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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Nintendo Switch will sell less than the Wii U...

 

Will it sell less than the Wii U?

Yes. This thing is looking to be a flop 133 17.85%
 
No, but it'll still sell like shit 229 30.74%
 
No, it'll sell very well... 323 43.36%
 
It'll outsell the PS4 an... 60 8.05%
 
Total:745
KLAMarine on 06 January 2018
KLAMarine said:
I'm expecting a slow start.
bunchanumbers said:
I was predicting 40m but that might be generous. Now I'm thinking that it could be 25m at best.
Dr.Vita said:
Let's say that I wouldn't be shocked if this happened. Nintendo proved that they are completely out of touch.
Slarvax said:
I think it wont even outsell the Virtual Boy.
niceguygameplayer said:
barneystinson69 said:

I'm calling it, after all the crap Nintendo pulled off yesterday, I'm calling it. $300 for a console that is weaker than the XB1 and PS4; doesn't have a decent launch lineup (4 games so far?), has overpriced accessories, has only 32GB of storage; demands that you pay for using their "online" service, and the stupid ass gimicks. I mean really, did they think this thing would be a hit? I mean look, 80 3rd party games in development... but we hear nothing about those games. Probably because there is no guarentee they'll even be coming. Just look at what EA did as an example: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=224568&page=7#1

So yeah, "unprecidented" support indeed. And why are you launching this in march if you DON'T HAVE THE GAMES! Look, I expect a strong first month. And then everyone will be so happy because it didn't flop. Then the second month comes, and it'll almost certainly crash down into flames. The only thing saving this thing from this is a 70-80$ price cut, and I just don't see it happening. Nintendo, what have you done...

I agree with nearly everything you said. I predicted poorer sales than Wii U last night. 
ICStats said:
No, but it'll still sell like shit.

It may sell more than Wii U while cannibalizing the 3DS business. Overall Nintendo's revenues will be in ruins.
poroporo said:
I think this thing is underpowered. The difference with the Wii U must be marginal at best (10-15%).

Will not sell well.
thismeintiel said:
barneystinson69 said:

Wgat about the Wii U? It had lots of new features, and the hype surrounding it was insane.

Yea, I don't think Nintendo fans remember how much hype was put into the Wii U pre-launch.  Even suggesting it would flop would bring BIG laughs and the fallback argument of "this is the successor of the successful Wii, but also appeals to tablet gamers, and has 3rd party support."  Hell, even those who thought the Wii U would perform poorly overestimated it.  I think I predicted somwhere between 40 and 60 million for the thing.  Of course, even those numbers were scoffed at.  Turns out it was MUCH worse.  And before the PS4/XBO launched, they were saying console gaming was dead because "if this is how the Wii successor performs, the PS4/XBO don't have a prayer. "

Now, they are using similar style of arguments.  "It's protable."  "It has a new Zelda."  First of all, Zelda has never been a huge franchise.  It sells well, but nowhere near Mario well.  Nor does it push a lot of HW.  And 2nd, portability didn't save the 3DS, which launched at $50 less than the Switch is.  Nintendo had to do a $80 price cut to save it.  Basically the real argument truly is "because its Nintendo."

Having said that, I don't expect it to sell less than the Wii U.  It should at least double it.  Of course, if that's all it does, it's still a VERY bad result for Nintendo, considering this is getting their full attention.  At that point, they might as well start thinking about going either 3rd party or mobile.
VAMatt said:
If they get it down to $250 with a bundled game by holiday 2017, then I think it will be fine. If they keep it at $300 with no game for very long, it will be their last console.
DM235 said:
I agree with the OP. If there is no significant price drop in the first 6 months, this will be a major flop. It is priced too high as a home console, never mind a handheld (you can get a PS4 or XBO with a game for the same price). I expect the PS4 and XBO will also drop in price by $20 to $50 later this year.

Personally, I think the handheld market will continue to shrink as mobile devices get better and better. This year's iPhone 8 will probably be on par performance wise with the WiiU. Mobile games keep getting better and better, and their social media apps are much better.

The Wii U had good games, but that didn't save it.

Nintendo should release the Switch without the Joycon grip and with a pack-in game for $249.99. They should also have a home console only version (with no screen) for $199.99.

Well...



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Valdney on 06 January 2018

I never get tired of this thread!! Hahahahahahahahaha



DevilRising on 06 January 2018

Sorry Barney, but considering the thing already sold over 10 million units in less than a year, no, it will surpass the Wii U before it even gets to Year 3, and will likely do even better than that. It may be under-powered, which is lamentable, but people like it because it's an HD console on the go, with Nintendo franchises, that for once actually seems to also have decent third party support, though we'll see if that sustains.



zorg1000 on 06 January 2018
DevilRising said:
it will surpass the Wii U before it even gets to Year 3

Its probably above Wii U already and its only been out for 10 months.

Wii U shipments ended up at 13.56m

Switch sold 10m with 3 of the biggest weeks of the year left so it could be 13m+ at the end of Dec.

Sales should be close but shipments are most definitely ahead already.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

tsogud on 06 January 2018

Agree with OP for obvious reasons. When will Nintendo learn...



 

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Ultrashroomz on 06 January 2018

Thank god I was one of the very few people who was optimistic for Switch.



"Just for comparison Uncharted 4 was 20x bigger than Splatoon 2. This shows the huge difference between Sony's first-party games and Nintendo's first-party games."

Slarvax on 06 January 2018
KLAMarine said:
Slarvax said:
I think it wont even outsell the Virtual Boy.

Well...



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

VAMatt on 06 January 2018
KLAMarine said:
KLAMarine said:
I'm expecting a slow start.
bunchanumbers said:
I was predicting 40m but that might be generous. Now I'm thinking that it could be 25m at best.
Dr.Vita said:
Let's say that I wouldn't be shocked if this happened. Nintendo proved that they are completely out of touch.
Slarvax said:
I think it wont even outsell the Virtual Boy.
niceguygameplayer said:

I agree with nearly everything you said. I predicted poorer sales than Wii U last night. 
ICStats said:
No, but it'll still sell like shit.

It may sell more than Wii U while cannibalizing the 3DS business. Overall Nintendo's revenues will be in ruins.
poroporo said:
I think this thing is underpowered. The difference with the Wii U must be marginal at best (10-15%).

Will not sell well.
thismeintiel said:

Yea, I don't think Nintendo fans remember how much hype was put into the Wii U pre-launch.  Even suggesting it would flop would bring BIG laughs and the fallback argument of "this is the successor of the successful Wii, but also appeals to tablet gamers, and has 3rd party support."  Hell, even those who thought the Wii U would perform poorly overestimated it.  I think I predicted somwhere between 40 and 60 million for the thing.  Of course, even those numbers were scoffed at.  Turns out it was MUCH worse.  And before the PS4/XBO launched, they were saying console gaming was dead because "if this is how the Wii successor performs, the PS4/XBO don't have a prayer. "

Now, they are using similar style of arguments.  "It's protable."  "It has a new Zelda."  First of all, Zelda has never been a huge franchise.  It sells well, but nowhere near Mario well.  Nor does it push a lot of HW.  And 2nd, portability didn't save the 3DS, which launched at $50 less than the Switch is.  Nintendo had to do a $80 price cut to save it.  Basically the real argument truly is "because its Nintendo."

Having said that, I don't expect it to sell less than the Wii U.  It should at least double it.  Of course, if that's all it does, it's still a VERY bad result for Nintendo, considering this is getting their full attention.  At that point, they might as well start thinking about going either 3rd party or mobile.
VAMatt said:
If they get it down to $250 with a bundled game by holiday 2017, then I think it will be fine. If they keep it at $300 with no game for very long, it will be their last console.
DM235 said:
I agree with the OP. If there is no significant price drop in the first 6 months, this will be a major flop. It is priced too high as a home console, never mind a handheld (you can get a PS4 or XBO with a game for the same price). I expect the PS4 and XBO will also drop in price by $20 to $50 later this year.

Personally, I think the handheld market will continue to shrink as mobile devices get better and better. This year's iPhone 8 will probably be on par performance wise with the WiiU. Mobile games keep getting better and better, and their social media apps are much better.

The Wii U had good games, but that didn't save it.

Nintendo should release the Switch without the Joycon grip and with a pack-in game for $249.99. They should also have a home console only version (with no screen) for $199.99.

Well...

I've accepted responsibility for my terrible prognostication.

 

With that said, I still I think the price is too high. Basically, a parent has to spend $400 to set their child up with a Switch. That's a lot more than any parents are willing to spend. Get that number down to $250 and it becomes a lot more reasonable, for a lot more people. Assuming there's not going to be a 3DS successor, I still think the switch needs to get down in price significantly relatively soon.



Ryng on 11 January 2018
VAMatt said:
KLAMarine said:

Well...

I've accepted responsibility for my terrible prognostication.

 

With that said, I still I think the price is too high. Basically, a parent has to spend $400 to set their child up with a Switch. That's a lot more than any parents are willing to spend. Get that number down to $250 and it becomes a lot more reasonable, for a lot more people. Assuming there's not going to be a 3DS successor, I still think the switch needs to get down in price significantly relatively soon.

Why should they drop the price if they are selling so insane they have problems with the stock?



PortisheadBiscuit on 11 January 2018
Ryng_Tolu said:
VAMatt said:

I've accepted responsibility for my terrible prognostication.

 

With that said, I still I think the price is too high. Basically, a parent has to spend $400 to set their child up with a Switch. That's a lot more than any parents are willing to spend. Get that number down to $250 and it becomes a lot more reasonable, for a lot more people. Assuming there's not going to be a 3DS successor, I still think the switch needs to get down in price significantly relatively soon.

Why should they drop the price if they are selling so insane they have problems with the stock?

Very true. Though I think if they want to hit 20m this year, a price cut or a really good bundle throughout the holidays will do the trick.