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Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.11%
 
10M-20M 125 13.19%
 
20M-30M 137 14.45%
 
30M-40M 143 15.08%
 
40M-50M 121 12.76%
 
50M-60M 120 12.66%
 
60M-70M 70 7.38%
 
70M-80M 59 6.22%
 
80M-100M 57 6.01%
 
> 100M 77 8.12%
 
Total:948
Mnementh said:

To give an update about the standings of the poll.

 lower than 10M 35 5.09%  
10M-20M 116 16.89%
20M-30M 120 17.47%
30M-40M 120 17.47%
40M-50M 93 13.54%
50M-60M 83 12.08%
60M-70M 45 6.55%
70M-80M 30 4.37%
80M-100M 15 2.18%
 bigger than 100M 30 4.37%  
Total: 687

The majority of people in that result it won't surpass 40 million sold?  Maybe I am putting too much stock in handhelds in Japan, but 50 million seems doable, especially given I anticipate the Switch to spend significant portion of its life at $199 price point.



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No Vita 2, No 4DS, No Wii U 2, etc, All of those game developers will have the switch as the only 9th gen handheld console to go to.

And, it is the most advanced hardware on a handheld console by a long shot. Plus, it is always multiplayer ready with 2 joycon. Full Nintendo support on one system. Great fun for parties, etc. Oh and icing on the cake, it is also a Home Console. :P

I would say:

8M by Dec. 31, 2017
80M Lifetime



I keep seeing people say all those developers for portables have to go to Switch. Are their really that much developers that were ONLY developing for handhelds? Cause indies could keep supporting home consoles and PCs and major 3rd party dev studios could be allocated to doing other things



interesting to read in retrospect.



Finale said:
interesting to read in retrospect.

Haha yeah, this thread was made right after Nintendo Switch's hardware launch price/game lineup reveal.

There was a lot of doubts in the air, I thought it would have a slow start and ramp up in year 2 once the library built up and then accelerated a ton with Pokemon.

How was I supposed to know it would sell more in the first 12 months than any video game system ever (besides the GBA's first 12 months)?


...I mean, it did only launch with 6 games and the library took a few months to expand in variety, but Zelda and Mario Kart did their magic hard and fast to keep demand sky high as people were paying $400+ to scalpers all the way until late July.

I said 80M LTD in this thread, but after E3 2017 we had a better idea of things to come, so I revised my prediction to 110M LTD, I haven't revised it since, but that  number can change quite a bit depending on what choices Nintendo makes with hardware revisions, long term first party support, third party collaborations, etc.

By the time and information of January 2020's quarterly results (more than a year out from now), things should be fairly clear on the general long term direction of the Nintendo Switch.



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I am surprised how pessimistic most people were on the Switch. I thought it was pretty obvious that the Switch would do well from the get go.

I guess most people assume the previous generation affects the next generation. Clearly it doesn't. The Gamecube sold terribly. The Wii sold amazingly well. One did not affect the other. And also the Wii's success didn't help the Wii U at all. Likewise the PS2 was the best selling console of all time. The PS3 was a financial failure. Every generation is a huge reset button. Each console has to be evaluated on its own merits instead of basing it on the previous console.



threads like these remind me to just ignore most people and their sales projections



The_Liquid_Laser said:
I am surprised how pessimistic most people were on the Switch. I thought it was pretty obvious that the Switch would do well from the get go.

I guess most people assume the previous generation affects the next generation. Clearly it doesn't. The Gamecube sold terribly. The Wii sold amazingly well. One did not affect the other. And also the Wii's success didn't help the Wii U at all. Likewise the PS2 was the best selling console of all time. The PS3 was a financial failure. Every generation is a huge reset button. Each console has to be evaluated on its own merits instead of basing it on the previous console.

It's not that easy though. Switch and Wii suceeded for completely different reasons. Wii offered new ways to play and offered the games for that. Switch does offer one new way to play: play seamlessly mobile and at home. But the point here is, that the games haven't to be changed for that. Therefore Switch adds value to any game releasing on it, even if it is ported unchanged. That's why old ports and indies do so well, Switch adds value without the game developer anything at all.

But this was not clear from the presentation back then. The hybrid nature was visible, but it wasn't clear it would add so much value to games, you would have to try for yourself. And therefore it wasn't clear that ports would sell that well, and that resulted in big support. That is why Switch has so many games and 3rd-party support that shapes up to be more substantial than what the Wii had. Back then I didn't even calculated with serious 3rd-party support. But the 3rd-party support changes the image. Think how Switch would look, if support was similar to WiiU. Still a great device for Zelda and Mario - but that's it. That makes a big difference.



3DS-FC: 4511-1768-7903 (Mii-Name: Mnementh), Nintendo-Network-ID: Mnementh, Switch: SW-7706-3819-9381 (Mnementh)

my greatest games: 2017, 2018

Predictions: Switch / Switch vs. XB1 in the US / Three Houses first quarter

I’m predicting 85 million LT.

some very low balling people here lol 



0331 Happiness is a belt-fed weapon

70M is still my prediction.