Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

I think that demand will be high, so it could possibly hit that mark. Now, the problem is if Nintendo is capable of manufacturing a huge ammount of Switch.

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In Japan alone? No.

Green098 said:
Japan makes up the highest portion of 3DS sales with well over 20 million sold there.

3DS sales are a pretty even split among the three major regions. According to Nintendo's latest shipment numbers they are

Japan-23.13 million

Americas-21.96 million

Other-20.21 million



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

4 million may be pushing it, i think over 3 million though is very likely.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Bandorr said:
zorg1000 said:

3DS sold over 4 million in 2011 and over 5 million in 2012 & 2013 each.

It was also cheaper (by $50). Then A LOT cheaper with that immediate and desperate $80 price drop. And that was all before Mobile gaming.

So it is $130 more in a post-mobile gaming era.

Again I don't see it doing wii or 3ds numbers like that.

Agreed, iPhone and Android have simply pushed too far into the mobile space for dedicated handhelds to be massively successful any more. Combo that with pricing that is effectively higher than PS4/Xbox One, and it's looking like another WiiU to me.

Nintendo is in a tough spot with the thing, because 3DS is still selling, the only handheld to do much of anything, so they're effectively competing against themselves despite the 'unified' production idea.

This all could have been fixed with a dedicated handheld version for $199 or so, 4" screen with non-removable controller integration and no included dock.

In fact, two SKUs would have been probably far more successful than the gimmicky thing they're putting out.

Model 1 : The 4" dedicated handheld listed above : $199.

Model 2 : A dedicated home model, no screen or mobile aspect whatsoever : $149

Play the exact same games, unify their development/etc, but with models specific to purpose instead of the expensive, chunky not-quite-convenient thing they've come up with. Hugely less expensive to the consumer, and for the superfans like those that have both 3DS and WiiU, those people would probably buy both models anyway.

The decision to go with touchscreen probably makes this impossible now though, even as a later SKU growth. At best a smaller handheld variant may come out, but an affordable screenless home model for people who don't care about traveling with it at all is out of the question.

I hate touchscreen gaming, so I don't bother with phone/tablet games either, but those that don't mind it mostly play iOS/Android anyway.

Even withiout the awful accessory pricing, $299 is going to really stunt this thing out of the gate IMHO, once the superfans get through with the first shipment. It reminds me a lot of the XB1 annoucnement and plans, where they clearly expected to be the dominant console of the gen, thought that forcing Kinect and $499 USD was all just great. And sure enough, the hardcore Xbox fans almost universally agreed with all of that (check the forums back then, it was as you'd expect : XB fans saying 'yay, this is just fine', and literally everyone else saying 'wtf, really?'). The XB1 initial plans seemed to have been developed in an echo-chamber of yes-men with no critical big-picture analysis, and it really seems to me this NS launch plan is yet another thing that probably sounds great to many of the supercore Nintendo fans, but doesn't light up the regular consumer at all. As seen by the Dreamcast and WiiU, aiming square at your biggest fans is not a guarantee of success. And I really liked both of those systems (despite thinking the WiiU tablet was a mistake, and the pricing was terrible).

I'm sure all of that sounds incredibly harsh, but it's what I'm seeing. Despite all of that, I still think Nintendo has the best overall 1st party in the industry.



zorg1000 said:
Green098 said:
Japan makes up the highest portion of 3DS sales with well over 20 million sold there.

3DS sales are a pretty even split among the three major regions. According to Nintendo's latest shipment numbers they are

Japan-23.13 million

Americas-21.96 million

Other-20.21 million

Yeah I know, but Japan is on top which is much more of a notable achievement since it has the smallest population of the three by far.



Arkaign said:

Combo that with pricing that is effectively higher than PS4/Xbox One, and it's looking like another WiiU to me.

This thread is about Japan where Xbox One is irrelevant and Playstation 4 is not doing great either, they will have almost zero impact on how well Switch sells there.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

4 million just in Japan? That really IS bold! But I like your optimism.

Without a big system seller like Pokemon Stars, Yokai Watch, Animal Crossing, etc. I'm not sure this has a chance of coming true, though. Fire Emblem would help, but the Switch exclusive isn't due until 2018 and Dragon Quest isn't exclusive to Switch, either, if I recall.

Maybe there will be a few big exclusives announced at E3? Doubtful, but I'll be interested to see if you're right! I'd love it if Switch hits 4mil in Japan this year. If Nintendo can keep up with demand, at least.

It'll be awhile before I figure out how to do one of these. :P 

Green098 said:
zorg1000 said:

3DS sales are a pretty even split among the three major regions. According to Nintendo's latest shipment numbers they are

Japan-23.13 million

Americas-21.96 million

Other-20.21 million

Yeah I know, but Japan is on top which is much more of a notable achievement since it has the smallest population of the three by far.

Yep for sure, i was just throwing that out there because alot of people seem to think the majority of 3DS sales come from Japan.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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zorg1000 said:
Arkaign said:

Combo that with pricing that is effectively higher than PS4/Xbox One, and it's looking like another WiiU to me.

This thread is about Japan where Xbox One is irrelevant and Playstation 4 is not doing great either, they will have almost zero impact on how well Switch sells there.

True, but Japan's global share of the non-iOS/Android gaming market is pretty much nil anyway, sad to say.

But fine : 4M units in Japan at ~$300? No way on earth. Even 3M would be a gargantuan achievement for something priced so poorly.