Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

jonathanalis said:

How about that one:


I don't know about that. If Switch was supposed to play 3DS cards, then it would already play them; besides, by the end of 2018 it wouldn't be a desired feature anymore. Your estimate for cost savings by ditching the dock and Joy-Con grip are too high, because accessories have a high mark-up.

Above all though, I don't consider Switch pricing to be so bad that we would need a $150 (or $180) model by the end of 2018. Price cuts and revisions will eventually come, but I don't think they'll be close to your ideas.

Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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Bofferbrauer2 said:
How did I just know that this was a Tbone thread, ;)

4 Million is pretty bold, but considering the rush on the Switch in Japan, possibly doable

How did you know??? :p

If Pokemon Stars is real then I can easily see this being the case.

ktay95 said:
3DS is still going strong though, if 3DS was as dead as WiiU and they marketed this as the true successor to both then I could see it having a chance at 4m

3DS has certainly begun to reach it's saturation point in Japan.

2011-4.3 million

2012-5.5 million

2013-5.1 million

2014-3.2 million

2015-2.2 million

2016-2.0 million

2017 sales will likely be under 1.5 million and the 15 million people who bought a 3DS in 2011-2013 are likely ready to upgrade.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

2-3 million seems more reasonable. Lifetime, I could most definitely see it do over 10.

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I've come to appreciate your optimism, tbone. At least when dealing with the Switch.

Carl is a Piplup hater and deserves to be punished eternally.

Monster Hunter + Splatoon + Pokemon or Yokai announced (no release necessary) and the Switch will do 2 million in Japan by year's end. 4 million would take a bit of a miracle. I honestly don't think Nintendo will get more than 10 million shipped worldwide, regardless of sales. They haven't had the fastest turn-around on shortages.

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Apparently its a "handheld" so of course!

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Jranation said:
Apparently its a "handheld" so of course!

Its not a HH. It just has a HH mode :p

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tbone51 said:
Jranation said:
Apparently its a "handheld" so of course!

Its not a HH. It just has a HH mode :p

And that is why it can outsell the Wii U LT in Japan FY! XD

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