By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

How did I just know that this was a Tbone thread, ;)

4 Million is pretty bold, but considering the rush on the Switch in Japan, possibly doable



Around the Network

Bold, but certainly not impossible.



RolStoppable said:
Arkaign said:

Agreed, iPhone and Android have simply pushed too far into the mobile space for dedicated handhelds to be massively successful any more. Combo that with pricing that is effectively higher than PS4/Xbox One, and it's looking like another WiiU to me.

Nintendo is in a tough spot with the thing, because 3DS is still selling, the only handheld to do much of anything, so they're effectively competing against themselves despite the 'unified' production idea.

This all could have been fixed with a dedicated handheld version for $199 or so, 4" screen with non-removable controller integration and no included dock.

In fact, two SKUs would have been probably far more successful than the gimmicky thing they're putting out.

Model 1 : The 4" dedicated handheld listed above : $199.

Model 2 : A dedicated home model, no screen or mobile aspect whatsoever : $149

Play the exact same games, unify their development/etc, but with models specific to purpose instead of the expensive, chunky not-quite-convenient thing they've come up with. Hugely less expensive to the consumer, and for the superfans like those that have both 3DS and WiiU, those people would probably buy both models anyway.

The decision to go with touchscreen probably makes this impossible now though, even as a later SKU growth. At best a smaller handheld variant may come out, but an affordable screenless home model for people who don't care about traveling with it at all is out of the question.

I hate touchscreen gaming, so I don't bother with phone/tablet games either, but those that don't mind it mostly play iOS/Android anyway.

Even withiout the awful accessory pricing, $299 is going to really stunt this thing out of the gate IMHO, once the superfans get through with the first shipment. It reminds me a lot of the XB1 annoucnement and plans, where they clearly expected to be the dominant console of the gen, thought that forcing Kinect and $499 USD was all just great. And sure enough, the hardcore Xbox fans almost universally agreed with all of that (check the forums back then, it was as you'd expect : XB fans saying 'yay, this is just fine', and literally everyone else saying 'wtf, really?'). The XB1 initial plans seemed to have been developed in an echo-chamber of yes-men with no critical big-picture analysis, and it really seems to me this NS launch plan is yet another thing that probably sounds great to many of the supercore Nintendo fans, but doesn't light up the regular consumer at all. As seen by the Dreamcast and WiiU, aiming square at your biggest fans is not a guarantee of success. And I really liked both of those systems (despite thinking the WiiU tablet was a mistake, and the pricing was terrible).

I'm sure all of that sounds incredibly harsh, but it's what I'm seeing. Despite all of that, I still think Nintendo has the best overall 1st party in the industry.

"Harsh" isn't the adjective I would use, "stupid" sums it up better. The underlying issue is that Switch is not something that you wanted, so your reasoning is stuck in the territory of a mindless rant.

Switch is the size it is because it's physically impossible to use such a chipset in a smaller case without overheating, plus battery life would be poor. An inferior chipset would have made the system weaker than Wii U, but that's not something that Nintendo wanted, nor something that you would have wanted. Your text reads like it comes from someone who doesn't want to bother with handhelds at all. This leads to the part about the touchscreen which doesn't make sense at all. So far there are no indicators whatsoever that the touchscreen would be mandatory for anything, plus all the games shown so far usually offer multiple controller options.

I'd like to say more, but there isn't much worth addressing in your post. Am I right about you not liking handhelds at all?

How about that one:

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=225569

?



Maybe... I think it's possible. WiiU hasn't sold 4 million YET, and the PS4 just sold over 4 million.

But Japan is all about handhelds, and with a Zelda game at launch, I think it'll be close.



Bofferbrauer2 said:
How did I just know that this was a Tbone thread, ;)

4 Million is pretty bold, but considering the rush on the Switch in Japan, possibly doable

How did you know??? :p



Around the Network

If Pokemon Stars is real then I can easily see this being the case.



ktay95 said:
3DS is still going strong though, if 3DS was as dead as WiiU and they marketed this as the true successor to both then I could see it having a chance at 4m

3DS has certainly begun to reach it's saturation point in Japan.

2011-4.3 million

2012-5.5 million

2013-5.1 million

2014-3.2 million

2015-2.2 million

2016-2.0 million

2017 sales will likely be under 1.5 million and the 15 million people who bought a 3DS in 2011-2013 are likely ready to upgrade.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

2-3 million seems more reasonable. Lifetime, I could most definitely see it do over 10.



Bet with PeH: 

I win if Arms sells over 700 000 units worldwide by the end of 2017.

Bet with WagnerPaiva:

 

I win if Emmanuel Macron wins the french presidential election May 7th 2017.

I've come to appreciate your optimism, tbone. At least when dealing with the Switch.



Monster Hunter + Splatoon + Pokemon or Yokai announced (no release necessary) and the Switch will do 2 million in Japan by year's end. 4 million would take a bit of a miracle. I honestly don't think Nintendo will get more than 10 million shipped worldwide, regardless of sales. They haven't had the fastest turn-around on shortages.



Retro Tech Select - My Youtube channel. Covers throwback consumer electronics with a focus on "vid'ya games."

Latest Video: Top 12: Best Games on the N64 - Special Features, Episode 7