Soundwave said: nanarchy said: It matters a LOT. It is the difference between 1) 3rd party support equal to other consoles (Wii level sales) 2) slight delays in 3rd party releases (lifetime sub 50m) 3) shoddy cheaply done 3rd party ports where they bother (lifetime sub 30m) 4) no 3rd party support as it just aint worth it (Wii U) Yeah but reality tells a different story. Wii did sell 100 million units. Where was all the magical developer support? They stayed with Sony + MS for the most part. Why? Because 160 million PS3s + 360s is more than 100 million Wiis. The only really "big" games the Wii maybe stole from the PS/XBox were Monster Hunter Tri and DQX (an online only game for Japan).  Sorry but I just don't see much difference from developers if it sells 40 million versus 80 million. The Wii had mediocre third party support even at 100 million and with the PS4 + XB1 at almost 100 million shipped already there's just no way any studio could rationally justify supporting the Switch with a "big" game over those platforms.  As Nintendo fans we've been sold this whole "well you better hope & stress about the system selling great becauze you need good sales for good developer support" ... but the fact is it's largely crap.  The 3DS even has quite frankly somewhat assy third party support, it has 4-5 big Japanese IP sure, but it's real slim pickings after that. And that's at 65 million now. How much does it need to sell to get "good" developer support? 85 million? 100 million?  Developers really can't devote too much resources to the Switch. There's too many PS4/XB1 owners already to ignore on top of the fact that there's PC users also and porting between those three platforms is easy (x86 PC GPU based basically). For portable games most developers, even Japanese ones, are chasing the mobile money train as their first priority these days. There's just no changing these two issues, and as such I don't think it really matters all that much if Switch sells 40-50 million say instead of 80-85 million.  The games you get are largely going to be exactly the same as a gamer. The developers who are willing to buy in to what Nintendo is doing will be there at 30/40/50 million. The ones who aren't would only change their mind if it was an astronomical success like 100-150 million and even then they likely would "wait and see" for about 1-3 years, and then require another 1-2 years to finally release anything. It's not worth stressing over a a Nintendo fan, this whole cat & mouse sales game is largely bullshit. As long as the system does "ok" it's good enough, it doesn't really change much if goes above that.

Wii may have sold 100m, but a massive portion were casuals. The casual market is gone and it aint coming back combined with a rapidly fleeing handheld market, nintendo need to pick up more of the gamers and to do that they need 3rd party support which  turn requires a large enough userbase of gamers to justify the risk and investment.

Barkley said: Soundwave said: Even as a Nintendo fan while my heart says this would be great, my brain tells me it would be terrible.  Nintendo is like that friend you have who's a cool dude, but maaaaaaan are they ever fucking annoying/crazy when they get drunk, and Nintendo can be awful when they are drunk on power. Let's be honest, they're STILL drunk after the Wii.     Perhaps they've managed to condense there drunkeness to just the horrific January presentation and 1-2-Switch though.

At first sight, they seem to be, but let's be honest here. Did you tried the Joy-Con out? What I heard from many people who had their chance of playing those games, they pretty much had their fun and the HD Rumble was pretty accurate and interesting in what it did.

nanarchy said: Soundwave said: Yeah but reality tells a different story. Wii did sell 100 million units. Where was all the magical developer support? They stayed with Sony + MS for the most part. Why? Because 160 million PS3s + 360s is more than 100 million Wiis. The only really "big" games the Wii maybe stole from the PS/XBox were Monster Hunter Tri and DQX (an online only game for Japan).  Sorry but I just don't see much difference from developers if it sells 40 million versus 80 million. The Wii had mediocre third party support even at 100 million and with the PS4 + XB1 at almost 100 million shipped already there's just no way any studio could rationally justify supporting the Switch with a "big" game over those platforms.  As Nintendo fans we've been sold this whole "well you better hope & stress about the system selling great becauze you need good sales for good developer support" ... but the fact is it's largely crap.  The 3DS even has quite frankly somewhat assy third party support, it has 4-5 big Japanese IP sure, but it's real slim pickings after that. And that's at 65 million now. How much does it need to sell to get "good" developer support? 85 million? 100 million?  Developers really can't devote too much resources to the Switch. There's too many PS4/XB1 owners already to ignore on top of the fact that there's PC users also and porting between those three platforms is easy (x86 PC GPU based basically). For portable games most developers, even Japanese ones, are chasing the mobile money train as their first priority these days. There's just no changing these two issues, and as such I don't think it really matters all that much if Switch sells 40-50 million say instead of 80-85 million.  The games you get are largely going to be exactly the same as a gamer. The developers who are willing to buy in to what Nintendo is doing will be there at 30/40/50 million. The ones who aren't would only change their mind if it was an astronomical success like 100-150 million and even then they likely would "wait and see" for about 1-3 years, and then require another 1-2 years to finally release anything. It's not worth stressing over a a Nintendo fan, this whole cat & mouse sales game is largely bullshit. As long as the system does "ok" it's good enough, it doesn't really change much if goes above that.  Wii may have sold 100m, but a massive portion were casuals. The casual market is gone and it aint coming back combined with a rapidly fleeing handheld market, nintendo need to pick up more of the gamers and to do that they need 3rd party support which  turn requires a large enough userbase of gamers to justify the risk and investment.

It will still never happen, ARM + mobile Tegra chip means a developer realistically has to choose between making a game for the Switch primarily versus making one for PS4 + XB1/Scorpio + PC ... and Switch is never going to have more users, certainly not any time soon, even if it sold like the Wii it would take until like 2020 or 2021 to catch where the PS4 alone is today and that's assuming not a single person on the planet ever buys a PS4 after today. 

None of this stuff is realistic. Developers at best may opt to make a version of a game for Switch but that will also be on the PS4/XB1/PC unless Nintendo pays for the development costs, which isn't going to happen much as Nintendo is a business not a charity, and said ports to the PS4/XB1/PC will likely be better versions because of better hardware. 

The 3DS has 65 million and quite frankly for that number of users the third party support is mediocre aside from 3 big Japanese IP really. This is largely because of mobile too I think, too many devs even Japanese ones would rather chase the mobile money market rather than bother with traditional mobile games at 4800-6800 yen a pop. 

Given these realities as a Nintendo fan, really why even worry about all this crap? Just enjoy the Switch. As long as it doesn't flop and sells enough for a Switch 2 or whatever, that's good enough, if the 3DS can't even get great developer support a 65 million, the Switch is likely not going to do much better than that if at all. It's not worth getting upset about or worrying about. 

ps4tw said: vivster said: It only matters if it is your only gaming option. So no, it doesn't matter. ....What? How much the Switch sells is a key indicator in understanding whether Nintendo's business strategy and understanding of the gaming market is correct. With the Wii U, it wasn't. Therefore, if the Switch fails, then you'll see investors dump Nintendo shares which will either kill the company or force it to restructure its management and business strategy.

So how does that matter then if you're not reliant on Nintendo as your only gaming platform?

vivster said: ps4tw said: ....What? How much the Switch sells is a key indicator in understanding whether Nintendo's business strategy and understanding of the gaming market is correct. With the Wii U, it wasn't. Therefore, if the Switch fails, then you'll see investors dump Nintendo shares which will either kill the company or force it to restructure its management and business strategy.  So how does that matter then if you're not reliant on Nintendo as your only gaming platform?

It doesn't matter either way actually. 

The whole "if Nintendo sells great that means lots of developers will make great games for it, so surely you should worry if Switch is your only system!" is equally a load of shit. The Wii and 3DS have mediocre third party support despite selling a lot. 

Why? Becauase there are alternatives that offer developers even more lucrative options (versus Wii there was PS3 + 360 and versus 3DS there's iOS/Android) and against Switch there will always be the PS4-XB1-PC AND mobile on the other end to siphon off developer support.

So it doesn't even matter if Switch is the only system you have. It's not worth losing sleep over how well it sells so long as it doesn't totally flop. You're going to get basically the same types of games either way, doesn't matter if it sells 40 million or 80 million. The developers who really want to make games for the system will be there at 40 million, anything higher is gravy. No point in stressing over it. 

Between Wii U and 3DS Nintendo are selling software to a combined user base of around 80 million. If Switch was to sell less than that how would you perceive that??

zippy said: Between Wii U and 3DS Nintendo are selling software to a combined user base of around 80 million. If Switch was to sell less than that how would you perceive that??

What does it matter if Nintendo still makes money? I mean they're making good money right now off a 3DS that's shipping like 8 million a year, a dead Wii U, and just mobile. 

So even in a "bad case scenario" of say 40 million Switches ... they'd probably still make a lot of money as long as they don't sell at a loss, sell plenty of software, and will have other revenue sources like mobile and movies and theme parks to buoy them. 

I mean yeah obviously higher sales can be better, I'm just saying as an actual Nintendo gamer what's the real benefit here? The Wii and 3DS had solid to great hardware sales and still have relatively shit for developer support in both cases, so the whole idea that user base automatically equals great developer isn't true. So we basically got nothing there. 

So the second thing then I guess is we should feel bad because Nintendo isn't making money ... except Nintendo has shown themselves to be able to make lots of money even with less successful hardware. And really nothing to worry about there either. Nintendo is a small company relative to the money they pull in, as such unless they take stupid risks like big money losses on hardware, they'll generally always make a profit even with a lower userbase. 

Soundwave said: vivster said: So how does that matter then if you're not reliant on Nintendo as your only gaming platform? It doesn't matter either way actually.  The whole "if Nintendo sells great that means lots of developers will make great games for it, so surely you should worry if Switch is your only system!" is equally a load of shit. The Wii and 3DS have mediocre third party support despite selling a lot.  Why? Becauase there are alternatives that offer developers even more lucrative options (versus Wii there was PS3 + 360 and versus 3DS there's iOS/Android) and against Switch there will always be the PS4-XB1-PC AND mobile on the other end to siphon off developer support. So it doesn't even matter if Switch is the only system you have. It's not worth losing sleep over how well it sells so long as it doesn't totally flop. You're going to get basically the same types of games either way, doesn't matter if it sells 40 million or 80 million. The developers who really want to make games for the system will be there at 40 million, anything higher is gravy. No point in stressing over it.

Game developing costs money. Developing exlusive titles can be really risky nowadays. Hence, why a lot of games go multiplatform. The Wii and 3DS are systems which are not just having weak specs, but also offer a different playstyle than any other console. Thus making developing certain games a bit problematic. PC/Xbox360/PS3 were mostly the leading platforms in developing. The engines being used, made them impossible to port the games to Nintendo consoles. What Nintendo really should do is release a device which is on par with their competition and people will most likely move to Nintendo. Why? Because Nintendo will still be the only company who will release Nintendo games on a Nintendo platform. Ignoring mobile just for the sake of the argument. Nintendo can afford it to do so. Other developers will distance themself from developing exlusive games. It only gets more expensive. Thus, Sony and Microsoft (Xbox and PC) will offer the same game libraries. It most of the time is pretty identical by today.

If you don't like Nintendo games, well, then don't bother what Nintendo is doing

 

Soundwave said: zippy said: Between Wii U and 3DS Nintendo are selling software to a combined user base of around 80 million. If Switch was to sell less than that how would you perceive that?? What does it matter if Nintendo still makes money? I mean they're making good money right now off a 3DS that's shipping like 8 million a year, a dead Wii U, and just mobile.  So even in a "bad case scenario" of say 40 million Switches ... they'd probably still make a lot of money as long as they don't sell at a loss, sell plenty of software, and will have other revenue sources like mobile and movies and theme parks to buoy them.  I mean yeah obviously higher sales can be better, I'm just saying as an actual Nintendo gamer what's the real benefit here? The Wii and 3DS had solid to great hardware sales and still have relatively shit for developer support in both cases, so the whole idea that user base automatically equals great developer isn't true.  So the second thing then I guess is we should feel bad because Nintendo isn't making money ... except Nintendo has shown themselves to be able to make lots of money even with less successful hardware.

 

Oh I fully agree, I was just wondering how people would perceive it if Switch was to sell considerably less than Wii U/3DS combo. Nintendo have shown us during an underperforming gen that they can still generate a profit, but the gaming press will find a way to put a negative spin on things if Switch were to sell less but still make great profits. Its obviously crossed Nintendo's mind if there are mutterings of a possible 3DS successor.

zippy said: Soundwave said: What does it matter if Nintendo still makes money? I mean they're making good money right now off a 3DS that's shipping like 8 million a year, a dead Wii U, and just mobile.  So even in a "bad case scenario" of say 40 million Switches ... they'd probably still make a lot of money as long as they don't sell at a loss, sell plenty of software, and will have other revenue sources like mobile and movies and theme parks to buoy them.  I mean yeah obviously higher sales can be better, I'm just saying as an actual Nintendo gamer what's the real benefit here? The Wii and 3DS had solid to great hardware sales and still have relatively shit for developer support in both cases, so the whole idea that user base automatically equals great developer isn't true.  So the second thing then I guess is we should feel bad because Nintendo isn't making money ... except Nintendo has shown themselves to be able to make lots of money even with less successful hardware.    Oh I fully agree, I was just wondering how people would perceive it if Switch was to sell considerably less than Wii U/3DS combo. Nintendo have shown us during an underperforming gen that they can still generate a profit, but the gaming press will find a way to put a negative spin on things if Switch were to sell less but still make great profits. Its obviously crossed Nintendo's mind if there are mutterings of a possible 3DS successor.

They definitely sold 100 millions of WII's to the customer. But most of the customers just bought it for WII Sports. They never bought any other software for it. It was something different for them and tried it out and that's it. Expecting those customers moving over to the WII U was a mistake.