Nintendo is shipping two million i am willing to bet they will only sell half of that. Here are my reasonings:
Nintendo does better during holidays
The reveal has been a disaster
While the concept of the switch is awesome it has not been taken well by even some fans due to low battery life
Zelda isnt exclusive
Japan continues to be a weak market
Wii u left a bad taste in some peoples mouths
Paid online makes it less desirable for a second console
No backwards compatibility
Price is too high