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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

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wasn't there a group on here that felt there was no way it didnt sell up to 15M last year?



Intrinsic said:
wasn't there a group on here that felt there was no way it didnt sell up to 15M last year?

thats everywhere you go on the internet. They will always say Nintendo this and that and Switch was DOA. etc etc



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RolStoppable said:
Intrinsic said:
wasn't there a group on here that felt there was no way it didnt sell up to 15M last year?

Yeah, there were some people who predicted less than Wii U lifetime.

Your past self from one year ago isn't faring well either.

Intrinsic said:

I called probably argue on most of the points you made... but it would take too much work and I'm hungry. So instead i will say....

You sound the same way nintendo fans start at the start of every generation nintendo gets into.

There is always the claim of there being third party support then there is the cop out of third parties not being relevant.

There would be claims of it being on par sepc wise with whats out there just look at the NX(NS). We went from it even going to be more powerful than the PS4 to the cop out now of how power doesnt matter and this is the best thing ever.

Then that whole nintendo games and people buy nintendo consoles for nintendo games. All i will say to this is; how many of those people remain? Just look at the wiiU. Or do some here think that the wii sold so well because of nintendo games?

Anyways my predicion is no more than 35-40M lifetime. And my reason is price and no third parties.

People do buy Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games.

I still stand by that prediction though, albeit now I have revised it by around 15 to 20M. So now it stands at 50M to 60M lifetime.

Still for the same reasons I gave then, a lack of third parties and price. If any of those two change meaningfully then it would be more.

But these are just predictions, I am ok being wrong. Its not like I want them to fail or something... Just do not agree with nintendo's recipe for success.



Intrinsic said:
RolStoppable said:

Yeah, there were some people who predicted less than Wii U lifetime.

Your past self from one year ago isn't faring well either.

People do buy Nintendo consoles for Nintendo games.

I still stand by that prediction though, albeit now I have revised it by around 15 to 20M. So now it stands at 50M to 60M lifetime.

Still for the same reasons I gave then, a lack of third parties and price. If any of those two change meaningfully then it would be more.

But these are just predictions, I am ok being wrong. Its not like I want them to fail or something... Just do not agree with nintendo's recipe for success.

You stand by that prediction yet raised it by 50% and are willing to raise it again?

Doesnt sound like you stand by it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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Intrinsic said:
wasn't there a group on here that felt there was no way it didnt sell up to 15M last year?

Perhaps a very, very small group but why call them out when we had dozens of people thinking it would be a massive flop?

Maybe im mixing you up with someone else but it seems like you do this quite a bit, call out a few overly optimistic Nintendo but ignore the dozens of overly pessimistic non Nintendo fans.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:

I still stand by that prediction though, albeit now I have revised it by around 15 to 20M. So now it stands at 50M to 60M lifetime.

Still for the same reasons I gave then, a lack of third parties and price. If any of those two change meaningfully then it would be more.

But these are just predictions, I am ok being wrong. Its not like I want them to fail or something... Just do not agree with nintendo's recipe for success.

You stand by that prediction yet raised it by 50% and are willing to raise it again?

Doesnt sound like you stand by it.

Yup... I stand by it and I have stated my reasons. Its a prediction, I am allowed to make them, be right or wrong and raise or reduce them whenever I want. If Nintendo or sony can modify their estimates why can't I?

Unless I am mistaken, nintendos estimates has changed from what hey originally were for 2017 by as much at 100%. By their standards my 50% shift is modest.

zorg1000 said:
Intrinsic said:
wasn't there a group on here that felt there was no way it didnt sell up to 15M last year?

Perhaps a very, very small group but why call them out when we had dozens of people thinking it would be a massive flop?

Maybe im mixing you up with someone else but it seems like you do this quite a bit, call out a few overly optimistic Nintendo but ignore the dozens of overly pessimistic non Nintendo fans.

Yes, you are mixing me up with someone else. I do call out overly pessimistic fans though..... nintendo or not.



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

You stand by that prediction yet raised it by 50% and are willing to raise it again?

Doesnt sound like you stand by it.

Yup... I stand by it and I have stated my reasons. Its a prediction, I am allowed to make them, be right or wrong and raise or reduce them whenever I want. If Nintendo or sony can modify their estimates why can't I?

Unless I am mistaken, nintendos estimates has changed from what hey originally were for 2017 by as much at 100%. By their standards my 50% shift is modest.

zorg1000 said:

Perhaps a very, very small group but why call them out when we had dozens of people thinking it would be a massive flop?

Maybe im mixing you up with someone else but it seems like you do this quite a bit, call out a few overly optimistic Nintendo but ignore the dozens of overly pessimistic non Nintendo fans.

Yes, you are mixing me up with someone else. I do call out overly pessimistic fans though..... nintendo or not.

That doesnt make any sense.

You can't stand by a prediction then raise it 50% then raise it again. Thats not standing by it. Plain and simple.

 

And sorry, thought it was you.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

zorg1000 said:

That doesnt make any sense.

You can't stand by a prediction then raise it 50% then raise it again. Thats not standing by it. Plain and simple.

 

And sorry, thought it was you.

Dude you need to relax.

My prediction is made on my reasoning. And my reasoning is based on pricing and third party support. 

If nothing chnages on either of those fronts in the next year or two then my prediction stands and I stand by it. If something changes then the reasoning behind my prediction has already changed... in which case why should the prediction still stand? 

Don't know why this is so hard for you to understand....... unless you aren't even trying to.

Further more, as I have pointed out.... even Nintendo themselves have made two adjustments to their fiscal year shipment targets. Right now its standing at a number thats about 100% more than what they originally announced. Estimates can change bruh.... deal with it.



Intrinsic said:
zorg1000 said:

That doesnt make any sense.

You can't stand by a prediction then raise it 50% then raise it again. Thats not standing by it. Plain and simple.

 

And sorry, thought it was you.

Dude you need to relax.

My prediction is made on my reasoning. And my reasoning is based on pricing and third party support. 

If nothing chnages on either of those fronts in the next year or two then my prediction stands and I stand by it. If something changes then the reasoning behind my prediction has already changed... in which case why should the prediction still stand? 

Don't know why this is so hard for you to understand....... unless you aren't even trying to.

Further more, as I have pointed out.... even Nintendo themselves have made two adjustments to their fiscal year shipment targets. Right now its standing at a number thats about 100% more than what they originally announced. Estimates can change bruh.... deal with it.

What makes you think im not relaxed?

Im not saying you arent allowed to change your prediction. That never once came out of my mouth.

Im saying changing your prediction by a large amount means you dont stand by it.

This is what you said, "I still stand by that prediction though, albeit now I have revised it by around 15 to 20M. So now it stands at 50M to 60M lifetime"

 

Again, i dont care that you changed your prediction. Im telling you what you said was a contradiction.


Nintendo raising their forcast is 10000% irrelevent to what we are talking about.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.