Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

hmm, I think the tax rate is supposed to be going up in April, and IIRC the last time that happened here it had quite the negative effect on console sales. Given that I'd expect Switch to have a pretty poor summer, despite Splatoon 2. So I guess this will largely depend on how well it can do in the Autumn/early Winter. Meaning this prediction may well rest on Super Mario Odyssey living up to it's system selling potential.

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Lets say 2m in thé best scénario

Predictions for end of 2014 HW sales:

 PS4: 17m   XB1: 10m    WiiU: 10m   Vita: 10m

 

Aerys said:
Lets say 2m in thé best scénario

2Mil is the best case scenario? Do you kno what your saying :o



KBG29 said:
I would be 100% behind this if the thing had 4G LTE, calling, texting, and at least a couple dozen of the most popular apps. In fact I think a Nintendo Phone would be the biggest selling Phone platform in Japan.

The Switch I think will struggle after the inital launch, and will only pick up after a smaller more portable SKU is released, both at a lower price, and a seperate model with 4G, Texting, and calling at the $399.99 price point.

You are really overestimating the appeal of a gaming phone.

The majority of people who game on phones are not looking for the type of games on dedicated gaming devices, they primarily just want to play some simplistic little time wasters with little to no initial cost. They are not looking to play the more complex and immersive games that cost $40-60 that appear on dedicated gaming devices.

Only a very small and niche group of people will get rid of their iPhones, Galaxies, etc. for a Nintendo branded gaming phone. Competing with smartphones would be stupid, instead they should try to coexist, which is what they are doing.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
zelmusario said:
4 million just in Japan? That really IS bold! But I like your optimism.

Without a big system seller like Pokemon Stars, Yokai Watch, Animal Crossing, etc. I'm not sure this has a chance of coming true, though. Fire Emblem would help, but the Switch exclusive isn't due until 2018 and Dragon Quest isn't exclusive to Switch, either, if I recall.

Maybe there will be a few big exclusives announced at E3? Doubtful, but I'll be interested to see if you're right! I'd love it if Switch hits 4mil in Japan this year. If Nintendo can keep up with demand, at least.

You dont think Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, 3D Mario & Dragon Quest are big system sellers?

Absolutely, I would. But 4 million sounds like a lot without a more Japan-centric title. All of the ones you mentioned will be big, no doubt. It just seemed (with my limited amount of knowledge) like 4 million was a very ambitious prediction without Pokemon. But Switch hype is chugging along full-strength right now, so I would love to be proven wrong!  



It'll be awhile before I figure out how to do one of these. :P 

zelmusario said:
zorg1000 said:

You dont think Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, 3D Mario & Dragon Quest are big system sellers?

Absolutely, I would. But 4 million sounds like a lot without a more Japan-centric title. All of the ones you mentioned will be big, no doubt. It just seemed (with my limited amount of knowledge) like 4 million was a very ambitious prediction without Pokemon. But Switch hype is chugging along full-strength right now, so I would love to be proven wrong!  

Take a look at 3DS lineup in 2011 for comparison, it did 4.3 million that year. Here are the big sellers for 3DS in Japan in 2011 and the amount they sold that year.

Professor Layton Miracle Mask-355,000 (February)

Nintendogs+Cats-455,000 (February)

Ocarina of Time 3D-490,000 (June)

Monster Hunter 3G-987,000 (December)

Super Mario 3D Land-1,092,000 (November)

Mario Kart 7-1,190,000 (December)

So you had a couple of big launch titles in February and a few huge holiday titles with a 13 year old remaster as the only major title in between. Switch has a much better lineup of big games and they are spread out through the year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

why r u banned

I find Switch very difficult to predict, primarily because of how it differs from 3DS. So I wouldn't rule out your prediction.

zorg1000 said:
KBG29 said:
I would be 100% behind this if the thing had 4G LTE, calling, texting, and at least a couple dozen of the most popular apps. In fact I think a Nintendo Phone would be the biggest selling Phone platform in Japan.

The Switch I think will struggle after the inital launch, and will only pick up after a smaller more portable SKU is released, both at a lower price, and a seperate model with 4G, Texting, and calling at the $399.99 price point.

You are really overestimating the appeal of a gaming phone.

The majority of people who game on phones are not looking for the type of games on dedicated gaming devices, they primarily just want to play some simplistic little time wasters with little to no initial cost. They are not looking to play the more complex and immersive games that cost $40-60 that appear on dedicated gaming devices.

Only a very small and niche group of people will get rid of their iPhones, Galaxies, etc. for a Nintendo branded gaming phone. Competing with smartphones would be stupid, instead they should try to coexist, which is what they are doing.

A small niche of about 300 million people. 

There are millions and millions of people that would guve up android and ios it the could get a phone that played, Pokemon, Halo, Uncharted, or GTA, among many other titles.

Sure, mini games and free to play will always be popular in mobile, and those games have a place on a Nintendo Phone as well. In fact many people in the games industry in Japan are saying they would absolutely love to see those games on Switch.

Handhelds can not live in concert with mobile, they have to battle or they will become to irrelevant for great handheld games to be developed for. I can't imagine anyone that loves games wanting a future where ios and android is the top of the line mobile gaming experience.

Also, with the Switch and the whole concept Xbox and PlayStation are embracing, your $60 purchase will play on every one of the devices you own within that ecosystem. So yes people won't pay $60 for a mobile game, but they will pay it for a game hat works on thier phone, thier console, their tablet, their pc, and so on.



Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010

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zorg1000 said:
zelmusario said:

Absolutely, I would. But 4 million sounds like a lot without a more Japan-centric title. All of the ones you mentioned will be big, no doubt. It just seemed (with my limited amount of knowledge) like 4 million was a very ambitious prediction without Pokemon. But Switch hype is chugging along full-strength right now, so I would love to be proven wrong!  

Take a look at 3DS lineup in 2011 for comparison, it did 4.3 million that year. Here are the big sellers for 3DS in Japan in 2011 and the amount they sold that year.

Professor Layton Miracle Mask-355,000 (February)

Nintendogs+Cats-455,000 (February)

Ocarina of Time 3D-490,000 (June)

Monster Hunter 3G-987,000 (December)

Super Mario 3D Land-1,092,000 (November)

Mario Kart 7-1,190,000 (December)

So you had a couple of big launch titles in February and a few huge holiday titles with a 13 year old remaster as the only major title in between. Switch has a much better lineup of big games and they are spread out through the year.

What are you comparing?

You have been obsessed with the game library and ignoring the significance of price...

Mario kart 7 4.600 yen, 3DS 19.000 yen vs Mario kart 8 deluxe 6.800 yen, switch 29.000 yen!

Switch should sell like 3DS in the first year, if some of the wii audience returns!

The Game library much as attractive it is, people won't buy they product that it's on, if they find it overpriced/expensive! Switch for the 3ds owners who only want a portable console is overpriced/expensive.   Even ps4 having all that vast game library wouldn't sell so much if it was overpriced/expensive for its audience ( 499$). As I aforesaid, the 499$ xbox one was selling like wii u despite the huge third party support, they had to ditch kinect for xb1 to reach the regular 399$  price point for a robust console ( early at its lifetime )  in order its sales to skyrocket.

Hence, they will wait for a cheaper switch mini/lite or a low priced handheld only device that takes the same games.