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Prediction: PS4 up YOY big time in 2017

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What you think

Agreed, big time year 211 81.47%
 
Nah PS4 sell bad 34 13.13%
 
Scorpio gonna kill PS4 14 5.41%
 
Total:259
Barkley said:
JWeinCom said:
It's rather unlikely that the PS4 will be up YOY. This year saw a hardware revision, price cuts and bundles, a major new peripheral, and an entirely new model. Software lineup for 2017 is more or less similar to 2016. Red Dead is the only thing that's bigger than the stuff they had last year. With all that in mind, sales were essentially flat.

Third Party underperformed this year, Call of Duty, Watch Dogs 2, Titanfall 2... Third Party and First Party is going to be much bigger next year. You say the lineup is going to similair... but what Title did Sony have for Holiday 2016? The Last Guaridan, can't think of any other exclusive and that's certainly not a system seller.

Horizon, Gran Turismo and maybe God of War, along with a cheaper price and the first real deals on Pro consoles and a stronger year for Third Party is going to be the key for increasing YoY in 2017.

You're assuming third parties won't underperform again this year.  When third party titles are falling flat so consistently, it seems indicative of a pattern among that style of games.  It's quite possible that third party games will continue to decline.  Aside from Red Dead 2, which third party games do you expect to provide a big sales boost?

Plus, at this point there is a limited amount that any individual title can do.  The kind of person who is going to be into something like God of War is also the kind of person who would likely be into Uncharted, Infamous, Assassin's Creed and the like.  There may be some people for whom God of War is the straw that breaks the camel's back, but the later any title releases in a console's lifespan, the less impact it's going to have.  



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I think 2017 will be great and better than 2016 for the PS4. Too many great exclusives! Also, the big AAA titles will favor the market leader. There are still millions of undecided buyers, or people still enjoying their PS3. With just Persona 5 and Nier, PS4 this year will be their choice.

Switch is a tablified 3DS. Won't eat the home console pie. Instead, lots of console owners will get it as a second platform, to keep playing Pokemon and enjoy the new Zelda.



JWeinCom said:
It's rather unlikely that the PS4 will be up YOY. This year saw a hardware revision, price cuts and bundles, a major new peripheral, and an entirely new model. Software lineup for 2017 is more or less similar to 2016. Red Dead is the only thing that's bigger than the stuff they had last year. With all that in mind, sales were essentially flat.

Moreover, there's just a point of diminishing returns. The more people that have a PS4, the less people there are to buy one. Unless there is something major, and by major I don't mean a sequel to a game that appeals to their already established market, sales are going to start declining.

To combine that, we have Scorpio and Switch. Scorpio is a pretty direct competitor, especially among people who may be upgrading specifically because they're buying a new 4K TV. Switch isn't as direct of a competitor, but there is still a very sizeable overlap. There are a lot of kids and young teens with a PS4, and a lot of the casual yearly madden types of players who could wind up with a Switch. I can't say for sure whether the Switch will compete in a real way for at least another week, but people who don't think casual appeal is part of the PS4's success are very wrong.

I don't mean to downplay the PS4's success, because it's obviously doing very well, but people are expecting a really unrealistic sales curve. Without a Kinect like situation, there's no reason to think the PS4 will be up at all YOY, and certainly not big time. We've likely seen the peak already.

Why do you mention a peripheral (VR) as a reason PS4 should have done better? it just released in October, it just began its lifecycle. If its gonna sell any consoles it will do it this year or next year lol



Miyamotoo said:
 
 

Netherles, more consoles on market means more console for consumers to choose between, fact is that in 2017. we will have two more consoles than we had in 2016. and offcourse that will have some effect on console market in 2017.

More consoles is only an impact when they sell well enough to compete. I don't think Scorpio will sell more than the X1 S. It won't account for more than 20% of what X1 sells, so it has limited impact. It's a high-end product, it won't sell as well as the cheaper versions. MS would have a larger impact on sales if they cut 50 bucks off the X1 S than by releasing Scorpio. The only thing Scorpio can change is the amount of PS4 Pro sold, which is a minor impact. And even this is pretty hard. X1 is losing 2:1, a new SKU will most likely keep the same ratio.

Switch is a different market. It doesn't have any 3rd party game. People won't be like "Oh, instead of getting a PS4 I will get a Switch. It doesn't have any 3rd party game but that's ok". It's a handheld. It's meant to sell side-by-side. 3DS never had an effect on PS4. PS4 launch didn't changed 3DS numbers. 3DS affected the Vita, because that's the same market.

Pricing is way more related to being up YoY. This year, Sony was pretty much down until the Holidays because they didn't cut the price of the console. A US$ 250 pricing in the Holidays allowed them to be up 8% in that period and 100K units over the year. If they positioned the PS4 Slim in a definitive 250 dollar price point and then cut it to 200 bucks for the Holidays with a bundled game, it would sell gangbusters and keep it up YoY or at least close to 2016 numbers.

It's their call. It may not happen by the same reason it didn't happen this year. They don't care about units sold, but with profit. Someone there probably considered that cutting the price by 50 dollars wouldn't generate a boost big enough to offset the difference. The 300 bucks Slim is BS. It's a redesign, it's cheaper, it can cost the same as the OG unit. They increased the profit margin. I would say that they will at least try to keep the price high. Even if it goes down YoY and sells 16M, it's pure profit. If sales get slow, they will simply cut the price.



I think it will be up Year over Year. The release schedule is very strong this year. It's also reaching peak sales pricing. I expect another price cut before Christmas 2017.



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Depends.This will be the fourth year of the PS4, and its almost at 60 million sales.The ones that were waiting for a game to be release probably already got one PS4, either due to the game already released or will be soon enough.And the PS4 is already cheap enough, especially with the added value its bundles have.More price drops will only soften the blow.And hey, if it still does 14-15 millions this year, it will still be excellent.

Other thing you need to take into account is wether the Switch will be successful or not.If it is, then it could eat up some of the PS4 sales.Because lets face it, if someone didnt buy a PS4 until now, chances are he is the casual of casual gamers.He only buys once every 5 years, and just to play that one game when the console is dirty cheap.If Nintendo grabs that audience, then he is likely to own only one console.But we will see.



Lol guys. Remember when we thought 2014 was going to be huge (+20 million)? And then 2015? And then 2016? What happened?

Oh right, delays. I think it can be up YoY, sure. But it depends on how many games get delayed. For example, I can see RDR2 delayed. Probably GoW. KH3? Etc.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

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PS4 was down outside of Japan.

Japan being up 48% (600K) gives the false impression that PS4 hasn't already peaked.

Slim, Pro, VR, price cuts, poor competition and it still couldn't beat 2015.

Switch will be stealing FIFA and CoD sales next year.

20m isn't happening without VR or a new IP taking off. It'll be closer to 15m.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

Pyro as Bill said:
PS4 was down outside of Japan.

Japan being up 48% (600K) gives the false impression that PS4 hasn't already peaked.

Slim, Pro, VR, price cuts, poor competition and it still couldn't beat 2015.

Switch will be stealing FIFA and CoD sales next year.

20m isn't happening without VR or a new IP taking off. It'll be closer to 15m.

Welcome back, I imagine your stay will be brief as usual, especially when you're already making silly posts like this. Not sure how selling better in Japan means being up globally doesn't count lmao.



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


JWeinCom said:
It's rather unlikely that the PS4 will be up YOY. This year saw a hardware revision, price cuts and bundles, a major new peripheral, and an entirely new model. Software lineup for 2017 is more or less similar to 2016. Red Dead is the only thing that's bigger than the stuff they had last year. With all that in mind, sales were essentially flat.

Moreover, there's just a point of diminishing returns. The more people that have a PS4, the less people there are to buy one. Unless there is something major, and by major I don't mean a sequel to a game that appeals to their already established market, sales are going to start declining.

To combine that, we have Scorpio and Switch. Scorpio is a pretty direct competitor, especially among people who may be upgrading specifically because they're buying a new 4K TV. Switch isn't as direct of a competitor, but there is still a very sizeable overlap. There are a lot of kids and young teens with a PS4, and a lot of the casual yearly madden types of players who could wind up with a Switch. I can't say for sure whether the Switch will compete in a real way for at least another week, but people who don't think casual appeal is part of the PS4's success are very wrong.

I don't mean to downplay the PS4's success, because it's obviously doing very well, but people are expecting a really unrealistic sales curve. Without a Kinect like situation, there's no reason to think the PS4 will be up at all YOY, and certainly not big time. We've likely seen the peak already.

Your logic mean XB1 down YoY in 2017 .