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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS4 up YOY big time in 2017

 

What you think

Agreed, big time year 211 81.47%
 
Nah PS4 sell bad 34 13.13%
 
Scorpio gonna kill PS4 14 5.41%
 
Total:259
Pyro as Bill on 05 January 2017

PS4 was down outside of Japan.

Japan being up 48% (600K) gives the false impression that PS4 hasn't already peaked.

Slim, Pro, VR, price cuts, poor competition and it still couldn't beat 2015.

Switch will be stealing FIFA and CoD sales next year.

20m isn't happening without VR or a new IP taking off. It'll be closer to 15m.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

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Barkley on 05 January 2017
Pyro as Bill said:
PS4 was down outside of Japan.

Japan being up 48% (600K) gives the false impression that PS4 hasn't already peaked.

Slim, Pro, VR, price cuts, poor competition and it still couldn't beat 2015.

Switch will be stealing FIFA and CoD sales next year.

20m isn't happening without VR or a new IP taking off. It'll be closer to 15m.

Welcome back, I imagine your stay will be brief as usual, especially when you're already making silly posts like this. Not sure how selling better in Japan means being up globally doesn't count lmao.



Oneeee-Chan!!! on 05 January 2017
JWeinCom said:
It's rather unlikely that the PS4 will be up YOY. This year saw a hardware revision, price cuts and bundles, a major new peripheral, and an entirely new model. Software lineup for 2017 is more or less similar to 2016. Red Dead is the only thing that's bigger than the stuff they had last year. With all that in mind, sales were essentially flat.

Moreover, there's just a point of diminishing returns. The more people that have a PS4, the less people there are to buy one. Unless there is something major, and by major I don't mean a sequel to a game that appeals to their already established market, sales are going to start declining.

To combine that, we have Scorpio and Switch. Scorpio is a pretty direct competitor, especially among people who may be upgrading specifically because they're buying a new 4K TV. Switch isn't as direct of a competitor, but there is still a very sizeable overlap. There are a lot of kids and young teens with a PS4, and a lot of the casual yearly madden types of players who could wind up with a Switch. I can't say for sure whether the Switch will compete in a real way for at least another week, but people who don't think casual appeal is part of the PS4's success are very wrong.

I don't mean to downplay the PS4's success, because it's obviously doing very well, but people are expecting a really unrealistic sales curve. Without a Kinect like situation, there's no reason to think the PS4 will be up at all YOY, and certainly not big time. We've likely seen the peak already.

Your logic mean XB1 down YoY in 2017 . 



vizigoth on 05 January 2017
bunchanumbers said:
Almost everything you listed was multiplat. How is this supposed to sell more PS4s?

Because most of the multiplats sold better on PS4 than XBOX One in 2016. This should be the same at least until Scorpio comes out. I would only assume Microsoft is going to make Scorpio highly backwards compatible. On that note, if that happens they will probably reveal that feature closer to launch so users don't lack the incentive to invest into an XBOX One /One S. 



Miyamotoo on 05 January 2017
torok said:
Miyamotoo said:

Netherles, more consoles on market means more console for consumers to choose between, fact is that in 2017. we will have two more consoles than we had in 2016. and offcourse that will have some effect on console market in 2017.

More consoles is only an impact when they sell well enough to compete. I don't think Scorpio will sell more than the X1 S. It won't account for more than 20% of what X1 sells, so it has limited impact. It's a high-end product, it won't sell as well as the cheaper versions. MS would have a larger impact on sales if they cut 50 bucks off the X1 S than by releasing Scorpio. The only thing Scorpio can change is the amount of PS4 Pro sold, which is a minor impact. And even this is pretty hard. X1 is losing 2:1, a new SKU will most likely keep the same ratio.

Switch is a different market. It doesn't have any 3rd party game. People won't be like "Oh, instead of getting a PS4 I will get a Switch. It doesn't have any 3rd party game but that's ok". It's a handheld. It's meant to sell side-by-side. 3DS never had an effect on PS4. PS4 launch didn't changed 3DS numbers. 3DS affected the Vita, because that's the same market.

Pricing is way more related to being up YoY. This year, Sony was pretty much down until the Holidays because they didn't cut the price of the console. A US$ 250 pricing in the Holidays allowed them to be up 8% in that period and 100K units over the year. If they positioned the PS4 Slim in a definitive 250 dollar price point and then cut it to 200 bucks for the Holidays with a bundled game, it would sell gangbusters and keep it up YoY or at least close to 2016 numbers.

It's their call. It may not happen by the same reason it didn't happen this year. They don't care about units sold, but with profit. Someone there probably considered that cutting the price by 50 dollars wouldn't generate a boost big enough to offset the difference. The 300 bucks Slim is BS. It's a redesign, it's cheaper, it can cost the same as the OG unit. They increased the profit margin. I would say that they will at least try to keep the price high. Even if it goes down YoY and sells 16M, it's pure profit. If sales get slow, they will simply cut the price.

Even those small numbers can effect that PS4 in 2017. don't go YoY. Switch will definitely attract some casuals that maybe would buy PS4 instead. 3DS was just handheld, Switch is home console also, Switch is aiming home console and handheld market in same time.

Like I wrote, more consoles on market means more console for consumers to choose between, fact is that in 2017. we will have two more consoles than we had in 2016. and of course that will have some effect on console market in 2017, and definitely in 2017. for PS4 will be harder to sell more than it sold in 2016 because of that.



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Mummelmann on 05 January 2017

I don't think it will, if lower price, Slim and Pro and the likes of MGS and Uncharted and Final Fantasy didn't help it beat 2015 by a significant margin, there's no secret sauce waiting in 2017 that will drive a similar increase.
It seems that my insistence that a 20 million selling calendar year for the PS4 will be quite difficult to achieve after all, and I still hold to it not beating the PS1 in lifetime sales.

I think the PS4 will be either more or less flat, or even slightly down yoy in 2017, from where I'm sitting, I can't see any major reasons to think it will grow. Besides; the yoy increase for 2016 is easily well within the margin of error, meaning that it can possibly even be down yoy.

 

Edit; wow, my year end hardware predictions were pretty good for 2016!



Kerotan on 05 January 2017
Pyro as Bill said:
PS4 was down outside of Japan.

Japan being up 48% (600K) gives the false impression that PS4 hasn't already peaked.

Slim, Pro, VR, price cuts, poor competition and it still couldn't beat 2015.

Switch will be stealing FIFA and CoD sales next year.

20m isn't happening without VR or a new IP taking off. It'll be closer to 15m.

Yay Japan is relevant again xD



JWeinCom on 05 January 2017
bluedawgs said:
JWeinCom said:
It's rather unlikely that the PS4 will be up YOY. This year saw a hardware revision, price cuts and bundles, a major new peripheral, and an entirely new model. Software lineup for 2017 is more or less similar to 2016. Red Dead is the only thing that's bigger than the stuff they had last year. With all that in mind, sales were essentially flat.

Moreover, there's just a point of diminishing returns. The more people that have a PS4, the less people there are to buy one. Unless there is something major, and by major I don't mean a sequel to a game that appeals to their already established market, sales are going to start declining.

To combine that, we have Scorpio and Switch. Scorpio is a pretty direct competitor, especially among people who may be upgrading specifically because they're buying a new 4K TV. Switch isn't as direct of a competitor, but there is still a very sizeable overlap. There are a lot of kids and young teens with a PS4, and a lot of the casual yearly madden types of players who could wind up with a Switch. I can't say for sure whether the Switch will compete in a real way for at least another week, but people who don't think casual appeal is part of the PS4's success are very wrong.

I don't mean to downplay the PS4's success, because it's obviously doing very well, but people are expecting a really unrealistic sales curve. Without a Kinect like situation, there's no reason to think the PS4 will be up at all YOY, and certainly not big time. We've likely seen the peak already.

Why do you mention a peripheral (VR) as a reason PS4 should have done better? it just released in October, it just began its lifecycle. If its gonna sell any consoles it will do it this year or next year lol

Kinect released in early november and pushed XBox 360 sales up by 33% that year.  If it was going to be a major seller, we should have seen some effect this year.  

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
JWeinCom said:
It's rather unlikely that the PS4 will be up YOY. This year saw a hardware revision, price cuts and bundles, a major new peripheral, and an entirely new model. Software lineup for 2017 is more or less similar to 2016. Red Dead is the only thing that's bigger than the stuff they had last year. With all that in mind, sales were essentially flat.

Moreover, there's just a point of diminishing returns. The more people that have a PS4, the less people there are to buy one. Unless there is something major, and by major I don't mean a sequel to a game that appeals to their already established market, sales are going to start declining.

To combine that, we have Scorpio and Switch. Scorpio is a pretty direct competitor, especially among people who may be upgrading specifically because they're buying a new 4K TV. Switch isn't as direct of a competitor, but there is still a very sizeable overlap. There are a lot of kids and young teens with a PS4, and a lot of the casual yearly madden types of players who could wind up with a Switch. I can't say for sure whether the Switch will compete in a real way for at least another week, but people who don't think casual appeal is part of the PS4's success are very wrong.

I don't mean to downplay the PS4's success, because it's obviously doing very well, but people are expecting a really unrealistic sales curve. Without a Kinect like situation, there's no reason to think the PS4 will be up at all YOY, and certainly not big time. We've likely seen the peak already.

Your logic mean XB1 down YoY in 2017 . 


No, not really.  We know less about the Scorpio and how it will perform or be marketed.  Depending on how the Scorpio is, it may be a better upgrade choice for the expanding 4K market.  There is the potential for Hololens in 2017.  Also, the XBox One install base is about half the PS4's, which means more potential customers.

Most importantly though, XBox doesn't have to sell nearly as much to be up YOY.  It will only have to sell about 10 million or so to accomplish that, and Sony will have to nearly double it.  Microsoft just has to eat away a bit at Sony's marketshare, while Sony really has to expand their market.  

All that being said, I think that XBox will be down YOY, but it has more of a chance to be up.



Train wreck on 05 January 2017

The only thing that can prevent the PS4 from being up YOY is the PS4 itself. As long as the game library is there and there is an attractive new price it'll be fine (flat or +yoy) for 2017. It's a GT year so that should up the baseline in Europe, I think its more of a system seller than Uncharted.



KingofTrolls on 05 January 2017

- finally we will see what PS4 Pro and VR is capable of. Poor, forced patches after release of final game's code are nothing compared to proper developing with PRO version in mind. Also, we will see ( finally ) games on new engines, bye bye PS360 shit.
- good amount of 1st party titles, it will give PS4 a lot of positive drive in media. internetz etc.
- Nintendo has left home console gaming, they have kinda switched their agendas
- god tier killer aps like Mass Effect, RDR,+ exclusive marketing rights - its pathetic, but I think it will be the biggest positive factor for sales ( and NO. FFXV is 0 compared to RDR/ME and u all know this )

- Scorpio will launch simply 2late to do anything

TLDR - time will tell, we have to wait and see