53.4 million as of the start of 2017, I believe it will be at around 70 million lifetime by the end of 2017, that means it needs another 40 million to beat the PS1. And, no, I don't think it will, the decline after new hardware releases will likely be savage and quick.

Roughly 16.6-17 million sales in 2017 equals ~~70 million lifetime. Another 14-15 million in 2018, followed by 11-12 million in 2019 and 6-7 million in 2020 (figuring that the PS5 launches in late 2019).

That's below the 110 million or so of the PS1, by some margin. 100 million is quite realistic, 110 million not quite so much, from where I'm sitting at least. But, what do I know, maybe my chair is broken.

I will also add that I've predicted the PS4 year end lifetime sales within a margin of about 500k these past two years (400k off in 2015, overshot, and 600 over in 2016, overshot), so my guesses are seemingly better than average at least.

Care to tell me how the PS4 will reach 110 million sales lifetime then? Also; thread title clearly states "up yoy big time", which means a large increase, something has to drive this and there's really nothing I can see on the horizon to produce this growth. The best they can hope for is to remain more less flat, in my opinion. Time will tell who has it right, but my stance at least has some pretty decent trends and data to go by.

53.4 million as of the start of 2017, I believe it will be at around 70 million lifetime by the end of 2017, that means it needs another 40 million to beat the PS1. And, no, I don't think it will, the decline after new hardware releases will likely be savage and quick.

Roughly 16.6-17 million sales in 2017 equals ~~70 million lifetime. Another 14-15 million in 2018, followed by 11-12 million in 2019 and 6-7 million in 2020 (figuring that the PS5 launches in late 2019).

That's below the 110 million or so of the PS1, by some margin. 100 million is quite realistic, 110 million not quite so much, from where I'm sitting at least. But, what do I know, maybe my chair is broken.

I will also add that I've predicted the PS4 year end lifetime sales within a margin of about 500k these past two years (400k off in 2015, overshot, and 600 over in 2016, overshot), so my guesses are seemingly better than average at least.

Care to tell me how the PS4 will reach 110 million sales lifetime then? Also; thread title clearly states "up yoy big time", which means a large increase, something has to drive this and there's really nothing I can see on the horizon to produce this growth. The best they can hope for is to remain more less flat, in my opinion. Time will tell who has it right, but my stance at least has some pretty decent trends and data to go by.

lol after this year it will only need to sell around 30 million units to pass ps1 and you're expecting it to not do that, so i don't know what you think dropping like a rock looks like, but not being able to sell 30 million more units, ever, after this year is what dropping like a rock looks like to me

I made this thread, i stated why i think it will be up a lot year on year in the first post of this thread but i guess i can throw some reasons out there again. Big software, much bigger than 2016 (if you want to argue against that, fine, but most people will disagree) and a price cut for both the slim and the pro. Also the Playstation sold 102.5 million units, not 110 million, and since i predicted 20 million for PS4 this year, which means it will be at 73.4 million at least by the end of 2017, it will have to sell less than 29 million for the rest of its life to not outsell the PS1, if we go by your 16.5 million prediction and PS4 being at 70 million by the end of 2017 then it needs to sell 32.5 million or more to outsell PS1 

also i don't know what trends you're talking about either, it went up year on year for the third consecutive year, and the software being much more attractive and plentiful this year compared to last year is so obvious that it actually stings when you and other people don't acknowledge it, also i'm under the impression that ps4 will sell for $199 at some point this year which is an extremely attractive price point

I made this thread, i stated why i think it will be up a lot year on year in the first post of this thread but i guess i can throw some reasons out there again. Big software, much bigger than 2016 (if you want to argue against that, fine, but most people will disagree) and a price cut for both the slim and the pro. Also the Playstation sold 102.5 million units, not 110 million, and since i predicted 20 million for PS4 this year, which means it will be at 73.4 million at least by the end of 2017, it will have to sell less than 29 million for the rest of its life to not outsell the PS1, if we go by your 16.5 million prediction and PS4 being at 70 million by the end of 2017 then it needs to sell 32.5 million or more to outsell PS1 

also i don't know what trends you're talking about either, it went up year on year for the third consecutive year, and the software being much more attractive and plentiful this year compared to last year is so obvious that it actually stings when you and other people don't acknowledge it, also i'm under the impression that ps4 will sell for $199 at some point this year which is an extremely attractive price point

Mario Kart 8 did well enough.

I think they just have to make them less sim like.

They're the same factors I mentioned just a bit ago.  Systems just don't spike in sales 4 years after their debut.  The only system to grow since and including the PS2 in its fourth year was the PS3.  That was a small growth (7% and less than a million in absolute number) and that was a system with a much lower start.  And, the PS3 was on the upswing, having risen 24% the year before, while the PS4 is basically stagnant.

The only time we've seen a big increase in a system's sale after the fourth year was the XBox 360 in its fifth year, and that was due entirely to the Kinect's success.

The point is, if sales are going to rise, there has to be some extraordinary reason.  Price cuts aren't anything new, so that doesn't seem like it could be a reason, even if Sony could drop the price, which they may not do (especially for the Pro, unless Scorpio comes in very cheap).

As for the games lineup, even if I granted that it was a lot better than 2016 (which I'm not sure it is) it's not so crazy amazing that it should cause the PS4 to defy all industry expectation.  We can compare it to the PS3 lineup.  The PS3 had Mass Effect 2, Red Dead Redemption, God of War, Gran Turismo 5, Heavy Rain, Black Ops, Bad Company 2, Assassin's Creed Brotherhood, Sports Champions, and so on.  Actually, a fairly similar list, but probably a bit stronger since the franchises were fresher, especially COD and Assassin's Creed.  

The situation the PS4 is in is not unusual, but you're expecting an unusual result.