The best thing about this post is that after 4 years they still have to cut the price, and it doesn't sound like it'll happen soon.....

This thread is golden :D

Needs another update.

Forecasts: 26.5m Switch, 205m software and OP at 560bn.

Eyes are open, and so are the wallets.

As I said elsewhere on the updated numbers.

"Going by current momentum even if the year is not as high as last year we could actually see the NS pass the Wii and PS1, 80m shipment to start the year would mean FY2020 could end at around 84m despite being a more quiet period the quarter ends with the release of MHR and has SM3DW on route to that both should lift momentum but the former will push performance in Japan. The performance of the first two quarters of the next FY under this would see the NS above 90 before the holiday period arrives, Q1 and Q2 last year (current FY) saw around 6m and 7m if we rounded that down due to the years monstrous performance to be conservative lets say 4m and 5m for the new FY's first two quarter that would still put the NS at 93m going into the holiday period.

Nintendo tends to average 10m during the holiday period and as seen with this past holiday period they still hit 11m with no huge release while new platforms were being launched, 10m again this holidays would be 103m surpassing both the Wii and PS1 while moving it into the top five selling platforms of all time."

3rd biggest videogame system shipment in a quarter after the DS?
Wow, that’s amazing!

Interestingly, Nintendo only estimated their sell-through for end of December as being over 74 million.
I find it interesting that their estimated sell-through is below 75 million. None of us would have expected so low, but I’m sure they’ll close that gap between sell-through and shipments quickly enough when they want to. Better this than another Switch shortage. That’s for sure.

Kind of wish Switch reached 80m in 2020, but at least it was very close.

In 2021, I could see Switch ending with over 100 million in sales, or at least close to it and then passing it in Q1 2022. This is a breakdown of all the sales goals I hope Switch achieves in 2021 and the quarter I hope to see it, as well as the percent chance I give of it happening in that quarter:

1. Surpass GBA- Q1 (100%)
2. Surpass PSP- Q1 (100%)
3. Surpass 360- Q2 (99%), Q3 (100%)
4. Surpass PS3- Q3 (99%), Q4 (100%)
5. Reach 100 Million- Q4 (95%), Q1 2022 (100%)
6. Surpass Wii- Q4 (90%), Q1 2022 (100%)
7. Surpass PS1 - Q4 (85%), Q1 2022 (100%)

Ultimately, I'd like for Switch to end the year around 103 million. A total of about 23 million in 2021, a slight drop off from 2020, but still understandable. I do see us getting a better lineup, as well as price cuts and revisions, which is why the drop isn't as bad as one would think. I could see it being 21 or 22 million though, but I don't see it being less than 2019. And then next year we can look at Switch surpassing GB & PS4 (the latter will probably surpass the former by a little bit by then).

Breakdown of how I picture Switch sales by quarter this year:

Q1: 3 million

Q2: 3.5 million

Q3: 4 million (Switch revision/price cut/BOTW 2)

Q4: 12 million (DP remakes)

If Switch could have a great holiday with no big titles, surely it can do slightly better with big titles, price cut and revisions. This kind of mirrors 2019, in terms of what was released.

PS1 is surely what you meant to type. I think we can be in agreement that PS2 is out of reach.

Switch will pass PS1 by the end of this year under current momentum it's at 80m so yeah he probably meant that.

Not saying Switch won't end up selling more than PS2 but bold is surely a typo.

@ireadtabloids @Wyrdness @Replicant Yep, I meant PS1. My bad! Surpassing the PS2 does seem nearly impossible. Not entirely out of the question just yet, but definitely too early to tell.

I'm hopeful that it does surpass the PS2 one day though. It really depends on what Nintendo has up their sleeves going forward.