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PS4/X1 sales to peak this year and keep it for 2018?

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Turkish said:

If $199 PS4 is coming,  then 2017 will be peak. It has the best library, it gets 4 system sellers with marketing rights in Destiny 2, SWBF2, RDR2 and their own GT:S

They will ride it out in 2018 with bundles and then announce the PS5 early 2019 at the PS Meeting.

2017: ~18-19M

2018: ~16M

2019: ~10M

By Jan 2020 ~100M lifetime sales

Of course depends when PS5 comes out, maybe it's a 7 year gen and it comes in 2020.

Barozi said:
X1 sales could peak due to Scorpio. At the same time I don't see a single reason why PS4 is supposed to sell more than last year or the year before that. Pro, PSVR and Slim came out last year and they didn't do much.

I dunno why Xbox could peak due to Scorpio if Pro didn't do much, who says Scorpio will do much?

Certainly not me. It doesn't need to do much to make the X1 peak.



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Barozi said:

Oh wow you certainly did not convince me even though you tried hard by listing Knack 2 and a few others that will move an insignificant amount of hardware.

Good deals, low price etc.. I hear that every year. 2017 isn't special in that regard.

The Division, Battlefield 1, FFXV, Overwatch etc. sold well too. Nothing is set in stone yet. Delays will be obvious.

So like I said. 2017 looks pretty much like 2016 just without PSVR, Slim and Pro launch.

You're welcome to name the "few" others out of the ones I listed that would be insignificant considering I only listed a "few" you're saying the majority of what I listed is "insignificant", it would also be nice if you didn't reply with such an attitude. Not sure why you think it's "trying hard" it's not like I missed anything from 2016 other then the annual MLB game (which I also missed off the 2017 list.) I could "try hard" if you'd like though and add Wipeout Omega Collection, Everybody's Golf, and also put Detroit, Dreams, Spiderman & God of War as potential 2017 releases.

And as to everyone repeating "PSVR, Pro, Slim." as if that'd offer 2016 such an amazing boost. If anything these products will offer more in 2017 then they did when they launched. PSVR suffered from awful stock shortage, Pro suffered some shortages, and 'Slim' is just a replacement for the OG PS4 and offers nothing over the original, it's not something that's going to BOOST sales other then a lower price.

Holidays 2017 will be the first major deals on both Pro and PSVR, though PSVR isn't going to have a large impact, I think a cheaper Pro without shortages will.

There's no denying that the exclusive line-up for 2017 is leagues ahead of 2016, combined with a $200 slim deal for the holidays and a $300-ish deal on a Pro, and what I believe will be a stronger showing for Third Party titles (especially considering PS4 always has a CoD Bundle, & will likely have a RDR Bundle too) I expect the PS4 to have it's best year.

If I had to give a range 16.5-18 Million, so a slight decrease is in the range I think is plausible at this time, but I think it has a greater chance of increasing YoY and that's what I expect.

 



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

Barozi said:
Barkley said:

- First holiday with good deals on Pro.

- Cheapest price yet for PS4 Slim.

 

- Third party hopefully won't underperform this holiday like it did in 2016 (Infinite Warfare, Watch Dogs 2, Titanfall 2 all sold poorly)

Call of Duty bundle that won't be horrifically hated (maybe)

Red Dead Redemption 2

 

- Stronger 1st party lineup.

2016: Ratchet, Uncharted 4, The Last Guardian.

2017: Horizon, Crash Bandicoot, Uncharted: Lost Legacy, Gran Turismo Sport, Gravity Rush 2, Knack 2, Persona 5 + ???

Oh wow you certainly did not convince me even though you tried hard by listing Knack 2 and a few others that will move an insignificant amount of hardware.

Good deals, low price etc.. I hear that every year. 2017 isn't special in that regard.

The Division, Battlefield 1, FFXV, Overwatch etc. sold well too. Nothing is set in stone yet. Delays will be obvious.

So like I said. 2017 looks pretty much like 2016 just without PSVR, Slim and Pro launch.

lol ya of the those games he listed only Red Dead, Horizon & Gran Turismo have system selling potential.

Those other games may sell well but arent going to be system sellers.

He probably would have been better off listing games like Mass Effect, Star Wars Battlefront & Destiny 2.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

lol ya of the those games he listed only Red Dead, Horizon & Gran Turismo have system selling potential.

Those other games may sell well but arent going to be system sellers.

He probably would have been better off listing games like Mass Effect, Star Wars Battlefront & Destiny 2.

The list at the bottom of the post was specifically about 1st Party, and considering two of the games I listed for 2016 are also not MAJOR system sellers that further highlights my point that 2017 is a stronger first party lineup. It doesn't matter if you don't view them as having MASSIVE system selling potential, the point was it's a stronger lineup then last year, which featured only one major selling exclusive.

Crash will outperform Ratchet, Horizon & Gran Turismo combined will outperform Uncharted 4 and the rest of the years lineup combined will easily outperform The Last Guardian.

So my point stands. The exclusive Lineup this year will be Stronger than last year.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)

Barkley said:
zorg1000 said:

lol ya of the those games he listed only Red Dead, Horizon & Gran Turismo have system selling potential.

Those other games may sell well but arent going to be system sellers.

He probably would have been better off listing games like Mass Effect, Star Wars Battlefront & Destiny 2.

The list at the bottom of the post was specifically about 1st Party, and considering two of the games I listed for 2016 are also not MAJOR system sellers that further highlights my point that 2017 is a stronger first party lineup. It doesn't matter if you don't view them as having MASSIVE system selling potential, the point was it's a stronger lineup then last year, which featured only one major selling exclusive.

Crash will outperform Ratchet, Horizon & Gran Turismo combined will outperform Uncharted 4 and the rest of the years lineup combined will easily outperform The Last Guardian.

So my point stands. The exclusive Lineup this year will be Stronger than last year.

Well since this entire thread is about hardware sales than its relevant to discuss the games system selling potential which is very limited in most of the games you listed.

You are also leaving out some somewhat big exclusives of last year like No Man's Sky & Street Fighter V which are bigger than some of those games that you listed for this year.

Will Crash, Gravity Rush, Knack, Persona (already in Japan) outperform Ratchet & Clank, Last Guardian, Street Fighter, No Man's Sky? Maybe but not significantly and none will move much hardware.

of the exclusive titles you listed, Horizon & Gran Turismo will both likely be major hits and potential system sellers.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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And also there`s one thing left I didn`t remember: Jailbreak. If PS4 and X1 gets jailbroken this year sales will be much higher in underdeveloped countries.

And yes, Jailbreak do sells hardware.



I do not think PS4S will drop to 199 for sure but I can see PS4P for 349$. Probably next year with a slimmer PS4P it will be 300$. But sales should be good this year too. I am not sure about Microsoft though and I can't see Scorpio for 400$ based on rumored specs.



 

PS4 still can have another price cut and they didn't released some of theirs big IP's like Gran Turismo and The last of us 2.So no I don't think this is year is the PS4 peak year.



PS4 - over 100 millions let's say 120m
Xbox One - 70m
Wii U - 25m

Vita - 15m if it will not get Final Fantasy Kingdoms Heart and Monster Hunter 20m otherwise
3DS - 80m

small44 said:
PS4 still can have another price cut and they didn't released some of theirs big IP's like Gran Turismo and The last of us 2.So no I don't think this is year is the PS4 peak year.

Gran Turismo can literally sell millions of PS4`s, mainly in Europe.



If the XBO's sales continue to be up YoY in the U.S., through July and flat from August to December, then 2017 should be its peak, though not a very pronounced one. However, based on the Pro's effect on PS4 sales, I don't expect much out of the Scorpio, especially if it launches at $500.

As for the PS4, it's harder to tell. In the U.S. and Europe it was down YoY overall in 2016 (more so in the former than the latter; the respective drops were 11.3% and 2.8%, though most of that drop in the U.S. was from an uncharacteristically bad November for both systems). Now, systems have done a zigzag in their sales before, but it's extremely rare in any of the data and only happened last generations as far as I'm aware of and was restricted to single regions. The 360 was down YoY in Europe in 2009 but rebounded in 2010, the PS3 was down YoY in Japan in 2008 but rebounded in 2009, and the PSP was down YoY. The aforementioned zigzag in Europe for the 360 did cause 360 sales to zigzag globally, but that's because that single-region 14% YoY drop (according to VGC anyway) was not offset by sales increases in the U.S. (which were up by a meager 0.7% YoY in 2009) and Japan (which was up 7.5% YoY but was too small of a market for the 360 to make an impact).

The PS4 being up YoY is going to depend on if the U.S. market responds to a permanent price cut to $250 for the Slim (and possibly a corresponding $50 drop for the Pro) and another big holiday cut to $200 ($300 for the Pro). The current $300 price point may be too much for the Slim. Big software releases could potentially offer another smaller assist. Europe may possibly respond to a similar price cut. As for Japan, the PS4 continues to have noticeable growth since the release of the Slim, but they're a much smaller slice of PS4 sales so it may not have a big impact on any yearly shift.