Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

zelmusario said:
4 million just in Japan? That really IS bold! But I like your optimism.

Without a big system seller like Pokemon Stars, Yokai Watch, Animal Crossing, etc. I'm not sure this has a chance of coming true, though. Fire Emblem would help, but the Switch exclusive isn't due until 2018 and Dragon Quest isn't exclusive to Switch, either, if I recall.

Maybe there will be a few big exclusives announced at E3? Doubtful, but I'll be interested to see if you're right! I'd love it if Switch hits 4mil in Japan this year. If Nintendo can keep up with demand, at least.

You dont think Zelda, Mario Kart, Splatoon, 3D Mario & Dragon Quest are big system sellers?



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No chance, even if it gets an exclusive pokemon and monster hunter game. 



I see it possible if Pokémon Stars is Real, but very though...

Arkaign said:

Agreed, iPhone and Android have simply pushed too far into the mobile space for dedicated handhelds to be massively successful any more. Combo that with pricing that is effectively higher than PS4/Xbox One, and it's looking like another WiiU to me.

Nintendo is in a tough spot with the thing, because 3DS is still selling, the only handheld to do much of anything, so they're effectively competing against themselves despite the 'unified' production idea.

This all could have been fixed with a dedicated handheld version for $199 or so, 4" screen with non-removable controller integration and no included dock.

In fact, two SKUs would have been probably far more successful than the gimmicky thing they're putting out.

Model 1 : The 4" dedicated handheld listed above : $199.

Model 2 : A dedicated home model, no screen or mobile aspect whatsoever : $149

Play the exact same games, unify their development/etc, but with models specific to purpose instead of the expensive, chunky not-quite-convenient thing they've come up with. Hugely less expensive to the consumer, and for the superfans like those that have both 3DS and WiiU, those people would probably buy both models anyway.

The decision to go with touchscreen probably makes this impossible now though, even as a later SKU growth. At best a smaller handheld variant may come out, but an affordable screenless home model for people who don't care about traveling with it at all is out of the question.

I hate touchscreen gaming, so I don't bother with phone/tablet games either, but those that don't mind it mostly play iOS/Android anyway.

Even withiout the awful accessory pricing, $299 is going to really stunt this thing out of the gate IMHO, once the superfans get through with the first shipment. It reminds me a lot of the XB1 annoucnement and plans, where they clearly expected to be the dominant console of the gen, thought that forcing Kinect and $499 USD was all just great. And sure enough, the hardcore Xbox fans almost universally agreed with all of that (check the forums back then, it was as you'd expect : XB fans saying 'yay, this is just fine', and literally everyone else saying 'wtf, really?'). The XB1 initial plans seemed to have been developed in an echo-chamber of yes-men with no critical big-picture analysis, and it really seems to me this NS launch plan is yet another thing that probably sounds great to many of the supercore Nintendo fans, but doesn't light up the regular consumer at all. As seen by the Dreamcast and WiiU, aiming square at your biggest fans is not a guarantee of success. And I really liked both of those systems (despite thinking the WiiU tablet was a mistake, and the pricing was terrible).

I'm sure all of that sounds incredibly harsh, but it's what I'm seeing. Despite all of that, I still think Nintendo has the best overall 1st party in the industry.

"Harsh" isn't the adjective I would use, "stupid" sums it up better. The underlying issue is that Switch is not something that you wanted, so your reasoning is stuck in the territory of a mindless rant.

Switch is the size it is because it's physically impossible to use such a chipset in a smaller case without overheating, plus battery life would be poor. An inferior chipset would have made the system weaker than Wii U, but that's not something that Nintendo wanted, nor something that you would have wanted. Your text reads like it comes from someone who doesn't want to bother with handhelds at all. This leads to the part about the touchscreen which doesn't make sense at all. So far there are no indicators whatsoever that the touchscreen would be mandatory for anything, plus all the games shown so far usually offer multiple controller options.

I'd like to say more, but there isn't much worth addressing in your post. Am I right about you not liking handhelds at all?



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Biased reviews are a pleasure to read. Just my opinion, of course.

VGChartz is literally the only place on the internet I see such pessimism for the Switch that I'm seeing in this thread. I think matching 3DS sales of 4 million is a very reasonable prediction- on the upper end of the sales I'd expect, but not completely ridiculous like some of you are making out.

$300 is not priced poorly. It's the most powerful handheld system on the market, is cheaper than its competitors, and is a breath of fresh air in a stagnating console market. I have no doubt the Switch will be very successful.

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3DS is still going strong though, if 3DS was as dead as WiiU and they marketed this as the true successor to both then I could see it having a chance at 4m

How did I just know that this was a Tbone thread, ;)

4 Million is pretty bold, but considering the rush on the Switch in Japan, possibly doable

Bold, but certainly not impossible.

RolStoppable said:
Arkaign said:

Agreed, iPhone and Android have simply pushed too far into the mobile space for dedicated handhelds to be massively successful any more. Combo that with pricing that is effectively higher than PS4/Xbox One, and it's looking like another WiiU to me.

Nintendo is in a tough spot with the thing, because 3DS is still selling, the only handheld to do much of anything, so they're effectively competing against themselves despite the 'unified' production idea.

This all could have been fixed with a dedicated handheld version for $199 or so, 4" screen with non-removable controller integration and no included dock.

In fact, two SKUs would have been probably far more successful than the gimmicky thing they're putting out.

Model 1 : The 4" dedicated handheld listed above : $199.

Model 2 : A dedicated home model, no screen or mobile aspect whatsoever : $149

Play the exact same games, unify their development/etc, but with models specific to purpose instead of the expensive, chunky not-quite-convenient thing they've come up with. Hugely less expensive to the consumer, and for the superfans like those that have both 3DS and WiiU, those people would probably buy both models anyway.

The decision to go with touchscreen probably makes this impossible now though, even as a later SKU growth. At best a smaller handheld variant may come out, but an affordable screenless home model for people who don't care about traveling with it at all is out of the question.

I hate touchscreen gaming, so I don't bother with phone/tablet games either, but those that don't mind it mostly play iOS/Android anyway.

Even withiout the awful accessory pricing, $299 is going to really stunt this thing out of the gate IMHO, once the superfans get through with the first shipment. It reminds me a lot of the XB1 annoucnement and plans, where they clearly expected to be the dominant console of the gen, thought that forcing Kinect and $499 USD was all just great. And sure enough, the hardcore Xbox fans almost universally agreed with all of that (check the forums back then, it was as you'd expect : XB fans saying 'yay, this is just fine', and literally everyone else saying 'wtf, really?'). The XB1 initial plans seemed to have been developed in an echo-chamber of yes-men with no critical big-picture analysis, and it really seems to me this NS launch plan is yet another thing that probably sounds great to many of the supercore Nintendo fans, but doesn't light up the regular consumer at all. As seen by the Dreamcast and WiiU, aiming square at your biggest fans is not a guarantee of success. And I really liked both of those systems (despite thinking the WiiU tablet was a mistake, and the pricing was terrible).

I'm sure all of that sounds incredibly harsh, but it's what I'm seeing. Despite all of that, I still think Nintendo has the best overall 1st party in the industry.

"Harsh" isn't the adjective I would use, "stupid" sums it up better. The underlying issue is that Switch is not something that you wanted, so your reasoning is stuck in the territory of a mindless rant.

Switch is the size it is because it's physically impossible to use such a chipset in a smaller case without overheating, plus battery life would be poor. An inferior chipset would have made the system weaker than Wii U, but that's not something that Nintendo wanted, nor something that you would have wanted. Your text reads like it comes from someone who doesn't want to bother with handhelds at all. This leads to the part about the touchscreen which doesn't make sense at all. So far there are no indicators whatsoever that the touchscreen would be mandatory for anything, plus all the games shown so far usually offer multiple controller options.

I'd like to say more, but there isn't much worth addressing in your post. Am I right about you not liking handhelds at all?

How about that one:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=225569

?



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Maybe... I think it's possible. WiiU hasn't sold 4 million YET, and the PS4 just sold over 4 million.

But Japan is all about handhelds, and with a Zelda game at launch, I think it'll be close.