and an unlockable VR mode for MK8D via a free patch, it will already be in a much better place than any VR system has ever even hoped to be, and at launch. And so you know that's not absurd, that's basically what the Wii did with it's launch. Wii Sports Bundle and Zelda at launch. All I did was add an easy to implement patch to another game.
A potential three killer apps at launch for a $100 periferal. But Switch VR would be dead? Especially with the promise of more VR Nintendo games in the future? Not a chance.
Let's say Switch VR comes out in May 2018 - plenty of time to finish a new Metroid and VR Pilot Wings.
So it launches in May with Metorid Prime VR and Pilot Wings along with the patch. Obviously a few 3rd party games too.
Lets say that it only get's one big exclusive per quarter. That's still one in the summer, one in the Fall, and one during the holidays. Let's say F-Zero VR in the Summer, Star Fox VR in the Fall, and Pokemon VR for the Holidays. They could have smaller franchises like Punch-Out! VR, Endless Ocean VR, Nintendogs VR, Fatal Frame VR, Kid Icarus VR, Pikmin VR, Chibi-Robo, etc fill out the year. Nintendo has so many ways to leverage IP like this that it would be crazy for them not to do it. Nintendo's greatest weakness, the power of their hardware, would become their greatest strength because it forced them to create IP that looks create even with low quality polygons and texture assets, something franchises like Resident Evil haven't benefitted from.