Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

radishhead said:
VGChartz is literally the only place on the internet I see such pessimism for the Switch that I'm seeing in this thread. I think matching 3DS sales of 4 million is a very reasonable prediction- on the upper end of the sales I'd expect, but not completely ridiculous like some of you are making out.

$300 is not priced poorly. It's the most powerful handheld system on the market, is cheaper than its competitors, and is a breath of fresh air in a stagnating console market. I have no doubt the Switch will be very successful.

I don't understand it either.  One big thing that we fail to understand in the west is that the price of the Switch in Japan is the equivalent of $264.00 in US dollars -- a price which amazed a lot of Japanese developers for what the conosle offers.  Also, it has a games lineup that's more appealing to Japanese audiences than western ones, it's seen as an end of Nintendo's handheld/console market split, it appeals to current portable gaming trends in Japan and it's essentially replacing three platforms in Japan: the 3DS, Wii U and Playstation Vita.  When I take things further into consideration, 4m by the end of the year in Japan (or 'end of the fiscal year') seems attainable.



Around the Network
zorg1000 said:
ktay95 said:
3DS is still going strong though, if 3DS was as dead as WiiU and they marketed this as the true successor to both then I could see it having a chance at 4m

3DS has certainly begun to reach it's saturation point in Japan.

2011-4.3 million

2012-5.5 million

2013-5.1 million

2014-3.2 million

2015-2.2 million

2016-2million ( missing +100K from special 2DS pokemon blue/red/green edition in FEB-APR ) .

2017 sales will likely be under 1.5 million and the 15 million people who bought a 3DS in 2011-2013 are likely ready to upgrade.

Zorg, I think that you like so much switch concept  that makes you to overestimate the anywise big switch potential  in japan ( regarding 3ds userbase ) and disregard some facts.

Mostly, 3DS owners who have also a wii u will be ready to upgrade!

People who bought a 3ds between August 2011-2013 spent 19,000 yen... Will they spend 30,000 yen for switch? I mean those who don't care about home console gaming.  Do you remember 3DS sales perfomance at 25.000 yen?

 

As for 3DS sales in 2017,  it's currently flat wyoy ( ... if it will be selling 27k on average for th rest  47 weeks of the year, its sales would be 1.42m, so a good estimation by you!

Let's see the effect of switch on 3ds sales, if it will have any...

No 3DS backwards compatability on switch and so big price difference between the two gaming machines benefits 3DS onwards sales.



Definitely bold, I don't see it happening, but would be great if it did

Nintendo Metascore | Official NintenDomination | VGC Tutorial Thread

              

 

 

Here lies the hidden threads. 

 | | | Best and Worst of Miiverse | Manga Discussion Thead |
[3DS] Winter Playtimes [Wii U]

What I do think is possible is 4mil Switches shipped WW by the time "Splatoon 2" launches.

I'm sure Bethesda will be happier with a 5-6mil install base when "Skyrim" hits then they would have been releasing at launch window. If that game can break 2mil LT, we have a better chance of seeing more optimized AAAs hit the Switch for the portable aspect.

Retro Tech Select - My YouTube channel, covering vintage tech and classic vid'ya games! Check it out if you're halfways cool - subscribe if you're totally awesome!

I would be 100% behind this if the thing had 4G LTE, calling, texting, and at least a couple dozen of the most popular apps. In fact I think a Nintendo Phone would be the biggest selling Phone platform in Japan.

The Switch I think will struggle after the inital launch, and will only pick up after a smaller more portable SKU is released, both at a lower price, and a seperate model with 4G, Texting, and calling at the $399.99 price point.

Stop hate, let others live the life they were given. Everyone has their problems, and no one should have to feel ashamed for the way they were born. Be proud of who you are, encourage others to be proud of themselves. Learn, research, absorb everything around you. Nothing is meaningless, a purpose is placed on everything no matter how you perceive it. Discover how to love, and share that love with everything that you encounter. Help make existence a beautiful thing.

Kevyn B Grams
10/03/2010

It's certainly possible. It'll need more factors besides the games going for it though.
Splatoon and Mario, I'm sure will do gangbusters, ESPECIALLY Splatoon.
As a new IP, it's difficult to tell how well Arms is going to do by itself, let alone as a system seller if it is one. There have been a lot of Splatoon vibes coming from that game, so maybe it can, we'll have to wait and see.
Zelda... I'm not too sure about that.


If it gets aggressive deals and bundling around the major Japanese holidays like Obon week and the holidays, like a Splatoon 2 bundle, or a Super Mario Odyssey bundle with a Pro Controller at $329, or maybe even a price cut, then I definitely think it can pull it off.



If the Japanese market views it primarily as a handheld, then 4M is certainly plausible by year's end considering the performance of the 3DS, DS, and GBA.

Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

U.S. 2016 Sales Predictions vs. NPD actuals
PS4: 6.5M (actual: 5.09M); XBO: 5.75M (actual: 4.78M); Wii U: 1M (actual: 0.46M)

Global 2016 Sales Predictions vs. Sony actuals (for PS4) and VGC estimates (for XBO & Wii U)
PS4: 19M (actual: 17.5M); XBO: 9M (VGC est.: 8.3M); Wii U: 2.5M (VGC est.: 1.53M)

I think 4 millions worldwide is a given, but only in Japan is a little too confident. Lets hope it becomes true.

Around the Network
wombat123 said:
radishhead said:
VGChartz is literally the only place on the internet I see such pessimism for the Switch that I'm seeing in this thread. I think matching 3DS sales of 4 million is a very reasonable prediction- on the upper end of the sales I'd expect, but not completely ridiculous like some of you are making out.

$300 is not priced poorly. It's the most powerful handheld system on the market, is cheaper than its competitors, and is a breath of fresh air in a stagnating console market. I have no doubt the Switch will be very successful.

I don't understand it either.  One big thing that we fail to understand in the west is that the price of the Switch in Japan is the equivalent of $264.00 in US dollars -- a price which amazed a lot of Japanese developers for what the conosle offers.  Also, it has a games lineup that's more appealing to Japanese audiences than western ones, it's seen as an end of Nintendo's handheld/console market split, it appeals to current portable gaming trends in Japan and it's essentially replacing three platforms in Japan: the 3DS, Wii U and Playstation VIta.  When I take things further into consideration, 4m by the end of the year in Japan (or 'end of the fiscal year') seems attainable.

It's the first time I read the Switch is replacing three consoles but I think you got it right.