Can't wait for the figures to arrive this Thursday. Projecting 29-30M for LTD (between 4.5-6 million for this quarter), although I'm optimistically hoping for shipment data to beat VGC's sell-through of 5.96 million. Regardless, I'm hoping that I'll be adjusting my numbers up rather than down this quarter, fingers crossed!

Its out.

We always come back to this.

That’s a good point.  I don’t think I put much thought into that.

Well said. When the Switch price cuts start sales will blow up again. I know for a fact when the OG Switch drops to $200 we would buy another one to replace a Lite. And when the "Pro" eventually comes out I will be buying that for myself and my OG will be given to one of my sons to replace the other Lite.

As for "years away", I don't think so. Likely 30m this year (if they can keep up with demand), another 25+ the next, and then 15+ the following (7th year) would put it right at the PS2 sales figures (still think this number is inflated). Switch will most likely past the PS2 by March 2024, that's less than 3 years away.

NS has done all of this with out a single price cut it could become the first platform to get 100m with out one.

Well look at this. This thread was a most excellent read. I think I'll read it again, lol. Most epic data here, and the snapshotting of opinions, this thread is why forums are the way.

Long time no see! Good to know some old members are still hanging around.

As a point of comparison, I would like to put my current predictions out for the Switch. Hopefully, this will explain some of my rationale behind why beating the PS2 is quite likely:

As is apparent from this graph, the Switch does not need to sell anywhere close to 30M this year to get past the finish line. In fact, simply meeting Nintendo's conservative expectations would be enough, reaching 110M by the end of this fiscal year. After this, the only obstacle that would remain would be maintaining sales for the next 2 years.

2022 should see only a minor dropoff, as the presence of large 1st party titles such as Pokemon and Splatoon should be enough to maintain interest in the platform, not to mention, demand for the Pro model will continue to be fulfilled going into next year, as the launch of the Pro, if it happens at the end of this fiscal quarter, will probably resemble the shortages that we have seen with the PS5 due to the semiconductor shortages, thereby prolonging the peak sales period for the Switch Pro.

A minor decline in sales in 2023 is also easily achievable, as Nintendo still has an entire arsenal of tricks up its sleeve such as price cuts, doorbuster holiday bundles, and even potentially game discounts, meaning that a figure of 18 million is not a hard task.

Therefore by 2024 by the time the Switch 2 comes out, even with some rather moderate figures provided for the next 2 years and 7.4 years before replacement (shorter than the Xbox 360 mind you), the prospect of the Switch passing the PS2 will have become inevitable, as even with Switch sales dropping off of a cliff following the release of its successor (50% drops per year is as conservative as it gets), the Switch still beats the PS2 by a margin of over 6 million, despite the fact that the numbers I have provided here are rather moderate all things considered. 

This prediction also allows for flexibility. For one, the Switch here can underperform my predictions by over 5 million and still end up on top. In addition, with the trajectory that the switch seems to be heading this year, it seems that 26 million in 2021 may turn out to be a rather conservative projection. If the Switch this year were to say 30 million per se, that's 4 million more units that would not have to be sold later down the line to still meet the target.

I hope it is clear by now that Switch's path to the all-time record is clear as day, and in fact, quite probable if even a moderate/ conservative projection for the next 2 Fiscal years can get us to 165 Million. To conclude, I would kindly urge many who currently hold reservations against the Switch to at the very least read the argument to get an idea of where such bullish predictions can come from. 

Thanks! This thread is...pretty awesome actually. I'm always trying to post more.

I actually kinda abandoned the site during the Wii-U years and I've always regretted that. Mostly I see VGChartz data has become a lot more accepted across the entire community since the old days, but of course there is still the random person behind on their talking points, but overall imho the site is really now much less refuted across the spectrum.

I love a thread like this, because it captures the minds and attitudes in gaming at the time these snapshots were created. I can read something I wrote years ago and completely disagree with it now. It would be very easy to forget the Switch wasn't always predicted to be a huge sales success, and just looking at how passionately we might have expected it to flop, over time, it's a trip.