I think people are overestimating GT at this point, the series has been getting a lot of flack from fans for being behind on tech, not fixing audio, using really dated models, removing content, poor multiplayer etc. Metascore has fallen with each installment and sales have gone down ever since GT3, to the point where GT6 is set to sell about 1/4 of GT3, on about 60-65% of the installed base, the series has clearly lost traction. The sales down from GT5 are more than halved as well, this is extremely telling of the waning relevance of the series.

Meanwhile, Uncharted has remained in the 90's on metacritic, with UC4 beating UC3 (93 vs 92) and sales of the series has been steadily climbing, to the point where UC4 has officially beat UC3's sales by about 2 million already, on a significantly smaller installed base at that. The Uncharted series has been steadily growing and has also kept its favor with fans and critics alike.

In other words; it's very, very unlikely that GT is a bigger system seller than UC, or that it's even close to as relevant today as the UC series. Discounting GT, what else will help increase sales in 2017? Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Uncharted, PSVR, Slim, Pro and price cuts didn't help make 2016 as fantastic as many thought, I was considered partly insane for my "conservative" year end prediction and my refusal to "accept" that the PS4 would sell 20 million or more for the CY.

Like I said in another post; there's no secret sauce that will suddenly kickstart PS4 sales and drive them higher, most, if not all, signs point towards either more or less flat or slightly down yoy. If it drops, which it well might, I don't think it'll be a huge drop, perhaps in the 5-7% range or so. There's really no logical reason to think that the PS4 will sell more in 2017 at this point, let's not forget that it has had some really paltry competition and still failed to meet many expectations people have in here. If it hasn't flexed its muscles and showed signs of being a 20 million + a year console, it won't suddenly become that in its 4th year on the market, it appears to have flipped the PS3's curve and gone for a good start with an early but smaller decline, whereas the PS3 started slow and then basically grew for 6 years straight. For some perspective; the PS4's best year so far is only about 15-20% better than the PS3's peak year.

Eh, GT6 isn't the best indication of a serious decline (mainly due to when it released). The sales of everything after GT3 is also a little fickle, because while GT4 sold less than it, GT5 outsold GT4. On top of that, GT3 is the worst one to use as it was bundled far beyond any of the other releases (hence the spike).

GT Sport isn't a mainline release (though I agree that its launch and LTD is critical for the series). It'll be the first GT released this gen, so that will be the best time to start judging where the series could be headed.

In terms of GT's selling power, there could be some overestimating going on, but because of series' like The Last Of Us and Uncharted, Sony no longer has just one mega series like that. So GT doesn't need to pack quite the punch of past generations.

There was no effective $50 price drop for VR or the Pro. The only 'deal' I saw involved using a target red card (in store credit card) and they also discounted nearly the entire store one day after Black Friday. Pro and VR were part of this (like I said, store wide promotion) but neither were advertised at the discounted prices nor was it common knowledge where and how to get them for cheaper than msrp. There was no "effective" price drop for either 

I'm not actually arguing, at this current moment, that PSVR is going to sell a bunch of PS4's. I just saw that you mentioned PSVR when talking about PS4 barely being up year on year and i think a product that expensive, that also is completely new and not super available won't start selling really well until this year or next year

edit: also i mentioned the price cut a few times now, its pretty important, especially when you take into account that PS4 actually sold for $350 for 8 months in 2016 and got a shockingly bad $50 price cut with the slim. It was up 500k year on year (6.2 million in 2016 vs 5.7 million in 2015) with the $250 deal in the holidays with at least 400k less sales in the United States in November 2016 compared to 2015 (we still don't have december numbers but if its down by a few hundered thousand units in the United States than sales are being made up for big time somewhere else)

All GTs are bundled to some extent, but not the extent of GT3. 

As for selling power vs Uncharted - in the States, yes, Uncharted is stronger. But, in EU, that remains to be seen, though I'm going to give GT the edge here. Of course, that all depends on where Uncharted rests out there vs GT Sport. That 8.7m with much, much more time left to go is telling. But, as it stands, Uncharted is on its way to being one of three GT-like franchises for Sony.

I think people are overestimating GT at this point, the series has been getting a lot of flack from fans for being behind on tech, not fixing audio, using really dated models, removing content, poor multiplayer etc. Metascore has fallen with each installment and sales have gone down ever since GT3, to the point where GT6 is set to sell about 1/4 of GT3, on about 60-65% of the installed base, the series has clearly lost traction. The sales down from GT5 are more than halved as well, this is extremely telling of the waning relevance of the series.

Meanwhile, Uncharted has remained in the 90's on metacritic, with UC4 beating UC3 (93 vs 92) and sales of the series has been steadily climbing, to the point where UC4 has officially beat UC3's sales by about 2 million already, on a significantly smaller installed base at that. The Uncharted series has been steadily growing and has also kept its favor with fans and critics alike.

In other words; it's very, very unlikely that GT is a bigger system seller than UC, or that it's even close to as relevant today as the UC series. Discounting GT, what else will help increase sales in 2017? Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Uncharted, PSVR, Slim, Pro and price cuts didn't help make 2016 as fantastic as many thought, I was considered partly insane for my "conservative" year end prediction and my refusal to "accept" that the PS4 would sell 20 million or more for the CY.

Like I said in another post; there's no secret sauce that will suddenly kickstart PS4 sales and drive them higher, most, if not all, signs point towards either more or less flat or slightly down yoy. If it drops, which it well might, I don't think it'll be a huge drop, perhaps in the 5-7% range or so. There's really no logical reason to think that the PS4 will sell more in 2017 at this point, let's not forget that it has had some really paltry competition and still failed to meet many expectations people have in here. If it hasn't flexed its muscles and showed signs of being a 20 million + a year console, it won't suddenly become that in its 4th year on the market, it appears to have flipped the PS3's curve and gone for a good start with an early but smaller decline, whereas the PS3 started slow and then basically grew for 6 years straight. For some perspective; the PS4's best year so far is only about 15-20% better than the PS3's peak year.

I agree, the PS4 won't break that 20m barrier for a single calendar year. The system's surrounding variables match up with those of many previous winning systems (the competition is beaten, third parties have put their full weight behind the console), so a peak in year 2-3 followed by a soft decline is the most probable sales trajectory. Beyond year 3 for such a system, about the only things that can lead to an uptick in sales are a revision (the PS4 already got it in 2016) or a new IP that becomes a breakout hit.

If we break down PS4 sales by region, 2016 was already a decline from 2015 outside of Japan which was the only region where PS4 sales were up year over year. At this point the curve is pointing downwards in most of the world.

I agree, the PS4 won't break that 20m barrier for a single calendar year. The system's surrounding variables match up with those of many previous winning systems (the competition is beaten, third parties have put their full weight behind the console), so a peak in year 2-3 followed by a soft decline is the most probable sales trajectory. Beyond year 3 for such a system, about the only things that can lead to an uptick in sales are a revision (the PS4 already got it in 2016) or a new IP that becomes a breakout hit.

If we break down PS4 sales by region, 2016 was already a decline from 2015 outside of Japan which was the only region where PS4 sales were up year over year. At this point the curve is pointing downwards in most of the world.

Last part is really interesting, I don't know how many times I've gotten into arguments with folks dubbing the PS4 "the next PS2". The PS2 was the culmination of perfect conditions for home consoles in almost every possible way and it was obvious that its success wouldn't be replicated any time soon.

I wrote about hardware revisions in the UNITY thread, there's no doubt the market has changed, it's more fast-paced and consumption driven, and with more and more non-gaming functionality on static devices like consoles, they're forced to follow more dynamic devices in their approach to updates on both hardrware and software. Even the business models for software sales and partitioned games are taking cues from the smartphone segment, with micotransactions and purchase of in-game content having grown huge since 2009-2010. Gone are the days where a game is developer for a couple of years, released and then patched a couple of times to remove kinks, now you buy in bits as you go, DLC and add-on's are absolutely everywhere.

I think the PS4 will be slightly down yoy in 2017, I can't really see much else happening at this point. Price cuts help short term (even the Wii U got a quick burst from a price cut), but if the pent up demand isn't there, consoles won't fly off the shelves even with a sizable price cut. All in all, consoles simply don't have anywhere near the same perceived value in the 8th gen as they did in the two previous generations and the audience is scattered across several segments and niches now.

PS: Do you think the PS4 can beat the PS1 in lifetime sales at this rate?

That's actually not true. According to Famitsu, the PS4 was up YOY by ~590K sales. Media Create has it up YOY by ~450K sales with a week to go. In the US, the PS4 was down YOY by ~630K as of November. Assuming that the PS4 exhibited a similar YOY decrease in December as November, the PS4 would be down YOY by ~1.08 million for 2016. That is significantly larger than the YOY increase from either Famistu or Media Create and then, you have to consider the extra 100K from the YOY WW increase.

Last part is really interesting, I don't know how many times I've gotten into arguments with folks dubbing the PS4 "the next PS2". The PS2 was the culmination of perfect conditions for home consoles in almost every possible way and it was obvious that its success wouldn't be replicated any time soon.

I wrote about hardware revisions in the UNITY thread, there's no doubt the market has changed, it's more fast-paced and consumption driven, and with more and more non-gaming functionality on static devices like consoles, they're forced to follow more dynamic devices in their approach to updates on both hardrware and software. Even the business models for software sales and partitioned games are taking cues from the smartphone segment, with micotransactions and purchase of in-game content having grown huge since 2009-2010. Gone are the days where a game is developer for a couple of years, released and then patched a couple of times to remove kinks, now you buy in bits as you go, DLC and add-on's are absolutely everywhere.

I think the PS4 will be slightly down yoy in 2017, I can't really see much else happening at this point. Price cuts help short term (even the Wii U got a quick burst from a price cut), but if the pent up demand isn't there, consoles won't fly off the shelves even with a sizable price cut. All in all, consoles simply don't have anywhere near the same perceived value in the 8th gen as they did in the two previous generations and the audience is scattered across several segments and niches now.

PS: Do you think the PS4 can beat the PS1 in lifetime sales at this rate?