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Forums - Sales Discussion - Pachter: Wii Fit Will Sell 3-4 Million in the US

greenmedic88 on 02 April 2008

I read that it was about $10 million, but that may have been for the ad campaign (TV/video spots), not the entire marketing campaign to include sponsorships, fast food/Mountain Dew tie ins, promotional items and promotional events.

But somehow I don't see there being a WiiFit McDonald's/Burger King tie in campaign.

That $40 million marketing campaign budget for WiiFit seems a suspect number, and not just because Nintendo has never dumped that much into marketing a single game.



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Astrodust on 02 April 2008

I think Wiifit will sell 4-5 million this year alone. If they have enough. I'm still predicting complete sellout by the holidays and a 30% attach rate lifetime.



 

 

Antwerpen on 02 April 2008

Only 3-4 million? Stupid patcher..



bigjon on 02 April 2008
johntonsoup said:
Why would Nintendo spend $40 million on advertising a new game when they cannot even produce enough consoles to meet demand as it is? I think they should go for an understated ad campaign and save some money in the war chest to fight down the inevitable rash of studies proving that WiiFit does not help you lose weight.

Yes, I realize that Nintendo has been clear that WiiFit is not meant to be a weight loss tool but rather a way of promoting a healthy lifestyle through tracking and fun. However, I think your average media story is going to muddle it and the average person is going to assume that WiiFit makes you fit.

Either way, if I was Reggie, I'd ask Oprah for a head count at one of her shows. Let's say it's about 500 people. That makes 500 Wiis ($125,000), 500 WiiFits (roughly $50,000), and 500 WiiFit t-shirts (roughly $200). Boom, drop $175,200 and you'll have Wiis sold out for about 5 years.

Reggie Knows something that you do not... Wii is going to pass 360 by end of June...



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

HappySqurriel on 02 April 2008
Just_Ben said:
HappySqurriel said:

I could be wrong, but wasn't it pachter who said a couple of months ago that Wii Fit wouldn't sell 10 Million units worldwide?

If it has already sold 1.75 Million in Japan (likely hitting 3 to 4 Million by the end of 2008), it will sell 3 to 4 Million in North America in 2008, and one would assume that it would receive similar sales in Europe how could it not break 10 Million lifetime?

Thats because he gets misquoted. He predicts Wii Fit will not sell 10 Million in the US this year (yes go figure).

 


Well, if I remember correctly, the reason why his 10 Million number was so memorable was because he was listing worldwide lifetime figures and comparing it to Grand Theft Auto 4 (which he had at, something like, 15 Million); the fact that it was different from his typical American Yearly numbers was what was suprising.



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Oyvoyvoyv on 02 April 2008

Wait, Nintendo uses 40M? If that is correct, they must expect it to sell 6ish M at least, in USA only. I mean, If it sells 4M only, that means they spent 10dollars pr game sold, on advertising only. That's a BIG reduce in income.



http://www.vgchartz.com/games/userreviewdisp.php?id=261

That is VGChartz LONGEST review. And it's NOT Cute Kitten DS

stranne on 02 April 2008

^^It's not that easy. They're hoping that a lot of the WiiFit buyers also buy a console to go with the game, more than for other games.

(But of course they expect toi sell more than 3-4M)



TWRoO on 02 April 2008
bigjon said:
johntonsoup said:
Why would Nintendo spend $40 million on advertising a new game when they cannot even produce enough consoles to meet demand as it is? I think they should go for an understated ad campaign and save some money in the war chest to fight down the inevitable rash of studies proving that WiiFit does not help you lose weight.

Yes, I realize that Nintendo has been clear that WiiFit is not meant to be a weight loss tool but rather a way of promoting a healthy lifestyle through tracking and fun. However, I think your average media story is going to muddle it and the average person is going to assume that WiiFit makes you fit.

Either way, if I was Reggie, I'd ask Oprah for a head count at one of her shows. Let's say it's about 500 people. That makes 500 Wiis ($125,000), 500 WiiFits (roughly $50,000), and 500 WiiFit t-shirts (roughly $200). Boom, drop $175,200 and you'll have Wiis sold out for about 5 years.

Reggie Knows something that you do not... Wii is going to pass 360 by end of June...


 That's very true.

If the $40million figure is true, then I think it is pretty obvious that the supply will be considerably larger by then, after all they took down Wii adverts over Christmas because they knew they couldn't satisfy demand, so they know what they are doing regarding the best time to advertise.

I think now it is April (new fiscal year) we can expect the supply to be increased considerably.



Mummelmann on 02 April 2008

Breaking news! : Pachter's on crack... He is just back and forth like a boomerang this one, can he stand still for a sec, I'm getting dizzy.



jlauro on 02 April 2008
Supposed said:
jlauro said:
^--- what he said, although might be closer to 3x instead of just 2x...

Are you expecting everyone to buy it twice?

  

No.  Only expect 1 to be bought for every two wiis.


3x of 4mil is only 12mil.  America is already at 10mil wiis.  It will be over double that a year from now.

 

I expect the wii to start selling 500,000 every week starting in May.