Did you read his post? He just gave you a detailed explanation why your prediction is completely unrealistic.

You are not being pessimistic. Just add to the fact that you believe that Nintendo is creating artificial demand, the correct term is "strong denial".

He shown npd data only and the switch could easily be front loaded. So yes, I'm being pessimistic about nintendo console sales til it's been out out for a few years.

Amiibo gives alot of weight to the idea that nintendo uses scarcity marketing to help sell their products. 

So with recent numbers coming in it seems that the Switch has a good chance to be the #1 best selling system next year.

In Japan the Switch has no competition. It will get a lot of sales there.
In America the Switch's only competition is the PS4. Going by recent numbers the Switch is giving PS4 a real run for its money. The sales are switching the 1st place spot. Keep in mind that this is PS4's peak year. So this is very good news for the Switch

In Europe and the rest of the world I will assume Switch is sitting in 2nd place most of the time. The Switch sales could be higher than that but I doubt it. The gap here is probably made up in Japan for the Switch.

So Switch will probably even outsell all 8th generation consoles. That is good news as it shows that the gaming market is growing after shrinking so much in 8th generation.

Switch will most likely at end 2017. to be around 10m, that means 10m in less than a year for console that is heavily supply constrained in first 5 months on market, so 40m for life to date sales would also be pessimistic prediction.

Yes, most of this year Switch will be heavily supply constrained, so it will be interesting to see sales for full year without supply problems and compared them with PS4 sales.

To end of July Switch sales are 1.8 mln in US, correct?

If we look to 3DS sales, then to the end of year we have to pick up this score 3 times.

So, by the end of 2017 Switch sales will be around 5-6 mln in US only. Is there a chance for that result? What do you think?

So, looking at the Wii U's first 14 months (roughly) - that is, launch through end of 2013 - it sold an estimated 5,360,501 units world wide. Taking Nintendo's numbers, factoring in the high sell through rate in most regions, adding the Japanese numbers for July and the NPD numbers for July and factoring in Europe and the rest of the world, it's safe to say the Switch has already cruised past that total as of now. So the Switch in it's first 5.5 months (bit less than that actually) which included only its launch has sold more than the Wii U did in its first 14 months which included its launch + two holiday periods.

Yeah since this year is PS4's peak and Switch will only go up next year (Assuming Nintendo is not  doing somthing stupid) the PS4 might be consistently outsold next year.  Next year will be the last year the PS4 can put up any fight since the PS5 will be out next year or 2019. 

No, 4.5 million is probably the absolute best we can hope for in the US this year. 3DS production was very high since Nintendo was still under the influence of their massive success in the seventh generation, and they expected the 3DS to sell even better than the DS did in its first year. In March alone, they shipped 1.32 million 3DS systems to the Americas, but it wasn't until September that the 3DS actually passed that amount in the US. The 3DS was massively overproduced and overshipped. It was only thanks to the $80 price cut that Nintendo managed to sell all of the systems they produced that year. On the other hand, Nintendo underestimated initial demand for the Switch, so their production capacity is much lower than actual demand at this point. They can't suddenly ship another 4 million consoles to the Americas from July to December like they did for the 3DS.

Too bad i wasn't on VGC for a while... even so, my eyes were better than everyone.

Good thread Rol.

Nah, 8 million LTD, it’s just front loaded