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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

TruckOSaurus said:
Aeolus451 said:
We'll see how it plays out. I think it will do around 30 to 40 mil, could be lower tbh. It's IPs mainly appeal to a niche part of the market (gamers) outside of pokemon and it's price is too high. Without at least decent 3rd party support (or new & different IPs) to supplement it's staple of 1st party games, it won't be able to grab the attention of the general gamer. Threads like this make for fun necros.

Can't remember if it was you but this reminds me of when I had to argue with someone that games selling in the area of 5 to 10 million copies aren't niche.

I don't know if it was me but if I am that person then you're making the same mistake again. You might want to make sure I'm saying that Nintendo's IPs are niche and not that portion of gamers nintendo focuses on before you start giving me examples of how much a nintendo game sold....

 



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Wyrdness said:
Aeolus451 said:

Do they help sell 70 million + consoles on a regular basis?

They have with Portables and what logic dictates that a platform has to sell over 70m to not be niche.

That's good for handhelds but it only makes up only 17% of the total market (around there) according to statistics on gaming as a whole so it doesn't counter what I said earlier. More importantly, what about the other market they are in? I didn't say anything about niche in that context.



Aeolus451 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

Can't remember if it was you but this reminds me of when I had to argue with someone that games selling in the area of 5 to 10 million copies aren't niche.

I don't know if it was me but if I am that person then you're making the same mistake again. You might want to make sure I'm saying that Nintendo's IPs are niche and not that portion of gamers nintendo focuses on before you start giving me examples of how much a nintendo game sold....

 

Your last sentence is so badly written, I'm not sure what you're saying anymore.



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Aeolus451 said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

I know we already had this conversation before, but your points make even less sense now. You say it appeals to a niche part of the market - "gamers" - but Nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other and beyond that "gamers" take up a majority of the console market. And then you say it wont sell to the general gamer. What?

 

Nintendo have so many successful franchises that sell widely different to the point that people pit games in different tiers. Even though this is logical it often goes to the point of ridiculousness - like when people said Prime 4 was "too niche" to be made, or that Zelda should have been Holiday title because "its not that big" or when people thought only Pokemon could save the Switch. Pokemon is probably Nintendos most consistent selling series but honestly people forget that Mario Kart and Smash bros can do about the same as pokemon. Both franchises have had an increase in attach rate and will probably sell 13-15 mil depending on if they are original games or not. Add to that Zeldas market share increasing to 9-11 mil, and it is very possible animal crossing and a 3d mario will meet Pokemon. Splatoon 2 is also debatable. 

 

 

Nintendo focuses on children and young teenagers while the rest of the big 3/ third party game devs focus on teenagers and adults. So you could word it as "nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other and beyond that gamers take up on a majority of the gaming market" and you wouldn't be wrong.  

Pokemon is in a league of it's own with brand recognition and more importantly, people wanting to buy products in relation to it in comparison to the rest of nintendo's staple of games. It is the only IP nintendo has that has reach outside of the gaming market. Just the shows ensure kids everywhere know of it and like it. Zelda might be the closest to it though.  

You have to be joking. Mario is a far more recognizable brand worldwide than Pokemon (although Pokemon is much more lucrative) and it has been restricted to gaming since the mid 90s when Nintendo got more conservative with their IPs. It is definitely changing now with the future theme parks and rumored Nickelodeon show.

 

The anime isn't that popular anymore and you are really overestimating the exposure a cartoon will have especially when kids are less and less reluctant to watch TV these days. And are you seriously insane? How can you think Zelda is next in line? Nintendo has enough with Mario and Pokemon to get enough kids to buy into the Switch with their brand alone through gaming. They don't need outside exposure.



TruckOSaurus said:
Aeolus451 said:

I don't know if it was me but if I am that person then you're making the same mistake again. You might want to make sure I'm saying that Nintendo's IPs are niche and not that portion of gamers nintendo focuses on before you start giving me examples of how much a nintendo game sold....

 

Your last sentence is so badly written, I'm not sure what you're saying anymore.

i did leave out a word or two. You should have been able to understand what I meant. *shrugs I'll simplify it. Where did I say nintendo's games are niche? 



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newwil7l said:
Aeolus451 said:

Nintendo focuses on children and young teenagers while the rest of the big 3/ third party game devs focus on teenagers and adults. So you could word it as "nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other and beyond that gamers take up on a majority of the gaming market" and you wouldn't be wrong.  

Pokemon is in a league of it's own with brand recognition and more importantly, people wanting to buy products in relation to it in comparison to the rest of nintendo's staple of games. It is the only IP nintendo has that has reach outside of the gaming market. Just the shows ensure kids everywhere know of it and like it. Zelda might be the closest to it though.  

You have to be joking. Mario is a far more recognizable brand worldwide than Pokemon (although Pokemon is much more lucrative) and it has been restricted to gaming since the mid 90s when Nintendo got more conservative with their IPs. It is definitely changing now with the future theme parks and rumored Nickelodeon show.

 

The anime isn't that popular anymore and you are really overestimating the exposure a cartoon will have especially when kids are less and less reluctant to watch TV these days. And are you seriously insane? How can you think Zelda is next in line? Nintendo has enough with Mario and Pokemon to get enough kids to buy into the Switch with their brand alone through gaming. They don't need outside exposure.

Mario could be argued that it as well known as pokemon but do people really care about it outside of gaming? No. A lot of people know of the beatles but do they listen to it or buy anything related to them? A few do but the mass majority of people don't care. Mario is like the beatles in that sense outside of gaming.  Pokemon is in a league of it's own in terms of brand awareness, the range of products that are attached to it and it's reach. Just look at how popular pokemon go is. 



Aeolus451 said:
TruckOSaurus said:

Your last sentence is so badly written, I'm not sure what you're saying anymore.

i did leave out a word or two. You should have been able to understand what I meant. *shrugs I'll simplify it. Where did I say nintendo's games are niche? 

That's what I did think you said but it seems you're saying that gaming is a niche market instead?



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Aeolus451 said:

"That's part of it but hardly the only thing. Anyone who's objective about it can see and admit that Nintendo designs/markets their games towards that demographic in general. From the commercials, character designs, theme of the games, game covers, etc it's fairly evident that it is the case. That doesn't mean that the the older nintendo fans are immature or anything like that just because they play nintendo games. I know that part of the reason why a lot of nintendo fans are so defensive about this particular thing is that they think it's being implied or said that they are immature for playing those games."

You make a good point here but I think it's rendered a little invalid for a few reasons. One - the Switch's marketing is still almost exclusively with adults and teenagers. If we were to make a false equivalency where a console's superficial marketing determines what the age bracket is, then the use of teenagers and adults over kids would take precidence over a "kiddy" art style because that's up to the game's developers, and is seperate from the console itself. There's two big reasons why Nintendo sticks with a cartoony art style even for something like Zelda - the uniqueness of it; most adult Nintendo fans have grown up with Nintendo and love their unique art styles, and along with that the fact that it reserves power. Nintendo would be in the shitter if they focused on realistic  graphics with the Switch, so while yes their cartoony sensibilities seem "kiddy" there's a lot of reasons to consider why they choose that style, and I don't think it's just to appeal to kids, although that has a small part in it.

"Anyway, I think their strategy is and has always been to get a kid to want it and he/she tells their about parents about it."

https://youtu.be/tkI6c6MvBko  Literally a video addressing this  : D 

" I think they're flawed for the most part because of the people who are doing the surveys/data collecting aren't gamers so they're just lumping things together. Mobile and social shouldn't be included into the totals at all. I wouldn't call mobile/social players, gamers per se because most of them are completely ignorant of gaming culture and the other gaming markets. " 

Previous response :  "Now obviously it's hard to know what are considered "games" but a lot of these studies specifically focus on computers and consoles titles , which is much better than including mobile titles."

Why are you pretending like you haven't read what i wrote? Anyways, it's hard to know because the study isn't very specific, but some of the stuff actually points to one thing and then another. For instance they say that only 29% of gamers are under 18, but then say tha 74% of k-8 teachers use learning games. To me, this means that the study is doing it's job and seperating mobile/learning games from real games, since the statistic would *HAVE* to be higher. 

Another study says that 65% of users own a video game playing device, while 48% own a dedicated game console. Of course this looks like a terrible pool until you realize PC might not be included in that bracket of dedicated consoles. To add to that, 47% of gamers in the study including mobile, pc and console games are between the ages of 18 and 49, which correlates nicely to the amount of people who own a dedicated console. And the average frequent purchaser of video games is 38. Again, this is not the be all end all of arguments, but I don't think that kids, or young teens take up as much of the market as you'd think. If studies didn't rule in mobile, the conclusion would still probably be that young adults to middle aged people are buying the majority of hardcore PC and console real estate, since most people who clog up the mobile database and don't play actual games are incredibly old people or incredibly young people. But again, I really think the rabid fanbase of adults regarding the Switch is more improtant than this argument. I've just simply seen more adults talk about the system tehn kids.

"I meant "It is the only IP, nintendo has that has reach outside of the gaming market" to be with "Pokemon is in a league of it's own with brand recognition and more importantly, people wanting to buy products in relation to it in comparison to the rest of nintendo's staple of games.".  i didn't mean that people don't know of nintendo's characters."

Right...which is what i'm addressing...

" People know of nintendo's staple of characters but that doesn't mean that want to buy anything related to them. They don't have the kind of consumer appeal/reach outside of gaming that pokemon does on a wordwide level with products related to it. it's why I used the show as an example. " 

Here's where things get tricky. In order for you to be correct, you'd have to do mental gymnastics. If you mean to say that Pokemon is the only Nintendo series that has appeal in movies, animation, and playing cards outside of gaming ... then you are technically correct? But I assume we're talking about the abilitiy to take people outside of gaming and make them buy a game ... which is what I've been addressing this whole time. The first point of view has no place in a discussion about whether or not a series of games are niche, because a Mario game can still pull in people who aren't gamers, whether or not it has an anime.  We're talking about games and realistically speaking Mario, Smash Brothers and Mario Kart have just about as much of a chance to get people into games as Pokemon does. 

"We've been over niche before, haven't we? I'm sure it was you I had this talk with on it."

Previously : " I know we already had this conversation before, but your points make even less sense now. You say it appeals to a niche part of the market - "gamers" - but Nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other and beyond that "gamers" take up a majority of the console market. And then you say it wont sell to the general gamer. What? " 

"He says stuff like this consistently."

Have you just not read anything I posted ? 

"I used it in the way i did before in a different thread but yet again, you're conflating it as "the games being niche". I didn't call nintendo games or it's staple of characters niche. I was referring to the part of the market that nintendo focuses on being niche."

Now this literally makes no sense. This ENTIRE discussion we've talked about how you believe that kids are the majority - "Nintendo focuses on children and young teenagers while the rest of the big 3/ third party game devs focus on teenagers and adults. So you could word it as "nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other and beyond that gamers take up on a majority of the gaming market" and you wouldn't be wrong.  " 

And I stated "kids and young teens are actually a minority"(which to be fair is debatable, but even if it is wrong that doesn't really change my point since I believe Nintendo games cover almost all demographics), which made you defend the point that kids and young teens are a majority, and that Nintendo mainly focuses on that. And now you're saying that the section of the market Nintendo focuses on is niche? Do you have no consistentcy? This literally makes no sense. You've been saying this entire time that young teens and kids take up a majority of the market - hence why I could make the statement "nintendo games have a much wider demographic than any other" and you yourself said that would be in the right. That's not "niche" that is literally adressing a majority of the market.

Either way, a big problem I have with your arguments is that you focus too much on art design to make a coherent point about how Nintendo games are mainly made for kids. Yes, some Nintendo games are clearly easy games and a majority of their games are cartoony - but I think the latter has more to do with consistency and wanting to utilize hardware to the greatest potential. Nintendo games are quite often made with a wide demographic - from Kindgeraten to adults - in mind. It's why you have games like Breath of the Wild which is hard as balls, or Splatoon 2 which emphasises team work and down plays instant gratification, you'd also have to have much better motor skills and hand-eye coordination to play Splatoon than that of most kids. But look, even if Nintendo literally put a print on their games saying "THIS IS ONLY A KIDS GAMES! NO ADULTS ALLOWED!" that wouldn't change that kids, - and especially adults and older teenagers, are interested in the Switch. It's possible for a company to misunderstand their market share, hell it's what happened with the entirity of the Wii U era and its' why Nintendo rectified the marketing with the switch. All of this is to say that even if Nintendo only wanted kids to play their games, your point makes no sense anyways, because  there isn't a coorelation with your ideas - everyone from kids to young teens to old teens to young adults to adults play Nintendo games, and the marketshare in that respect has been becoming more even for a long time now, possibly even skewing to adults. Your point is detached from reality, no matter how much you think Nintendo's big game plan is to market just to kids, and no matter how accurate that idea is - because by law of the marketshare, there games wouldd still have a bigger demographic and wouldn't be niche. 



Aeolus451 said:
newwil7l said:

You have to be joking. Mario is a far more recognizable brand worldwide than Pokemon (although Pokemon is much more lucrative) and it has been restricted to gaming since the mid 90s when Nintendo got more conservative with their IPs. It is definitely changing now with the future theme parks and rumored Nickelodeon show.

 

The anime isn't that popular anymore and you are really overestimating the exposure a cartoon will have especially when kids are less and less reluctant to watch TV these days. And are you seriously insane? How can you think Zelda is next in line? Nintendo has enough with Mario and Pokemon to get enough kids to buy into the Switch with their brand alone through gaming. They don't need outside exposure.

Mario could be argued that it as well known as pokemon but do people really care about it outside of gaming? No. A lot of people know of the beatles but do they listen to it or buy anything related to them? A few do but the mass majority of people don't care. Mario is like the beatles in that sense outside of gaming.  Pokemon is in a league of it's own in terms of brand awareness, the range of products that are attached to it and it's reach. Just look at how popular pokemon go is. 

If no one cared about it outside of gaming, Universal wouldn't have bothered workig with Nintnedo to create Mario theme parks. Also if I remember correctly Super Mario Run was downloaded faster than Pokemon Go and any other app on history. The 10 price tag killed it though and was a colossal screw up.



RolStoppable said:

I'll try to trim the fat of this discussion some more to focus on the core again. I don't think home-only or handheld-only revisions are likely, but things like a different size or improved battery life are proven methods to shift more hardware; the main point about revisions is that they are very realistic to happen, what they are going to be will depend on what Nintendo views as desired features by the broader market.

But back to the core of this bloated discussion: How can Switch grow beyond 40m units. You still assume that sequels won't be able to keep the system going, but we can look at the 3DS which was almost completely devoid of new Nintendo IPs that made a meaningful impact. The 3DS has already sold more than 65m and is bound to go beyond the 70m mark. By the end of 2013 (close to three full years on the market) it had essentially all of the established IPs it was going to get. In the following years it got more installments of already present IPs while the few new IPs didn't gain any traction. But despite all of that, the 3DS kept selling and improved from ~40m to what will eventually be over 70m. Basically, the 3DS is a practical example of a console that is close to the worst case scenario.

Perhaps you are looking at this in the wrong way. Maybe you think "how can Switch peak in year 5 or 6" and that makes you go off the rails. I don't think of such an unusual sales curve. If I look at Switch's current sales pace and use very round and rather modest numbers for argument's sake, then I get something like this for calendar years:

2017 - 10m
2018 - 15m
2019 - 15m
2020 - 10m
2021 - 10m
2022 - 5m

Switch has sold through over 4m units by the end of June, so 10m in 2017 isn't a bold estimate. Sales of successful systems always increase in year 2 while year 3 is good as well. At that point Switch has already 40m. The three years afterwards mimic the 3DS scenario: Nintendo fails to put out successful new IPs, but the back catalogue and sequels to established IPs still sustain sales. That's why it's strange to see people doubting if Switch can sell more than 50m units lifetime. Once you factor in that Switch has a very positive market reception while the 3DS had to battle against a negative reaction throughout its entire life, the numbers listed above seem really low. Some terrible things would have to happen to drag down Switch to 3DS levels.

I'm not sure different size alone is a proven method to shift more hardware when we haven't seen the effect independent of price drops ... (that ties in to my point of this generation having a tighter cost structure, Nintendo owes more credit to advances in transistor technology than it does) 

The 3DS had lot's of things to soften the blow in the presence of no new Nintendo IPs such as dormant IPs (Luigi's Mansion and Kid Icarus), adapting IPs that originally came from consoles (Smash Bros and Donkey Kong Country Returns), emerging third party IPs (Monster Hunter, Yokai Watch and Bravely default) and IPs that grew (Tomodachi Life and Fire Emblem) ... (not only did I doubt Switch's monopoly advantage to begin with but Nintendo already grew at the expense of Sony with the 3DS and there's less chances than ever for new high quality third party IPs to emerge with the Switch's higher development costs) 

Then we have other issues such as Nintendo's demographic of aging customers who might very well one day grow apart from Nintendo but despite all the bashing of very young people around these boards Sony is not blind enough to not try to appeal to the parents of those people who may very well one day grow up with dispoable income to buy their new systems. One very obvious thing is that Nintendo needs to appeal to a broader demographic beyond the older males or they could face the risk of failing to grow or worse yet face a decline and Nintendo needs to try rectifying that with the Switch much like they did with the WII/DS ...

I'm not expecting the Switch to peak at it's 4th or 5th year, what I want to know is if the Switch can 'maintain' or 'hold' a high volume of hardware sales in those years ... (It sounds pretty realistic for the Switch to be able to maintain high volume throughout the 4th year from the backlog of games from the previous 3 years but then what ?)

FWIW, I think there's an 85% chance of the Switch passing 50M units so far but there's quite a bit of uncertainty with the Switch hitting 60M units and even more uncertainty with 65M units but if the IPs grow this gen then it can change overtime ... 

While the 3DS did get negative reception initially, I've also learned that consumers can be forgiving as seen with the 3DS a year later on and the same goes relatively for the PS4 in Japan ... (I can't forsee the Switch having the price advantage like the 3DS did either.)