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Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.11%
 
10M-20M 125 13.19%
 
20M-30M 137 14.45%
 
30M-40M 143 15.08%
 
40M-50M 121 12.76%
 
50M-60M 120 12.66%
 
60M-70M 70 7.38%
 
70M-80M 59 6.22%
 
80M-100M 57 6.01%
 
> 100M 77 8.12%
 
Total:948
RolStoppable said:
mZuzek said:

Lol and I used to think I was optimistic.

Relative to others you were. Only a small percentage of people was willing to go above 50m.

I assume I was gonna post 60m but then lowered it after reading some of the other posts. I remember the negativity around here after both the reveal trailer and January Presentation, and just didn't understand it - it was pretty clear to me that the Switch had a place in the market and was gonna do well, though I didn't really expect it to do as well as it has done.



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Wow, those predictions...10-20M lol.

I'm thinking this thing is hitting 80-100M depending if they choose to milk it like they are doing the 3DS. It's going to possibly hit 30M without a real Pokemon game, or Animal Crossing, among a ton of other 1st party heavy hitters and 3rd party secrets. It's got a bright future ahead of it, that's for sure.



I think people should not predict sales based on negative feedback on forums. People here and in other forums like Resetera, GameFAQs, 4chan, and N4G are a specific audience, and relatively small ones from a macro point-of-view. Why did Switch sales INCREASE/IMPROVE AFTER E3 2018 even when some here didn't like the E3 Direct, or at least the overwhelming Smash Bros. Ultimate portion of it? Why is 1-2 Switch still selling despite the relatively mediocre reception and hardcore fans hating/making jokes on the game?

We can all predict and have opinions one way or another, But let's also think a little less emotionally (or use the emotions of people from forums), The Switch Presentation in 2017 did its job on selling consumers the concept of the Switch, the games, the price, the launch date, etc. Sure it still had questions then, and even now, but it built a basis on what to expect out of the package and what to look forward to throughout the year at least. The presentations throughout 2017 (and 2018) did their job in pushing games.



Wow, to think at least 70% of the people who voted in this poll thought the Switch would do between 10-60 million lifetime, when it'll end up with much, much more than that.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387

So many 10-20m predictions. :D



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163 people already proven wrong. That will increase by 137 people soon.



Mandalore76 said:
163 people already proven wrong. That will increase by 137 people soon.

Yeah. Luckily it will take another year or so until I'm proven wrong, but I have no doubt at this point the Switch goes straight past 50M.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

What I find interesting is that nearly everyone in this thread thought Switch would ONLY succeed if it got portable titles like Pokemon and Animal Crossing so they could be played on a TV. But it's been a success before those games even came out. What's made Switch successful, IMO, is the opposite: that it had home console quality games like BotW, Mario Odyssey, and Splatoon 2 available on a portable device. We all underestimated how much of a hook that would turn out to be.

And having two legit GOY candidates come out in the first 8 months helps too.



SW-3707-5131-3911

lol
In their defense, it is also selling better than I expected. It is selling about what I expected if it was 250$ since the beginning and dropping to 200$ this year...
Easier to predict this time of switch life, but lets participate too.

If keeping delivering the games and eventual discounts, revisions, switch will still have a couple of 15+ million years, and since Nintendo will prolong its life span compared to the average Nintendo console, we can bet a couple more 8+ million years. That alone would put it at 90M~110M.



I'm holding on to my original prediction for now. 80-100 million.



Pancho A. Ovies

Nintendo Switch in Japan (Famitsu): 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=238945&page=2

PlayStation 4/Xbox One/Nintendo Switch: 2018 vs. 2019
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=239387