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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: PS4 up YOY big time in 2017

 

What you think

Agreed, big time year 211 81.47%
 
Nah PS4 sell bad 34 13.13%
 
Scorpio gonna kill PS4 14 5.41%
 
Total:259

PS4's 2016 sales are very, very good. It sold 17.5 million, up 100k from 2015. This isn't a tremendous increase by any means, but I think the reasons for that are pretty obvious if you think about it. The software wasn't nearly as big as last years in terms of raw selling power.

2015: Black Ops 3 (this was huge), Fallout 4 (also huge), and Battlefront (also huge)

2016: Watch Dogs 2, Dishonored 2, Infinite Warfare which was a flop for a call of duty game especially compared to the massive Black Ops 3

 I also think the huge gap from early August when the slim leaked to the release in September for the slim, and the gap from early September to November 10th for the Pro along with PSVR launching in October hurt PS4 sales due to the amount of expensive releases in such a short period. Now prediction for a big PS4 YOY increase this year boils down to two obvious points

Price cut, again. $199 will be reached, impulse buy territory 

Big software this year, and in massive amounts

The biggest ones, amongst a shit ton of other games that will be great, go as follows

Red Dead Redemption 2 (this will sell a lot of PS4s)

Destiny 2 is coming

Battlefront 2 is releasing this year

New Call of Duty

By the way, i'm expecting a tremendous year for PS4 in Japan. I think it has a chance of going up YOY there because i'm sensing a very strong start for the PS4 in the beginning of the year because there is a lot of good looking and popular games releasing in Japan, such as Resident Evil, Gravity Rush (i know it wont do anything but it will contribute to some PS4 purchases), Ni-oh, Nier and Dragon Quest XI baby. Also i'm expecting a solid price cut for both the slim and the pro, and the slim is quite popular in japan it seems

For my numbers

PS4 Worldwide 2017: 20 million



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I think BF2 will face the same fate as WD2 and TF2. The first one died quick and got lots of hate so im expecting a big drop from that. Im hoping COD is modern again so it should sell good. Red Dead Destimy and Mass Effect will help the PS4 but this time there is no new hardware and no exclusive as big as uncharted unless GT Sport sells like a mainline GT game. I expect PS4 to be flat but i can definitely see it being up. Good thread.



jason1637 said:
I think BF2 will face the same fate as WD2 and TF2. The first one died quick and got lots of hate so im expecting a big drop from that. Im hoping COD is modern again so it should sell good. Red Dead Destimy and Mass Effect will help the PS4 but this time there is no new hardware and no exclusive as big as uncharted unless GT Sport sells like a mainline GT game. I expect PS4 to be flat but i can definitely see it being up. Good thread.

I could see Battlefront 2 not doing too hot yeah. I forgot about Mass Effect as well, it wont push that many consoles but I'm sure it'll get a decent amount of people to buy a PS4 for it. I think Horizon, if it meets expectations, will sell a lot of PS4s too. Thanks



jason1637 said:
I think BF2 will face the same fate as WD2 and TF2.


I agree with that!

OP, Horizon will be a huge hit. It's got the hype and Sony will probably have a good marketing budget behind it.



I can the ps4 outselling the xbox one by 10 million units next year



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Im less optimistic... I think it ll be up YOY in 2017, but not by that much.

I think it ll be over 18m though... the question is by how much?



I think they would need a new GTA next year to see a large uptick in sales but you're right $249.99 price drop with $199.99 Black Friday/December pricing could certainly help big time.

The scary thing about this gen is there so far has not been a real big breakthrough new franchise that drives hardware sales.

To be honest it's not like Sony *needs* a large uptick in sales. There's nothing wrong at all in selling 20 million of any kind of game hardware any year.

Nintendo or MS would kill for 20 mill in a year right about now. 



Soundwave said:

I think they would need a new GTA next year to see a large uptick in sales but you're right $249.99 price drop with $199.99 Black Friday/December pricing could certainly help big time.

The scary thing about this gen is there so far has not been a real big breakthrough new franchise that drives hardware sales.

To be honest it's not like Sony *needs* a large uptick in sales. There's nothing wrong at all in selling 20 million of any kind of game hardware any year.

Nintendo or MS would kill for 20 mill in a year right about now. 

I think Destiny is that new franchise that moves a shit ton of hardware, it moved a lot back in 2014, Destiny 2 performance will be importnant



Soundwave said:

I think they would need a new GTA next year to see a large uptick in sales but you're right $249.99 price drop with $199.99 Black Friday/December pricing could certainly help big time.

The scary thing about this gen is there so far has not been a real big breakthrough new franchise that drives hardware sales.

To be honest it's not like Sony *needs* a large uptick in sales. There's nothing wrong at all in selling 20 million of any kind of game hardware any year.

Nintendo or MS would kill for 20 mill in a year right about now. 

^ this.

53.4m

+ about 18.5m next year = 72m units in 4 years.

Thats not bad.

Playstation 5, probably wont come until end of 2019 at earliest..... by which time the PS4 will be over 100m.



So the thing had it's biggest exclusive franchise launch .... (Which sold 8.7 million copies to date so far). The most hyped FF game in history( which sold 5 million copies to date so far), the last fucking guardian, the biggest battlefield game since BF 4..... A slim version, with a bulked up pro version, prices as low as $225 in some places..... And the thing still barely sold 100k more over last year....

You expect an increase this year? With Nintendo launching a new console, and Microsoft taking the lead in hardware specs this gen? I'm very doubtful, unless Sony drop the slim to $199 and have the pro at $299 when the Scorpio launches at 399 or 449.....



 

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