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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

 

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.02%
 
10M-20M 125 12.87%
 
20M-30M 137 14.11%
 
30M-40M 143 14.73%
 
40M-50M 121 12.46%
 
50M-60M 120 12.36%
 
60M-70M 70 7.21%
 
70M-80M 60 6.18%
 
80M-100M 60 6.18%
 
> 100M 96 9.89%
 
Total:971

Wow, to think at least 70% of the people who voted in this poll thought the Switch would do between 10-60 million lifetime, when it'll end up with much, much more than that.



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So many 10-20m predictions. :D



163 people already proven wrong. That will increase by 137 people soon.



Mandalore76 said:
163 people already proven wrong. That will increase by 137 people soon.

Yeah. Luckily it will take another year or so until I'm proven wrong, but I have no doubt at this point the Switch goes straight past 50M.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

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What I find interesting is that nearly everyone in this thread thought Switch would ONLY succeed if it got portable titles like Pokemon and Animal Crossing so they could be played on a TV. But it's been a success before those games even came out. What's made Switch successful, IMO, is the opposite: that it had home console quality games like BotW, Mario Odyssey, and Splatoon 2 available on a portable device. We all underestimated how much of a hook that would turn out to be.

And having two legit GOY candidates come out in the first 8 months helps too.



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
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lol
In their defense, it is also selling better than I expected. It is selling about what I expected if it was 250$ since the beginning and dropping to 200$ this year...
Easier to predict this time of switch life, but lets participate too.

If keeping delivering the games and eventual discounts, revisions, switch will still have a couple of 15+ million years, and since Nintendo will prolong its life span compared to the average Nintendo console, we can bet a couple more 8+ million years. That alone would put it at 90M~110M.



I'm holding on to my original prediction for now. 80-100 million.



Posting a picture of the poll from March here, since people are still voting which changes the results.

 



http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224719&page=1



kenjab said:
What I find interesting is that nearly everyone in this thread thought Switch would ONLY succeed if it got portable titles like Pokemon and Animal Crossing so they could be played on a TV. But it's been a success before those games even came out. What's made Switch successful, IMO, is the opposite: that it had home console quality games like BotW, Mario Odyssey, and Splatoon 2 available on a portable device. We all underestimated how much of a hook that would turn out to be.

And having two legit GOY candidates come out in the first 8 months helps too.

It's absolutely true that the selling power of home console quality games (relatively) on a handheld was a point that was massively underestimated, which is surprising given that it was well acknowledged as it's main selling point and a lot of the "optimistic" predictions at the time (50M+) were mostly formed out of that fact. 

Personally though, I think the most underestimated factor was just the hardware. Playstation and Xbox fans like to generalize the Nintendo audience as not caring about hardware, but since 99% of the market for all consoles is casual gamers, having hardware that is both sleek, easy to use, easy on the eyes, and powerful enough to actually carry out it's selling point (unlike say the Vita) makes all the difference. It wasn't a plastic piece of turd like the fisher price tablet. Nintendo's best selling consoles are always the ones that almost perfect their concept, relative to the time (Gameboy, Gameboy Advance, DS, Wii)