When was the last time a console pretty much sold out for 7 months straight in all 3 regions?

I don't believe it.

2006/2007

7m

2008

14

2009

15

2010

12

2011

8

TOTAL 56m NA

This sounds clearly possible, but remember what Nintendo did with the DS - it sells like crazy, but still the PSP could reach 40-50 million units worldwide. At this point in time, the DS just reached GBA sales in US+Japan if you align launches (of course Europe is another story: the DS nearly sold as much as the GBA ever did in it´s life over here) but the PSP sold about 15m in these two regions, too. This is a big growth since last Gen and I expect the Wii to expand the market in about the same dimensions...

 basically that means average sales of little over 500K a month, very possible

I think it is inevitable that Wii creates a large amount of lapsed gamers. Just like there are people who talk about the glory years of Atari 2600, or the glory years of SNES/Genesis, there will be those who remember the glory years of PS2. The second generation dominated by one way of thinking always creates this effect. But to Nintendo, the untapped market segments vastly outweigh the portion of the existing market which may quit gaming, especially considering the bulk of those gamers were buying PlayStation consoles exclusively.

Why 35 million? Why 3 million less than the Playstation 2? I mean, come on, if the prediction is that close to what Sony achieved last generation, you might as well just say 39 million. If Nintendo truely wants to take back the crown, they can't just beat the Playstation 3, but also the Playstation 2. No Nintendo. You are not going to sell 35 million. You are going to sell 39 million. No... 50 million in the United States!

Well, even if they do sell 35 million in the United States, they will sell so much more in the other parts of the world, that at the end, it should outsell the Playstation 2.

They won't be able to pass the PS2's numbers because there won't be as many people needing to buy replacement consoles because of bad hardware reliability. ;)

35m is very optimistic IMHO.

Yes the Wii has had a brilliant start in all three markets and has done well to convert no-gamers into buying Wii's, but getting to 35m in the US alone in 5 years time is no easy feat.  It has taken the PS2 7 years to get to over 387-38m and this was when there was totally different competition.  Also, we have to take the handheld market into account, because I honestly feel that they are and will take sales away from the potential home console buyers.

As I've stated before, I don't think the Wii will have a long lifespan and feel that 2007 and 2008 will be it's best years (sales) wise...then it will decline over the next 2 years.

There has been 3m sales in America so far since it's release 6 months ago and these figures include Canada as well...so I'm not too sure what the actual US figures are....but to get 35 million by 2012, then they will need to sell at least 32 million over 5 years...thats over 6m a year on average in the US alone.  Which means that they will need to keep sales at exactly the same level they have been at already constantly for 5 years....no way!!!

A more realistic number IMHO is closer to 25m by 2012

Which means that they will need to keep sales at exactly the same level they have been at already constantly for 5 years....no way!!! Thats generally what the leading console for a generation does, Id post a graph comparing snes ps2 and ps1 (the last three leading consoles) but the graph thing doesnt seem to be working. Anyway the leading console generally seems to have a spike at launch then have a flat line of weekly sales interrupted by more spikes as events such as game releases and price cuts occur and only falter at the coming of the next gen.