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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Will the Nintendo Switch make it to 20 million?

bonzobanana on 18 January 2017

Looking at past threads like this one for the wii u;

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=147642&page=1

Turkish was the easy winner with less than 20 million and still someway off the final figures which surely can't exceed 15 million. So was actually pretty optimistic compared to the final figures. The average prediction figure seems to have been around 40 million with some figures as high as 150 million.

Of course making accurate predictions is near enough impossible because we don't know what decisions Nintendo will make. Price drops, new sku's etc.

Some of the problems the Switch has;

1. Very low performance level for price as a home console (cannot be solved)
2. Very limited range of software (high unlikely to ever be competitive)
3. Very low performance level of software for home use (cannot be solved)
4. Very high pricing of accessories (can be solved)
5. Very high pricing of retail games (can be solved)
6. Short battery life in portable mode (can be solved with later sku)
7. Online subscription cost with few online games (can be solved)
8. No subscription loyalty bonuses of full games compared to competitors (can be solved)
9. High pricing of download games (can be solved)
10. High cost of publishing retail games due to cartridge costs for third parties (realistically can't be solved)
11. Poor controllers for conventional games (solved by additional purchase)
12. Once included controllers are discharged cannot continue gaming until charged (docked) (can be solved by additional purchase)
13. Poor range of upcoming titles (unlikely to be solved)
14. Limited storage (can be solved at additional purchase)
15. Maximum 1080p resolution for home use (cant be solved with this sku)
16. May have limited retail support (can be solved)

The positive
1. Good portable performance
2. Mario IP
3. Zelda IP
4. Nintendo's own software range
5. Merging of portable and home software developers to support one format
6. New controller functionality to add to gameplay experience
7. Possible low cost VR accessory being launched which takes advantage of tablet format of console



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mountaindewslave on 18 January 2017
Airaku said:
I think 20 million by holiday 2018 is very doable. Maybe even within one year of release. Remember this system is launched in more countries in the world than any Nintendo platform before it and is completely 100% region free. So yeah... I don't think selling the thing will be hard as long as Nintendo can keep up with the demand through production which seems to be detailed in their plans.


One thing I think a lot of "Nintendo fans" need to understand is that Iwata strived for a smaller company and he worked hard to keep things more private and controlled. He was a great guy but he ran the company in a very conservative manner. Kimishima seems to want to bring the "Big Red" Nintendo back from the 90's. I think you can expect the company to be bigger with much more marketing in the future. More corporate deals. Even Reggie's tone and approach seems a little more mass appealing. I don't think we'll be seeing small scale production and products held back. I think the idea for that was to make sure all the products made are sold. Keeping demand higher to ensure more units sold.


I don't doubt the potential of sales that this console can have. I'll be a little shocked doesn't at least surpass 40-60 million world wide.

the no longer having region lock is going to make the system extremely attractive in a lot of foreign markets, can't count the number of times I've seen people worldwide complaining about the feature 



Train wreck on 18 January 2017
bonzobanana said:
Looking at past threads like this one for the wii u;

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=147642&page=1

Turkish was the easy winner with less than 20 million and still someway off the final figures which surely can't exceed 15 million. So was actually pretty optimistic compared to the final figures. The average prediction figure seems to have been around 40 million with some figures as high as 150 million.

Of course making accurate predictions is near enough impossible because we don't know what decisions Nintendo will make. Price drops, new sku's etc.

Some of the problems the Switch has;

1. Very low performance level for price as a home console (cannot be solved)
2. Very limited range of software (high unlikely to ever be competitive)
3. Very low performance level of software for home use (cannot be solved)
4. Very high pricing of accessories (can be solved)
5. Very high pricing of retail games (can be solved)
6. Short battery life in portable mode (can be solved with later sku)
7. Online subscription cost with few online games (can be solved)
8. No subscription loyalty bonuses of full games compared to competitors (can be solved)
9. High pricing of download games (can be solved)
10. High cost of publishing retail games due to cartridge costs for third parties (realistically can't be solved)
11. Poor controllers for conventional games (solved by additional purchase)
12. Once included controllers are discharged cannot continue gaming until charged (docked) (can be solved by additional purchase)
13. Poor range of upcoming titles (unlikely to be solved)
14. Limited storage (can be solved at additional purchase)
15. Maximum 1080p resolution for home use (cant be solved with this sku)
16. May have limited retail support (can be solved)

The positive
1. Good portable performance
2. Mario IP
3. Zelda IP
4. Nintendo's own software range
5. Merging of portable and home software developers to support one format
6. New controller functionality to add to gameplay experience
7. Possible low cost VR accessory being launched which takes advantage of tablet format of console

Pokemon IP as well



V-r0cK on 18 January 2017

Without a doubt it can hit 20million easily.



Egelo on 18 January 2017
numberwang said:
A Nintendo handheld will sell plenty, in particular when lowered to 199$ for a starter set.

Yep 3ds will sale plenty more.

hows that help the switch ?



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Nogamez on 18 January 2017

With a price cut in a year or two and assuming all the usual apps like Netflix work on it and IF it gets a 0okemon game then yeah it should sell well over 20million



JRPGfan on 18 January 2017
Geralt said:

Lets see if the switch can do what the wii u could not, and what the gamecube barely did-make it past 20 million units. I think the switch will sell 4-5 million in 2017, 5 million in 2018, 4 million in 2019, 3 million in 2020 and 2 million in the rest of the future. I do not think the switch will pass 20 million units sold. 

I believe ps4 + ps4 pro will sell 150 million units and xbox one + xbox one scorpio will sell 90 million units in contrast. I believe the pro and scorpio are "future proof" and will be on the market for the next 8 years.

O_o

 

PS4 is not going much above 110m.

Xbox One is probably not going above 50m.

Switch will sell 30m+ lifetime even if they keep the bad 299$ price its intire gen.

Switch *can* sell 70-80m+ lifetime if they just drop price 50-100$ within first year, get a exclusive pokemon/monster hunter game for it early.



KrspaceT on 18 January 2017

Depends entirely on the games put on it. Zelda and Mario are a good start: if the momentum can keep up in years 2 and 3 it should be fine.



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

Insidb on 18 January 2017
tak13 said:

For you only 7th gen counts? What about 6th (GBA) and 4th+5th ( GB+GBC)

 

Based on 6th gen comparision, I surmise that what mobile has done to the market is to vanish the irregular and steep growth of 7th gen and maybe stolen some of the core audience ( at least  In the USA ) , not killing it...

Should I have predicted that Ps4 would sell 50-70m because ps3 was down compared to ps2 by 90%?

 

Also, after pokemon go effect, can we be more optimistic about nintendo handheld console market ( I'm specifying it, because essentially Nintendo is the handheld console market... ), please?

You can be, but it's hard to argue that the market hasn't contracted.

 

This worries me greatly: 

http://www.vgchartz.com/tools/hw_yoy.php?reg=Global&start_year=2005&end_year=2016&console=

Now, align that with this:

http://static2.businessinsider.com/image/56fa930752bcd023008b9548-2340-1755/global-smrt-shipments-forecast.png

Finally, factor in this:

http://www.statista.com/graphic/5/236519/global-spending-on-mobile-apps-since-2009.jpg

 

The GB v. GBA comparison doesn't really hold up, due to widely varying lifecycles: 20 years vs. 5 years. The GBA, DS, and 3DS have all had similar lifespans so far, but the DS appears to have ridden the boom years up. Let's not forget that, gen-on-gen, the PSV essentially went the way of the samurai.