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How many units does Xbox One need to sell to be considered a success?

Forums - Microsoft Discussion - How many units does Xbox One need to sell to be considered a success?

Answer, why dontcha?

30 million 38 7.84%
 
40 million 63 12.99%
 
50 million 185 38.14%
 
60 million 86 17.73%
 
70 million 29 5.98%
 
80 million 50 10.31%
 
PS2 sales + 1 34 7.01%
 
Total:485
Mr Puggsly said:
Normchacho said:
I mean...historically speaking it's sales will eclipse those of consoles that were considered successful.

But there's no doubt it's a failure overall.

They had to have expected it to outsell the 360, and probably by a comfortable margin.

It's not going to sell nearly as well as the 360, it's not going generate anywhere near the revenue they wanted. Lower than expected hardware sales, software sales and Gold subscriptions. Really early price cuts and deals, the nonexistent roi from Kinect 2.0 not to mention the enormous amount of money in advertising and added features (bc, 4k Blu Ray). Financially it's a huge failure for them, it didn't give them the control over their ecosystem that they wanted and it hurt their image in the industry.

That doesn't mean it's a bad system, but it's absolutely a failure.

Lowered expectations isn't an overall failure. I'm sure they would make changes if they could do it all over again, but they still found a fairly comfortable spot. I think Scorpio is proof of that.

You're right about price cuts, but they also designed X1 to not be a huge financial loser with modest specs. One reason they were able to cut the price drastically was the removal of Kinect.

You're trying to make BC sound like a desperation move, but in reality its something they did because they could, it was desired, and it people still buy 360 games. X1 BC doesn't just make X1 more desireable, it moves software. If Sony could figure out BC on PS4 I genuinely believe they would also offer it. But you know PS4 did get? PS2 emulation.

4K Blu Ray is not an expensive feature to add. But you're pretending it's because the competitor didn't do it.

Oh, I agree it hurt their image. But so did charging for online play, so did killing OG Xbox early, so did RRoD, etc. Xbox's competitors have also done things to hurt their image. But there is potential for recovery after screw ups, X1's image objectively improved since launch.

Bold: The problem I have with that is then you can say nothings a failure. I'm sure sales expectations were dropped dramitically for the Wii U after they say how it's sales dropped off after launch, but it still was a failure due to an inability to meet initial expectations. That's a much more dire scenario of course, but the principle stands.

I'm honestly not sure what you mean by "Its something they did because they could". It's a value added feature, but it costs them money to implement and it's not really something that's going to drive software sales in any significant way. If you have 360 games you don't need to buy software, and they keep giving out 360 games in bundles or they get remastered for the Xbox One anyways. They did it to give themselves good press and to drive Xbox One sales. The PS2 emulation on PS4 is a bad comparison because you have to buy those games. Trust me, as a consumer I'd rather they just let me put in my PS2 games (not that I actually still play PS2 games) but Sony doesn't need to, so they didn't.

I'm not pretending 4K Blu Ray is anything. If 4K Blu Ray is $10 more to implement per system than normal Blu Ray then that's millions of dollars in lost revenue every year to support what is really a niche format. Once again, it's a value added feature. It makes them look good, and they can use it in advertising to try and sell more Xbox Ones, but they wouldn't have needed it if the Xbox One were selling better.

I'll reiterate.

Between lower per-unit revenue, lower software sales, less Gold subscribers, and weaker than expected sales. The Xbox One is going to have an roi that's likely a fraction of Microsofts origional expectations. That's a failure.



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pokoko said:
Relative to whom? Xbox fans? Forum users? Or Microsoft? Because those answers could be very different.

As it stands, I doubt Microsoft brass is very happy with the Xbox situation. Keep in mind that just being slightly above water isn't enough for a company that brings in billions from other products.

Wouldn't the fact that they have the fundings to go with Scorpio, whether next-gen or a revision of the Xbox One, a sign that Microsoft isn't all that unhappy with the Xbox division either?



Conina said:

The Xbox One will be considered as a success when Microsoft gets proud enough to give us official numbers.

As long as they hide the hardware numbers, they aren't obviously not that confident about the success.

This. Hell, we may have them overtracked here, given their performance outside a handful of countries.  Personally, I doubt MS is very happy with the XBO sales considering more than half are probably tied to the many fire sales they have had to have throughout the gen. That can't be good for profitability.



StuOhQ said:
pray4mojo said:
However many is needed for them to profit.

I'm not sure the Xbox division has ever made money in its own right. If we go by that on its own standard, the GCN won the sixth gen. Nintendo made a hefty profit on each 'Cube sold, while Sony and Microsoft took large losses in an attempt to sweep the market. 

Any info to back that up? Other then general revenue numbers that include the late GBC years, all of GBA, and the first 2 DS years? Considering Nintendo was forced into price cuts very quickly, due to poor sales and cuts by Sony/MS, I highly doubt they were even given the chance to make much, if any profit, off of the GC HW.



Wright said:
pokoko said:
Relative to whom? Xbox fans? Forum users? Or Microsoft? Because those answers could be very different.

As it stands, I doubt Microsoft brass is very happy with the Xbox situation. Keep in mind that just being slightly above water isn't enough for a company that brings in billions from other products.

Wouldn't the fact that they have the fundings to go with Scorpio, whether next-gen or a revision of the Xbox One, a sign that Microsoft isn't all that unhappy with the Xbox division either?

The Scorpio has been in development for at least a couple of years, so it probably started before it became clear the XBO didn't have a shot at truly competing with the PS4, save for a couple of regions. But, MS has obviously cut spending on the Xbox division, a fact no sane person can deny. I'm guessing instead of funding 3rd party exclusives and exclusive marketing deals, Spencer has decided to put all his eggs in one basket, Scorpio. It's why they announced it so early and why they didn't stop talking about/promoting it, even at the expense of XBO sales.  If it fails, you can bet MS is going to greatly consider just pulling out. 



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Wright said:
pokoko said:
Relative to whom? Xbox fans? Forum users? Or Microsoft? Because those answers could be very different.

As it stands, I doubt Microsoft brass is very happy with the Xbox situation. Keep in mind that just being slightly above water isn't enough for a company that brings in billions from other products.

Wouldn't the fact that they have the fundings to go with Scorpio, whether next-gen or a revision of the Xbox One, a sign that Microsoft isn't all that unhappy with the Xbox division either?

Being unhappy with where Xbox is at presently doesn't necessarily translate to pulling out of console gaming.  I'm sure they hope to turn things around with Scorpio, which has probably been part of the plan for a long time, perhaps even from the start.  Beyond that, Xbox is more important than just gaming, as Microsoft is probably looking toward a future where they can sell the service without a box.  In that sense, Xbox One itself is less important than market penetration and all the multi-media services bundled with Live.

Xbox is kind of like Microsoft Edge/Explorer.  They don't care all that much about the package, they care about it being a trojan horse for their services.



pokoko said:

Xbox is kind of like Microsoft Edge/Explorer.  They don't care all that much about the package, they care about it being a trojan horse for their services.

I'm sure they care a little about package but Microsoft has never really been the "cool" kid on the block ever.  Xbox is about the only "cool factor" that they have.  Everything else they put out is bland and boring usually.   Perhaps they might have a good product but then they suck at marketing.  I'm sure the Zune was cool if you had one but then that just fell off the map.  No one gives a shit about their phones and most gamers stick with Windows only because it is compatible with most games while Linux / Steam OS only support a few games on Steam still.  No one gives a shit about Windows Store.  They seem to just throw a bunch of shit at the wall and see what sticks which isn't much.  Basically if they lose Xbox then they lose any cool/hip factor that they have left.



Considering the steep, steep discounts it is always offering, it needs to sell a lot more than it already is. Unfortunately, with few exclusives, fewer games and worse performance than the competition, it is a system with very little appeal. So, i really don't know.



Hi

Normchacho said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Lowered expectations isn't an overall failure. I'm sure they would make changes if they could do it all over again, but they still found a fairly comfortable spot. I think Scorpio is proof of that.

You're right about price cuts, but they also designed X1 to not be a huge financial loser with modest specs. One reason they were able to cut the price drastically was the removal of Kinect.

You're trying to make BC sound like a desperation move, but in reality its something they did because they could, it was desired, and it people still buy 360 games. X1 BC doesn't just make X1 more desireable, it moves software. If Sony could figure out BC on PS4 I genuinely believe they would also offer it. But you know PS4 did get? PS2 emulation.

4K Blu Ray is not an expensive feature to add. But you're pretending it's because the competitor didn't do it.

Oh, I agree it hurt their image. But so did charging for online play, so did killing OG Xbox early, so did RRoD, etc. Xbox's competitors have also done things to hurt their image. But there is potential for recovery after screw ups, X1's image objectively improved since launch.

Bold: The problem I have with that is then you can say nothings a failure. I'm sure sales expectations were dropped dramitically for the Wii U after they say how it's sales dropped off after launch, but it still was a failure due to an inability to meet initial expectations. That's a much more dire scenario of course, but the principle stands.

I'm honestly not sure what you mean by "Its something they did because they could". It's a value added feature, but it costs them money to implement and it's not really something that's going to drive software sales in any significant way. If you have 360 games you don't need to buy software, and they keep giving out 360 games in bundles or they get remastered for the Xbox One anyways. They did it to give themselves good press and to drive Xbox One sales. The PS2 emulation on PS4 is a bad comparison because you have to buy those games. Trust me, as a consumer I'd rather they just let me put in my PS2 games (not that I actually still play PS2 games) but Sony doesn't need to, so they didn't.

I'm not pretending 4K Blu Ray is anything. If 4K Blu Ray is $10 more to implement per system than normal Blu Ray then that's millions of dollars in lost revenue every year to support what is really a niche format. Once again, it's a value added feature. It makes them look good, and they can use it in advertising to try and sell more Xbox Ones, but they wouldn't have needed it if the Xbox One were selling better.

I'll reiterate.

Between lower per-unit revenue, lower software sales, less Gold subscribers, and weaker than expected sales. The Xbox One is going to have an roi that's likely a fraction of Microsofts origional expectations. That's a failure.

Not meeting expectations isn't an, "failure overall." It failed to meet expectations, agreed.

Adding any feature costs money, making games costs money. X1 BC is a feature that brings in revenue because X1 BC = More 360 software sales.

Again, 4K Bluray is not an expensive addition to the console. Adding up the cost between every X1S and Scorpio sold is irrelevant. Per device, its not an expensive feature. I agree its niche, but it objectively adds great value considering 4K players are expensive.

I reiterate, lowered expectations isn't, "failure overall."



Recently Completed
Crackdown 3
for X1S/X1X (4/5) - Infinity Blade III - for iPad 4 (3/5) - Infinity Blade II - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Infinity Blade - for iPad 4 (4/5) - Wolfenstein: The Old Blood for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Origins for X1 (3/5) - Uncharted: Lost Legacy for PS4 (4/5) - EA UFC 3 for X1 (4/5) - Doom for X1 (4/5) - Titanfall 2 for X1 (4/5) - Super Mario 3D World for Wii U (4/5) - South Park: The Stick of Truth for X1 BC (4/5) - Call of Duty: WWII for X1 (4/5) -Wolfenstein II for X1 - (4/5) - Dead or Alive: Dimensions for 3DS (4/5) - Marvel vs Capcom: Infinite for X1 (3/5) - Halo Wars 2 for X1/PC (4/5) - Halo Wars: DE for X1 (4/5) - Tekken 7 for X1 (4/5) - Injustice 2 for X1 (4/5) - Yakuza 5 for PS3 (3/5) - Battlefield 1 (Campaign) for X1 (3/5) - Assassin's Creed: Syndicate for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare for X1 (4/5) - Call of Duty: MW Remastered for X1 (4/5) - Donkey Kong Country Returns for 3DS (4/5) - Forza Horizon 3 for X1 (5/5)

20 million. Job a good 'un.