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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

Geralt99 said:
Prediction:Switch will go past 100 million and max out at 110

Sounds about right.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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RolStoppable said:

UPDATE: July 30th, 2019

Switch - 36.87m (+2.13m this quarter)
Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 17.89m (+1.20m)
Super Mario Odyssey - 14.94m (+0.50m)
Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 14.73m (+0.92m)
The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - 13.61m (+0.84m)
Pokémon: Let's Go, Eevee/Pikachu! - 10.98m (+0.35m)
Splatoon 2 - 9.02m (+0.32m)
Super Mario Party - 6.99m (+0.59m)
New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe - 4.10m (+0.79m)
1-2-Switch - 3.01m (+0.04m)
Mario Tennis Aces - 2.75m (+0.11m)

Switch hardware shipments in quarter 1 of any given fiscal year so far remain underwhelming, but this is the best Q1 Switch has had so far. Sell-through rates have been notably better in comparison to one year ago, so the only marginally higher shipments are likely due to the original Switch SKU being phased out by August and September, depending on region. For the entire last fiscal year, Switch shipped 16.95m units. The current fiscal year is 0.25m ahead after Q1, so Nintendo's forecast of 18m remains unchanged. Q2 will see the launch of an improved standard SKU with better battery life, but more importantly, also the launch of the handheld-only Switch Lite, so last year's Q2 of 3.19m should be comfortably exceeded by 0.5m or more, keeping Switch on track to beat the SNES's lifetime sales of 49.10m by the end of calendar year 2019. For comparison, the 3DS needed one year more than Switch to beat the SNES.

On the software front, Super Mario Odyssey and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate are poised to crack the 15m barrier in the next update. Splatoon 2 will have to wait until the end of the calendar year to celebrate the 10m mark which will bring the total of 10m+ sellers to seven when Pokémon Sword/Shield is accounted for. Breath of the Wild will be the fourth 15m+ seller by the end of the calendar year and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe the first 20m+ seller.

We also have a better regional breakdown.

Japan 8.76m

Americas: 14.84m

Europe: 9.6m

Other: 3.69m

The Switch is currently 4.4m ahead of 3DS, which is 14.4%. If 14.4% holds, then the Switch will sell ~85m. Many people expect more than that though, of course. I am curious on what kind of regional breakdown you would expect Switch to have with its final LTD.



With the price point of the NS lite, i see 100 million coming up .



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Geralt99 said:
Prediction:Switch will go past 100 million and max out at 110

Yeah, it beating PSOne and Wii on the long run seems almost like a given by now.

But can it go even farter? I think the Lite will give us some answers on that this holiday season.



Any new updates?



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OTBWY said:
Any new updates?

First week August I think



Wyrdness said:
OTBWY said:
Any new updates?

First week August I think

Rol already missed a major one so theres no guarantee of that week either.



I didn't even notice Super Mario Party had passed 10mil in March. Remember when Mario Party wasn't a big seller anymore? I memba'.



@RolStoppable : Do you want to make a late update for March 2020 or do you want to wait until August and skip the last quarter?



And we need another update here.