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Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

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How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.04%
 
10M-20M 125 12.95%
 
20M-30M 137 14.20%
 
30M-40M 143 14.82%
 
40M-50M 121 12.54%
 
50M-60M 120 12.44%
 
60M-70M 70 7.25%
 
70M-80M 60 6.22%
 
80M-100M 59 6.11%
 
> 100M 91 9.43%
 
Total:965

I hope -> 60~70
I think -> 30~40



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Too early to tell

But since I posted here I'll hazard a random guess of 40M



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Given what is already announced, I'd say 10 million.
If they follow through according to my expectations, maybe 40 million.


If they release Rem and Ram Joy-Cons, 500 million.



 
I WON A BET AGAINST AZUREN! WOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

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About 80m



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

GProgrammer said:

I will say about 20 Million lifetime, Remember this thread

Wii U prediction

I remember the July one.

Gamerace predicting GC-level sales was the closest I think. TWRoo with a 30m low-end.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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First year - 7 million
Lifetime - 55 million



Ill go with 40-50 million.



I'm going to guess 60-70 million with the caviot being Nintendo does actually fully commit to it, rather than release another handheld system. If in 2 years somehow something like a '4DS' releases then I would cut my prediction in half

but if Nintendo genuinely does commit to dedicating both their handheld wing and home console wing (in terms of production dev teams) to the Switch, then I see it most likely matching the 3DS in sales. Price points will drop at some point

 

again though, this is under the assumption Nintendo really is merging their markets. If a 3DS sequel system comes out then that would damage the Switch because there are always going to be some gamers who would prefer a a handheld specific system for a cheaper price point.

The reality is Nintendo at this point would probably be wise to end the 3DS in a year or so and fully commit on the Switch. IF they give consumers options and divide the fanbase again, the Switch would be cannibalized because they would essentially have two wings that both share some of the handheld market

 

I see no reason it won't sell fantastically if Nintendo is going full force on it. And by that I mean exclusive Pokemon games, exclusive deals on Yokai Watch, exclusive deals on Monster Hunter with Capcom (an automatic assumption if the Switch is to be their future primary handheld device), and then all of the regular series for Nintendo's home consoles 

those suggesting like 30 million are being a bit unrealistic if the Switch does end up being Nintendo's (basically) only platform for the next few years. In the end I think its less of the hardware that would bring people in as much as there are enough franchise fans to loop in to make pretty high hardware sales

a new Mario Kart + new 3D Mario + Pokemon + Monster Hunter? if the dedication of titles is there and focused specifically on the Switch I think things will go very well. a unified library is key and arguably the #1 selling point of a system like the Switch IMO. Conceptually it is what the system suggests anyway, going from TV gaming to portable gaming in a moments notice. Which is one big reason that I am dismayed Nintendo hasn't hinted something about Pokemon on the Switch immediately. seems like a no brainer way to suggest to consumers that "hey, we're bringing the handheld market hard with the  Switch"



I originally predicted 40m. I thought it would be considered a success. But after this reveal and the sorry launch lineup I'm changing my prediction to 25m units. I'm also predicting it will be quickly abandoned by 3rd parties and eventually Nintendo themselves will stop actively developing for it after year 3. Expect another underpowered Nintendo console sometime around 2021.



I think this will be one of the Switch's stronger years for exclusives. I would guess 8-9 mil for 2017 and 50 mil lifetime.