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Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.04%
 
10M-20M 125 12.95%
 
20M-30M 137 14.20%
 
30M-40M 143 14.82%
 
40M-50M 121 12.54%
 
50M-60M 120 12.44%
 
60M-70M 70 7.25%
 
70M-80M 60 6.22%
 
80M-100M 59 6.11%
 
> 100M 91 9.43%
 
Total:965
Wyrdness said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I am talking about North America.  However, it was also cheap considered to computers in Japan.  You can't really compare it to other consoles in Japan, because it was the first.  Any way you cut it, the NES was designed to be a cheap system with the weakest hardware available.  They got decent looking graphics with their graphics chip, but they cheaped in every other way possible.  Their whole business model, even for the Famicom, was to go cheap.

You can talk about US as much as you want it still doesn't detract from the original point you replied to NES on its release in 1983 was significantly powerful so it doesn't fall into the under powered argument you initially made.

Did you even read my post that you just quoted?  I was talking about how it was weak in Japan.



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Dango_ said:
I'm actually surprised at the low expectations. I don't think the Switch is gonna sell more than the Wii or anything, but I mean let's be honest, less than 50 million is almost impossible at the rate it is going.

Sure, but be aware that this thread and the original round of votes are from before the system launched. :)



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Wyrdness said:

You can talk about US as much as you want it still doesn't detract from the original point you replied to NES on its release in 1983 was significantly powerful so it doesn't fall into the under powered argument you initially made.

Did you even read my post that you just quoted?  I was talking about how it was weak in Japan.

Your post only talked about it being cheap not about specs, performance and so on mean while the original person you responded to had an actual comparison shot of two products on two platforms of the time.



Jumpin said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I am talking about North America.  However, it was also cheap considered to computers in Japan.  You can't really compare it to other consoles in Japan, because it was the first.  Any way you cut it, the NES was designed to be a cheap system with the weakest hardware available.  They got decent looking graphics with their graphics chip, but they cheaped in every other way possible.  Their whole business model, even for the Famicom, was to go cheap.

Even later in European countries, the NES wasn't really widely available until about the time of the SNES release. Even in the countries where it WAS available, you could only get it in certain cities. While I am sure most gamers and future gamers alive at the time were vaguely aware of Nintendo (mostly through old arcade machines) and the NES, I'd say most people didn't know exactly what it was until about the time Super Mario Bros 3 was announced; very shortly after that, EVERYONE knew the name of Mario and our sword-wielding Hyrule hero Zelda =D

That doesn't surprise me.  The impression I've always gotten from Europe is that they mostly consider the 16-bit consoles to be their "first generation".  I just got a retro game magazine from the UK where they voted Super Mario World #1 game of all time.  They did have a few NES games in their top 100 list, but the list as a whole seemed more slanted toward the 16-bit era.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Jumpin said:

Even later in European countries, the NES wasn't really widely available until about the time of the SNES release. Even in the countries where it WAS available, you could only get it in certain cities. While I am sure most gamers and future gamers alive at the time were vaguely aware of Nintendo (mostly through old arcade machines) and the NES, I'd say most people didn't know exactly what it was until about the time Super Mario Bros 3 was announced; very shortly after that, EVERYONE knew the name of Mario and our sword-wielding Hyrule hero Zelda =D

That doesn't surprise me.  The impression I've always gotten from Europe is that they mostly consider the 16-bit consoles to be their "first generation".  I just got a retro game magazine from the UK where they voted Super Mario World #1 game of all time.  They did have a few NES games in their top 100 list, but the list as a whole seemed more slanted toward the 16-bit era.

I never even noticed consoles until the Dreamcast, so I could be wrong as I cite general knowledge, not my personal experiences. But as far as I'm aware, Atari sued Nintendo in europe and therefore made their entry more difficult. Difficulties which Sega could used for their adavntage. I cannot get numbers for the Sega Master System from the platform totals (maybe I'm blind). But the Sega Megadrive (Genesis) were more successful in europe than both NES and SNES. The initial difficulties Nintendo had in europe are also visible by the SNES selling around 10 million units less than the NES in America, but about the same in europe. And most people here know Sonic as well as Mario, and more people are fan of the hedgehog than the plumber.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018, 2019

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

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Nintendo has slightly missed a great opportunity for switchs second year. Let's see if they can turn it around otherwise no more than GBA levels - which will prompt them to return to the two systems strategy.



Shadow1980 said:
I'd say 80-90 million.

I know it's a little off topic, but I'd be very interested to see your yearly sales expectations for Switch, PS4 and XB1 from 2013-lifetime sales.

According to VGC, PS4 is something like below, right? What do you think it'll end up selling in 2018-lifetime sales?

2013: 4.4 M
2014: 14.6 M
2015: 17.5 M
2016: 17.6 M
2017: 20.1 M
2018: 17.5 M (shipment forecasting)
2019: ?
2020: ?
2021: ?
2022: ?
2023: ?
2024: ?
2025: ?



Barkley said:

let's go with a less confident 35 million figure.

Was a typo, meant to put 85m!



LTD: PS4 - 125m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 51m

2020: PS4 - 10m, Switch - 21.5m, XBO - 2.5m, PS5 - 4.5m, XBX - 2.8m

Helloplite said:
Nintendo has slightly missed a great opportunity for switchs second year. Let's see if they can turn it around otherwise no more than GBA levels - which will prompt them to return to the two systems strategy.

They are still doing better than last year though, and everyone agrees they will have a better holiday than last year 



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I don't know why I keep hearing that the NES had "normal" hardware.  It had same processor as the Atari 2600.  Nintendo seems to do its best work when the hardware is underpowered.

 

The_Liquid_Laser said:

The NES had a graphics chip.  However, it had the same processor as the Atari 2600.  The NES is notorious for flicker and slowdown because its processor was so weak.

 

No, it hadn't. They have processors of the same CPU family, both based on the 6502... not the same CPU!

The Atari 2600 had a dumbed down 6507, clocked 1.19 MHz, with very limited memory access: the chip can only address 8 Kb memory and the cartridge slot limited it further down to addressable 4 KB.

The NES had a Ricoh 2A03, clocked 1.79 MHz.

You also can't just ignore the different co-processors and suggest that both devices had the same limitations, but Nintendo was better in optimization.