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Forums - Gaming Discussion - PS5 release date predicted...

Intrinsic on 31 January 2017
mutantsushi said:

Tech solely dictates release date, yet Scorpio will launch on same process as Pro a year later?  

Yes, also consider this, chances are when MS announced the scorpio, it didn't exist anywhere other than on a sheet of paper. Thy did that in reaction to the rumors that sony was working on a PS4k (or knowledge there of). They may also have been waiting for certain other aspects of the tech to become available. Like back in 2016 when the scorpio was announced, they probably thought it would be possible to pair it when a Zen APU, even sony probably considered that. Lastly, look at the PS4pro and look at the scorpio, from an engineering standpoint, the transition from a PS4 to PS4pro is significantly more straightforward (just switching the GPU) than going from an XB1 to scorpio (dropping ESram, dropping DDR3 ram and adopting GDDR5...etc). Lots of reasons why the scorpio is releasing a year later. But simply put, they just weren't ready.

None of this is based on achieving "totally different class of power", any more so than Scorpio,
MS used this exact strategy with Scorpio, and as I indicated they do that with higher $ as well.
Because the extra year doesn't help with relative cost (vs Sony), although ABSOLUTE cost drops.
It is not just about "beating Sony", but making the most out of their existing platform base.
Xbone was selling half as well as PS4, so a year delay made sense to make most of platform.
Given Scorpio launched a year later than Pro, keeping the year delay is just the same gen length,
and trying to launch at same time would mean a shorter gen length on weaker selling platform.
Each platform has it's fans, so exact power parity at all times is just not be-all-end-all for either one.

I don't know what you are talking about here..... All I am saying, is that there aren't and will never be enough gains to justify making newer consoles than the PS4pro/scorpio on 14nm based hardware. As far as 14nm goes, the best we can get is the scorpio/PS4pro. They are both based on the same tech but configured differently. Be it clocks, number of compute units used, amount of ram and clock of ram...etc. But at their core they are the same. 

The next hardware push will be when there is something that will show a performance leap from what we have now.... and thats 7nm based chips. Sony and MS can do whatever they want to do with taht tech, but their next consoles will be based on it. And I am not saying they will come out the same time, one could come out a year before the other. What I am saying though, is that whenever that 7nm tech becomes available, then we should all know that the new consoles from sony and MS are right around the corner. And as of right now, we KNOW that tech isn't coming to market in 2018. 2019at best, even though AMD explicitly said they should be expected in 2020.

I do agree the next gen will demonstrate the "decreasing returns" on perceived benefits vs numeric performance increases.
I would guess VR would be area where those performance increases would have highest impact on perceived benefits.

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mutantsushi on 31 January 2017
Intrinsic said:

All I am saying, is that there aren't and will never be enough gains to justify making newer consoles than the PS4pro/scorpio on 14nm based hardware.  The next hardware push will be when there is something that will show a performance leap from what we have now.... and thats 7nm based chips. And I am not saying they will come out the same time, one could come out a year before the other. 

Sure, this has been my base assumption, 2019 - 2020 7nm push... So sorry we miscommunicated,
I really wasn't following nuances of your debate w/ other poster re: idea of future 14nm gen just before 7nm launch (obviously silly).
I just read "MS will have to follow suit... no sense not releasing at the same time. Cause even if they waited a year..."  on it's own,
not understanding your topic was "new 14nm gen on precipice of 7nm" more so than "simultaneous vs 1 year delay" as such.



ShadowSoldier on 31 January 2017

Nah man. This gen is just getting started and with the incremental upgrades a la PS4 Pro and Scorpio, I wouldn't be surprised to see this Gen hit 2021 before we see the PS5. At this point we've really hit the ceiling when it comes to graphics. We need a system where 1080p 60FPS are the standard for all games. That's the only time I want a PS5



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Pemalite on 31 January 2017
Intrinsic said:

As for Navi, AMD and Global foundries announced last year that they expect to begin "risk" production in 2018. But also said that they expect to to have Zen+, Vega 20 and Navi chips on helves by 2020. That descripency from 2018-2020 is because risk production is just glorified speak for extremely low yeild and expensive fabrication. Until they iron out all the fabrication kinks.

Sounds like you have paid attention to one of my discussions. Haha



mutantsushi said:

I think Holiday 2019 is very plausible, 7nm Zen+/Navi will have been optimizing yield for more than year by then.
They can still in parallel sell low price point Slimmed Pro with x-gen compatability ala Scorpio/Bone or PS4/3,
so a higher than optimal price needn't overly tank unit sales, hardcore early adopters will be ready for new gen.
I don't see later than Holiday 2020.

Likewise interesting to see what MS will do, will they match PS5 intro date or wait a year+ and target higher $/spec?


That's *if* 7nm isn't delayed. Global Foundries has a terrible track record in delaying new processes.

With that said, if Global Foundries pulls it off, they might have an advantage over Samsung and TSMC and that translates well for us.

I am predicting a similar perfomance delta between the Xbox One and Scorpio that we will see with Scorpio and Microsoft's next console, might be the smallest generational jump yet... And considering that there is diminishing returns of performance to graphics quality... Well.

Or... We could recognize the fact that the Playstation 4 Pro and Scorpio kinda' makes this console generation unique... And may even prolong it.

Intrinsic said:

MS won't really have a choice. All this realease stuff really all boils down to availability of tech.

Exactly. If the tech doesn't exist or isn't cheap enough, then the tech can't be used.

mutantsushi said:

Tech solely dictates release date, yet Scorpio will launch on same process as Pro a year later?  

There is more to a process than just the "nm" it's advertised at.

For example Samsung's 14nm process has 4 generations... The jump from 1st generation to 2nd generation brought a 15% reduction in power consumption and a 15% increase in switching speed... That adds up after a few generations of similar improvements at the same fabrication process.

Plus "14nm" is just advertising, Samsung 14nm Finfet for instance uses a 20nm BEOL... And they still require double patterning.



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Zappykins on 31 January 2017
invetedlotus123 said:
If Sony stops holding PS4 Pro down and allows developers to a) make exclusive games for it and b) charge for upgrades of previously released games this gen could last until 2020. If not, Sony is boycotting PS4 Pro potential too much, a new gen is going to be needed sooner than most think.

And maybe spend the exta $13 and include a 4K blu ray player in the PS4 Pro +, or whatever they call it. 



 

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EricHiggin on 31 January 2017
Intrinsic said:

No.   PS4pro is using an underclocked polaris (36 compute units) GPU. And those only come in 14nm. The CPU could be built on a 16/14nm process but its definately not still 28nm. And yes, the CPU is still jag but the smaller fab process allows them overclock it while still mainting whatever heat margins they have.     One of the downsides with the Jag CPU is that its never really been higher clocks friendly. Which is why they probably couldn't get it much higher than where its at now.     While Ryzen is supposed to be a 14nm chip, Vega 20/Navi is designed to be 7nm.      What you see in the PS4pro box, is the best they could do using the currently available 14nm tech applied to both the jaguar CPU and the polaris GPU. Yes, they could definately clock all that higher, but that would require an even bigger case and bigger cooling solution. And of course cost more.      And it makes no sense shooting for 10TF.... reason being that polaris and vega will peak at 5-8TF on a 14nm process. So unless they go the extreme route of using a dedicated GPU and CPu (which is really expensive) there is no way they can hit 10TF in an APU chip form factor.      Lastly, that 2-3yrs after pro you are talking about? Thats right around 2020. Ryzen+/Vega20/Navi which are all 7nm chipsets should be on the market around 2019. Cerny himself said it, a new console isn't defined by just a jump in GPU power but by the addition of a new CPU and signiicntly more RAM. All of which will be available around 2020 and that can be made to fit into a $400 box. Sony ending up with a 14-16TF GPU console and a significantly beefier CPU with next gen memroy and storage solutions would end up having nothing to do with what they want or not want. Its just gonna be down to where the market is at.    Look at it this way, If sony and MS were to make a 10-12 TF console in 2020, it would be the equivalent of them going out of their way to make underpowered hardware. Or unless of course they wanted to come in at a $250 price point.

I remember reading these articles about the Pro details with Cerny.

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2016-inside-playstation-4-pro-how-sony-made-a-4k-games-machine

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digitalfoundry-2016-4k-gaming-on-ps4-pro-tech-analysis

"First, we doubled the GPU size by essentially placing it next to a mirrored version of itself, sort of like the wings of a butterfly. That gives us an extremely clean way to support the existing 700 titles," Cerny explains, detailing how the Pro switches into its 'base' compatibility mode. "We just turn off half the GPU and run it at something quite close to the original GPU."

It goes on to talk about Polaris energy efficiency improvments added to the GPU, but they stay away from saying its Pitcairn or Polaris because I guess truthfully its just a hybrid between them. Semi-custom.

"When we design hardware, we start with the goals we want to achieve," says Cerny. "Power in and of itself is not a goal. The question is, what that power makes possible."

This is why I don't see PS5 being that much of a leap over Pro. When they say things like "whats possible" it sounds like they are more worried about gameplay and VR. Not like power doesn't help, because it does, but such a leap for PS5 isn't exactly necessary, Just like how Pro's leap over PS4 wasn't all that large in comparison to previous gens. Mid gen console seems to imply mid power between PS4 and PS5.

With Cerny's point about CPU and RAM being most important for a new console gen, and also more GPU power, I dont see why a 14nm Ryzen + Vega/Navi wouldn't be possible. Yes the GPU's are designed for 7nm, but many archs are shrunk, so why couldn't they enlarge them to 14nm for APU's?  This is of course based on what if 7nm is delayed like all nodes are and PS really needs to get PS5 out to gamers.

There's a lot of rumours out there talking about 12Tflop Vega, so why couldn't PS5 hit 8-10 Tflops with a more advanced Vega/ Navi on 14nm? Add a Ryzen CPU to that and you would have a worthwhile upgrade over Pro. In a bigger box sure, but PS4 was unbelievably tiny when it launched and truthfully should have been larger so the fan didn't have to run full tilt and be so loud. Something they learned and applied to Pro as well.



jonathanalis on 31 January 2017

Nah
-First, scorpio will do worst than ps4 pro, that is already not going that well compared to slim version.
-Then, Sony will make a slim PS4 pro with newer tech and way cheaper price in 2 years from now. Probably at almost same price as old ps4 slim. PS4 pro will be the standart.
-Then, some years later, there will be a switch like hybrid ps4. Following the relative success of switch. running all ps4 games.
-And will take long until abandoning ps4 brand. 4 to 12 teraflops is not a console gerational leap. People would feel like ps5 is just a new ps4 pro pro. And even 20 teraflops, still, seems that power increase is no game changer anymore.
-But even it is not, theyll insist. when 32 Gb stacked memory become mainstream and cheap, also SSD, and 7nm get spread and cheap, maybe they would make a ps5. They have to show a great improvment from ps4 pro to justify a new generation.

But a big question: they will keep disks? or going to cartridges? full digital? BC? scalable for allowing a portable version on a tiny screen?



Pemalite on 01 February 2017
EricHiggin said:

It goes on to talk about Polaris energy efficiency improvments added to the GPU, but they stay away from saying its Pitcairn or Polaris because I guess truthfully its just a hybrid between them. Semi-custom.

Correct. It is Semi-custom. Even the base Playstation 4 deviates from Pitcairn (Graphics Core Next 1.0) in a few areas.
They took that base PS4 design and improved on a few areas, whilst doubling the functional units.

Graphics Core Next is surprisingly modular, if you only wanted to improve a single aspect, you can and leave the rest of the chip the same, this is why Polaris is pretty much ISA compatible with Graphics Core Next 1.2.


EricHiggin said:

This is why I don't see PS5 being that much of a leap over Pro. When they say things like "whats possible" it sounds like they are more worried about gameplay and VR.

Depends. The Playstation 5 should deviate from Graphics Core Next and use AMD's Next-Gen Compute Unit (NCU) or a derivative-of which should flop-for-flop be a substantual jump over Graphics Core Next.

Navi should refine that farther.

First we need Vega to land so we can get a better idea on AMD's efficiency gains with the new Architecture and so we can get a better idea of next-gen capabilities.

EricHiggin said:

Yes the GPU's are designed for 7nm, but many archs are shrunk, so why couldn't they enlarge them to 14nm for APU's?

Cost and power consumption.

When 28nm got delayed, AMD didn't just release Graphics Core Next on the larger 40nm process, rather AMD decided it will customize it's VLIW5 architecture and gave us VLIW4 as the interim solution.

EricHiggin said:

There's a lot of rumours out there talking about 12Tflop Vega, so why couldn't PS5 hit 8-10 Tflops with a more advanced Vega/ Navi on 14nm?


The chip would be so massive and power hungry, that the price would be ridiculous and you would need a Nuclear Reactor to power it, remember you need to include the CPU, chipset and other logic into that chip as well.

Jaguar was already transister efficient, throwing something like Zen+ or a derivative-of would blow the die-size out.




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xl-klaudkil on 01 February 2017

End of 2019 begin of 2020, not sooner not later.
Scorpio and switch is not going to crush the massive lead and sales of the ps4.



 

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KBG29 on 01 February 2017

I don't see any way a true PS5 can be delivered before 2023 - 2024. I can see a PS4 Spec 3 in 2019 - 2020, but the tech is just not there for a typical generational leap. Sony may use the PS5 name in 2019, but what we get will be a total deviation of past generations. If we get PS5 in 2019 - 2020, then we we are just getting iterative products with new names, as opposed to iterations within a generation.

Basically I see no way for us to have a real next gen console until we have 8x to 16x the RAM of PS4, just like we have had 16x every PS generation before. I also can't see a real next gen without SSD as a standard in all consoles.

Going forward I would expect to see PS4 Spec 3 in 2019 - 2020, with a 10 - 12 TFLOP APU, 16GB GDDR5, and a 2TB 5400RPM HDD.

Then in 2023 - 2024 I can see PS5 launching with a 25 - 30 TFLOP APU, 64GB HBM RAM (Minimum), and a 4TB SSD on SATA Express.



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