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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo expects to sell 35 million Wii in the USA

vanguardian1 on 23 May 2007

I think if it's one thing we can agree on is the thought that this generation of video gaming is the least predictable yet. :)



Nobody is crazy enough to accuse me of being sane.

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Alacrist on 23 May 2007
TheSource said:

Hmm..they have sold 2.7 millionish in the USA so far..3.05 millionish in North America..So...32 million over the next 4-5 years in the USA?

I imagine they hope it goes something like this in the USA:

2006 - 1.1 million

2007 - 7 million

2008 - 7 million

2009 - 7 million

2010 - 5 million

2011 - 3 million

2012 - 1.5 million

 


Monthly the Wii who have to sell (if I did this right)

2007- 583,000

2008- 583,000

2009- 583,000

2010- 417,000

2011- 250,000

2012- 125,000

 



 

  

 

fishamaphone on 23 May 2007
davygee said:

35m is very optimistic IMHO.

Yes the Wii has had a brilliant start in all three markets and has done well to convert no-gamers into buying Wii's, but getting to 35m in the US alone in 5 years time is no easy feat. It has taken the PS2 7 years to get to over 387-38m and this was when there was totally different competition. Also, we have to take the handheld market into account, because I honestly feel that they are and will take sales away from the potential home console buyers.

As I've stated before, I don't think the Wii will have a long lifespan and feel that 2007 and 2008 will be it's best years (sales) wise...then it will decline over the next 2 years.

There has been 3m sales in America so far since it's release 6 months ago and these figures include Canada as well...so I'm not too sure what the actual US figures are....but to get 35 million by 2012, then they will need to sell at least 32 million over 5 years...thats over 6m a year on average in the US alone. Which means that they will need to keep sales at exactly the same level they have been at already constantly for 5 years....no way!!!

A more realistic number IMHO is closer to 25m by 2012


 Just to put things in perspective... Nintendo is currently producing Wii at 1.2 million/month. 

They're producing DS at 2 million/month.

I'd honestly be surprized if Wii sales stay at the exact same level for five years.


I expect them to increase.



megaxl on 23 May 2007

they could sell 35 or 40 million of wii in USA, but the more interesting thing is what happen if nintendo up the production and officially begin to sell wii in India, Rusia and China, the wii are a very cheap machine, and this regions up his economy in the recently years, will be the craziest thing in many years, could sell 200 or 300 million worldwide, i dont know,everything depends in the ambition and strategy of nintendo.



jlauro on 23 May 2007
Rath said:
Which means that they will need to keep sales at exactly the same level they have been at already constantly for 5 years....no way!!! Thats generally what the leading console for a generation does, Id post a graph comparing snes ps2 and ps1 (the last three leading consoles) but the graph thing doesnt seem to be working. Anyway the leading console generally seems to have a spike at launch then have a flat line of weekly sales interrupted by more spikes as events such as game releases and price cuts occur and only falter at the coming of the next gen.

Here is a graph:

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=PS&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&align=1

 

The wii beats both ps and ps2 by far. The really surprising one, is it beats the DS too! (wii, ds, and ps2).

http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=All&cons2=DS&reg2=All&cons3=PS2&reg3=All&align=1

 

(The graphs are Japan+America. America only still have wii on top, but closer).



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jlauro on 23 May 2007

One more graph, just looking at America: http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS2&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America&align=1 Which shows Nintendo might fall behind PS2 numbers during the holiday season if they don't do something about production! They are barely ahead of ps2 launch numbers in America it looks like, and you can see PS2 had a big holiday boost of over 500K/week...



davygee on 23 May 2007

Both the 360 and PS3 will have to seriously flop over the coming 4-5 years for the Wii to have a chance of recreating the numbers the PS2 had....but one thing you are forgetting about? The lifespan of the Wii! Obviously Nintendo reckons that it will last until 2012 at least...but I have my reservations. That means they expect it to have a 6 year lifespan at least...I would sit it at 4-5 years in total with development in games slowing down come 2009.



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Permanent pricedrop for both PS4 Slim and PS4 Pro in October.

PS4 Slim $249 (October 2017)

PS4 Pro $349 (October 2017)

Vengi on 23 May 2007
megaxl said:
they could sell 35 or 40 million of wii in USA, but the more interesting thing is what happen if nintendo up the production and officially begin to sell wii in India, Rusia and China, the wii are a very cheap machine, and this regions up his economy in the recently years, will be the craziest thing in many years, could sell 200 or 300 million worldwide, i dont know,everything depends in the ambition and strategy of nintendo.

Very good point, China and India are emerging markets, the new middle class might actually have a greater inpact on sales then any other factor, Wii is the cheapest console so it's most likely to sell there, even if all the games in China and India are pirate, nintendo would still make some profit due to the hardware sales.

 



"..just keep on trying 'till you run out of cake"

jlauro on 23 May 2007
davygee said:
Both the 360 and PS3 will have to seriously flop over the coming 4-5 years for the Wii to have a chance of recreating the numbers the PS2 had....but one thing you are forgetting about? The lifespan of the Wii! Obviously Nintendo reckons that it will last until 2012 at least...but I have my reservations. That means they expect it to have a 6 year lifespan at least...I would sit it at 4-5 years in total with development in games slowing down come 2009.

The PS3 already flopped over.  That said, it's too soon to say how it will do this holiday season once there are more games out, so I am not counting the PS3 out.

That said, even if the PS3 and 360 do well, there is enough difference in the wii, and enough room for growing the market (seniors, etc...) that the wii can sell to whole different crowds than the PS2/360/PS3...  The360/PS3 are far less likely to get a significant portion of the expanded market.

5-6 years sounds right to me.  That said, there will be revisions...  We will start to see color choices once demand lowers, etc...  after a few years, probably a hardware rev (like the slim line PS2), where it doesn't change software, but allows then to make them at a lower cost, etc... 



Darc Requiem on 23 May 2007
davygee said:
Both the 360 and PS3 will have to seriously flop over the coming 4-5 years for the Wii to have a chance of recreating the numbers the PS2 had....but one thing you are forgetting about? The lifespan of the Wii! Obviously Nintendo reckons that it will last until 2012 at least...but I have my reservations. That means they expect it to have a 6 year lifespan at least...I would sit it at 4-5 years in total with development in games slowing down come 2009.

 You are forgetting something. A systems sales not is hardware potential determine its life span. It won't matter how powerful the PS3 is and how weak the Wii is from a horsepower standpoint if the sales trends continue down their current path. The 360 is the only system that can keep the Wii from reaching Nintendo's 35 million unit goal. The 360 will hit a mass market prices point far earlier than the PS3 will.