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Forums - Sales Discussion - SuperData: 55m PS4s, 26m Xbones & 15m Wii Us sold

Nintendo Switch: the SuperData Take

 

 

 

https://www.superdataresearch.com/nintendo-switch-the-superdata-take/

To many the Switch is Nintendo’s long-awaited answer to recent challenges. Especially the investment community has been highly critical of the performance of Nintendo’s last console, the Wii U, which sold around 15 million units. The device failed to replicate the blockbuster success of the Wii, which sold more than 100 million units. This, in combination with Nintendo’s late entry into the $40B mobile gaming market, has raise the level of criticism among investors and industry observers, even when consumers remained loyal.

One of Nintendo’s strengths is its brand portfolio. The release of Pokémon GO and Super Mario Run (an exclusive with Apple) has allowed the Japanese giant to quickly capitalize on consumer enthusiasm for mobile games. Super Mario Run, released almost a month ago, has been downloaded by an estimated 96 million people worldwide, earning $43M to date. And Pokémon GO (released in the summer of 2016) has so far earned $894M since launch (up to and including December, 2016). The two titles are largely regarded as evidence of Nintendo’s continued relevance and the strength of its brands.

 

The worldwide market for video games is currently valued at $91B, with console sales representing $25B in 2016. Over the past few years, a growing percentage of console sales have moved away from retail-based physical sales to digital channels. The digital console market is on track to generate $7.8B in 2017E, up from $7B in 2016. The Nintendo Switch enters the console market at a time when Sony is dominating with an install base of almost 55 million, and 26 million for Microsoft’s Xbox One.

Switch is part of Nintendo’s response to the broadening of the interactive entertainment category. The prominent featuring of its multi-player game Splatoon in the context of competitive gaming suggests that Nintendo is looking to also capitalize on recently emerged categories like eSports. In 2016 eSports was valued at $892 million, with 135 million regularly watching competitive gaming tournaments. Splatoon has so far sold around 5 million units worldwide (both digital and physical sales).



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Superdata is only good for giving numbers that are within a ballpark, the only problem is that the ballpark is so big that the numbers are obvious.

PS4 - We know that it was at 53.4 million at the end of the year. This suggest that Superdata are already off with their estimations by like half a million at least.

Wii U - It had shipped 13.36 million by the end of september, so their Wii U number is off by like 900k, which is actually astoundingly bad

XBO - Given that we have limited access to XBO numbers, there's nothing glaringly obvious that's wrong with the number, but it's something that any semi-sales savy user could've guessed anyway.

TL;DR Superdata isn't accurate enough for these numbers to mean anything at all.



Wait, the One has sold 26 million as of today? How overtracked is it here and how badly did it actually do if these numbers are correct?

Edit; just spotted the post above mine, these are apparently not trustworthy numbers.



Bandorr said:
" and there was quite a bit of buzz around Street Fighter V"
Did people actually think SF5 was coming to the switch?

Bringing Ultra Street Fighter II was actually really clever from Capcom's part. SFV can't come due to Sony, and bringing a version of SFIV would have been considered half-assed. But an improved version of an SNES classic? I'm sure it was a pleasent surprise for a lot of people.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Bandorr said:
" and there was quite a bit of buzz around Street Fighter V"
Did people actually think SF5 was coming to the switch?

stupid people. 



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Darwinianevolution said:
Bandorr said:
" and there was quite a bit of buzz around Street Fighter V"
Did people actually think SF5 was coming to the switch?

Bringing Ultra Street Fighter II was actually really clever from Capcom's part. SFV can't come due to Sony, and bringing a version of SFIV would have been considered half-assed. But an improved version of an SNES classic? I'm sure it was a pleasent surprise for a lot of people.

for what they are going ot charge they might as well have brought 4



Teeqoz said:
Superdata is only good for giving numbers that are within a ballpark, the only problem is that the ballpark is so big that the numbers are obvious.

PS4 - We know that it was at 53.4 million at the end of the year. This suggest that Superdata are already off with their estimations by like half a million at least.

Wii U - It had shipped 13.36 million by the end of september, so their Wii U number is off by like 900k, which is actually astoundingly bad

XBO - Given that we have limited access to XBO numbers, there's nothing glaringly obvious that's wrong with the number, but it's something that any semi-sales savy user could've guessed anyway.

TL;DR Superdata isn't accurate enough for these numbers to mean anything at all.

 

Mummelmann said:

Wait, the One has sold 26 million as of today? How overtracked is it here and how badly did it actually do if these numbers are correct?

Edit; just spotted the post above mine, these are apparently not trustworthy numbers.

people can say the same thing about VGchartz



Ruler said:
Teeqoz said:
Superdata is only good for giving numbers that are within a ballpark, the only problem is that the ballpark is so big that the numbers are obvious.

PS4 - We know that it was at 53.4 million at the end of the year. This suggest that Superdata are already off with their estimations by like half a million at least.

Wii U - It had shipped 13.36 million by the end of september, so their Wii U number is off by like 900k, which is actually astoundingly bad

XBO - Given that we have limited access to XBO numbers, there's nothing glaringly obvious that's wrong with the number, but it's something that any semi-sales savy user could've guessed anyway.

TL;DR Superdata isn't accurate enough for these numbers to mean anything at all.

 

Mummelmann said:

Wait, the One has sold 26 million as of today? How overtracked is it here and how badly did it actually do if these numbers are correct?

Edit; just spotted the post above mine, these are apparently not trustworthy numbers.

people can say the same thing about VGchartz

Yeah and people don't take VGC numbers seriously.



Ruler said:
Teeqoz said:
Superdata is only good for giving numbers that are within a ballpark, the only problem is that the ballpark is so big that the numbers are obvious.

PS4 - We know that it was at 53.4 million at the end of the year. This suggest that Superdata are already off with their estimations by like half a million at least.

Wii U - It had shipped 13.36 million by the end of september, so their Wii U number is off by like 900k, which is actually astoundingly bad

XBO - Given that we have limited access to XBO numbers, there's nothing glaringly obvious that's wrong with the number, but it's something that any semi-sales savy user could've guessed anyway.

TL;DR Superdata isn't accurate enough for these numbers to mean anything at all.

 

Mummelmann said:

Wait, the One has sold 26 million as of today? How overtracked is it here and how badly did it actually do if these numbers are correct?

Edit; just spotted the post above mine, these are apparently not trustworthy numbers.

people can say the same thing about VGchartz

Vgchartz numbers are usually good for hindisght view though, when they adjust. As for right now; you can't discredit numbers that aren't there...



XB1 numbers seem a bit low, especially since we where hearing 19-20 million at the end of last year.



Made a bet with LipeJJ and HylianYoshi that the XB1 will reach 30 million before Wii U reaches 15 million. Loser has to get avatar picked by winner for 6 months (or if I lose, either 6 months avatar control for both Lipe and Hylian, or my patrick avatar comes back forever).