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Forums - Politics Discussion - Trump's New Years Message

Shadow1980 said:

Nations with full presidential systems are commonplace in the Americas, perhaps due to the American system having a strong influence in Latin America. Of those nations with a full presidential system, five have a federal system: the U.S., Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and Venezuela. Of those, only the U.S. elects their president indirectly. Mexico and Venezuela use a FPTP system, while Brazil and Argentina use a two-round runoff system. Brazil and Argentina did have electoral colleges of their own, but have abandoned them. No unitary presidential republic has an electoral college, either, but federalism is by definition a non-issue in those nations, but it's worth pointing them out to illustrate how unique our system of indirect election for head of state is. The idea that an electoral college is a necessary component of federations with full presidential systems is without basis. Just because the U.S. is a federation doesn't mean an electoral college is either necessary or desirable.

The electoral college is necessary in OUR system and that's what matters most ...  

What other countries do is none of our business to follow their examples, the electoral college serves as a mediator between the executive powers and the states ... 

Shadow1980 said:

Why do voters in less populous states deserve to have their votes count for more than those in less more populous states? Why is "one person, one vote" such an odious concept to some when it comes to selecting the President?

Because many of the founding fathers feared tyranny of the majority. It's not hard to see that precedent, now is it ? Even Alexander Hamilton who shared your worries that one day a demagogue maybe elected believed that a mandate through popular support would silence the voices of the minorities and today those minorities are rural America ... 

Hillary Clinton is just as much of a demagogue as Trump is for creating these echo chambers by constantly promoting bullying towards Trump supporters. Seriously how can you overlook that with her when much of her base will unconditionally shame them without so much as to even trying to see their point of view ? 

Trump will play on his base's fear of minorities and illegal aliens and Clinton will play to her base's fear by endlessly villifying Trump supporters and Russia ... 

Why on earth should there be "one person, one vote" when the samller groups aren't going to be offered the same security in their visions ? 

Shadow1980 said:


Again, in a direct popular vote system, presidential candidates are not winning states. They are winning individual voters only. States are a non-issue. In 2016, California accounted for only 10.35% of the popular vote and 10.22% of the electoral vote, while New York represented 5.6% of the popular vote and 5.4% of the electoral vote. The relative voting power of people in big states would not change much with a direct election. Hillary voters in those states accounted for only 9.7% of all votes cast nationwide. The idea that only big states would matter does not stand up to scrutiny. Neither does the idea that only big cities matter.

2010 Census data shows over 19% of Americans live in areas defined as "rural," and 2016 exit polls showed 17% of voters were from rural areas. 17% of 137 million votes cast is 23.3M votes, hardly a trivial amount. In a tight election, candidates will be fighting over every last vote possible. Kennedy beat Nixon by 113k votes/0.17 percentage points, less than the number of people who voted in Wyoming that year. Gore and Bush were separated by only 0.5 points in the popular vote in 2000, and four years later Bush beat Kerry in the popular vote by 2.4 points despite getting destroyed in highly urbanized large states like California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Washington, and Massachusetts.

In a national popular vote system, the 4+ million Californians who vote Republican for president would have their votes actually count. As it stands, they may as well not show up at the polls in solid blue states. As far as the Electoral College is concerned, Republicans in heavily Democratic states like California do not exist. Same for Democrats living in solid red states like Idaho or Alabama. Their votes mean nothing in our current system. Currently, only a narrow slice of swing voters living in about a dozen swing states are the only voters that really matter to presidential candidates. With a national popular vote, every vote really would count. More Republicans in blue states and Democrats in red states would likely turn out instead of sitting on their butts on election day thinking their votes are wasted.

Depends on what you mean by "actually count" because with FPTP even in a tight race all it takes is a few thousand votes to invalidate all other options ... 

So even if the electoral college will persist that Republicans do not exist in California it also means that the loser doesn't matter in the race regardless so in this case it means that democrats do NOT matter at all in the end of the 2016 general election ... 

Shadow1980 said:


The idea that the 50 states are sovereign nations in their own right doesn't hold up, either. We're starting to go off-topic from the subject of the EC (which was admittedly off-topic for this thread, but whatever), but since you brought it up.

In nations with a federal system, the subnational units (usually called "states," but sometimes by other names) enjoy a wide degree of autonomy and possess certain powers that cannot be unilaterally rescinded by the national government. This is distinct from unitary states where the subnational units have no real autonomy and only possess whatever powers the national government delegates to them. Federations typically are geographically large and/or have a history of being a collection of distinct, usually sovereign entities that combined to form a singular nation-state. However, the states" of the U.S. and other federations are not true sovereign states in their own right since they cannot engage in activities that define such entities.

"
Article One of the U.S. Constitution prohibits the states from, among other things, engaging in foreign policy with other nations, declaring war against other nations, creating their own currency, raising their own militaries, or laying imposts and duties on imports & exports. The Constitution also gives Congress the exclusive right to set uniform rules of naturalization, and the Privileges and Immunities Clause has also been repeatedly interpreted as allowing freedom of movement between states, which nominally prevents state governments from setting up interstate "immigration" laws to regulate or prevent the passage of people from one state into theirs.

There is a reason why California, Texas, New York, Ontario, British Columbia, New South Wales, Tasmania, Saxony, Bavaria, Chihuahua, Sonora, Leningrad oblast, Tocantins, the state of Sao Paulo, and every other federated state are not recognized by any nation on Earth as nations in their own right, why none of them have their own seats at the UN, and why none of them have ambassadors to other nations. They are "sovereign" in only a very limited sense, and are not true nation-states.

That is why the 50 states are in a "union" and not seperate sovereign entities like I said. That however does not mean the federal government should dictate how elections play out since these are the rules set by the 50 states ... 

Hence the constitution should serve as a mandate for how the 50 states should elect a president, not the federal government enforcing a national popular vote on state legislatures without their approval ... 

Shadow1980 said:

And that's something I disagree with wholly. Balkanizing America into an EU-like entity is not a solution, and would cause more problems than it would fix. In fact, that's why the Constitution exists in the first place. The U.S. could barely be regarded as a nation-state prior to 1788. Under the Articles of Confederation, which was not so much a constitution as it was a treaty between 13 disparate nation-states, we barely functioned. The Founders realized we couldn't survive like that and created the Constitution, making the U.S. a proper nation with a relatively strong central government, but with the states retaining significant autonomy. Any further questions regarding whether states were truly sovereign nation-states in their own regard was settled by the Civil War and the Texas v. White decision, which made the supposed "right" of states to unilaterally secede from the union legally dubious at best. And historically, "state's rights" (a concept that assumes states have rights, which I reject) has been used to justify far more bad things than good, most notably slavery and Jim Crow. While I don't necessarily believe the U.S. should be a unitary state, I do think the federal government serves plenty of useful roles, and in regards to basic rights most things had to be settled at the federal level. As a resident of South Carolina, I shudder to think what would happen if my state became and independent country, what with its track record over the decades. I would have to move to California or somewhere in the Northeast.

And that's all I care to say for now. You know where I stand. We've gone way off-track, plus I need to go to bed, and I can't keep devoting 30+ minutes to writing these posts twice a day. 

There should be no strong central government if it means that most states can not make a compromise these days. States should have the vast majority of the say of a citizens life in their state ... 

A federal government should not try to push their own progressive or conservative agenda on them ... 

You just have to trust that your state legislature will come to do the right thing in the end even if it means having some setbacks because coming to an agreement through harmony is much more peaceful than through a revolution so saying that a state can't secede is not an option when the United States was originally created as a union ... 



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Shadow1980 said:


Simply saying it's necessary doesn't make it so. I've yet to see a convincing case that the EC is absolutely necessary in the U.S. because of conditions supposedly unique to us or whatever.

It's starting to look like you're simply arguing from the point of view that "Our system is the best system because it's our system and because the Founders said so, so never question it." And considering how your comments in other threads indicate you're a Trump guy, you probably also like it because it got your guy in office. For all I know you could be one of that 34% of Republicans who two months ago decided to flip-flop on the EC since wanting it abolished after the 2012 election.

I support Trump only because of the grief he brings among his detractors, nothing more and nothing less ...  

The electoral college isn't the best system and I'm not arguing that, it's the system that most states will agree on and America was made on that compromise ... 

Shadow1980 said:


So America has nothing to learn from other countries? What hubris.

Why insist that they do have something to learn from other countries when the conditions and circumstances are different ? 

Shadow1980 said:


Tyranny of the majority isn't used as an excuse to make Representatives, Senators, governors, etc., indirectly elected. The President is the only notable elected officer that is elected indirectly. And that's all the "tyranny of the majority" talk is: an excuse. Direct election of the President wouldn't suddenly turn America into a despotic regime where those who didn't vote for him/her would be subject to reprisal. All it would do is make the President directly elected by popular vote.

And I used Hamilton to illustrate what one of the likely reasons (among several coexisting reasons) for the EC's existence was.
 I think their quotes provide insight on why we have the system we do. But I don't idolize or deify the Founders.They were a fractious bunch with different opinions on how governments should function. I think "original intent" is mostly a bunch of hokum that derives from our national obsession with "Founder worship." Sometimes I agree with what some of them have to say, and sometimes I don't. Whatever the intent of any one Founder is, America is a very different place than it was 230 years ago. Whatever political and social realities there were that led to the EC are non-issues today.

Not really, tyranny of the majority is a very real thing when one party has absolute power to pass any legislation provided with popular support ... 

That's why we have filibusters in the senate and it's why biparistan support is heavily encouraged between the incumbent and the opposition when passing legislation ... 

An administration could easily devastate smaller states with passing legislation they don't like when they have supermajority support in the senate and a majority in the house of representatives ... 

Shadow1980 said:

For the same reason we have "one person, one vote" for all other elections. It's the most fair and representative system. Sure, your side might still lose elections, and policies may get passed you don't like, but that's the case regardless of whether the President is elected directly or indirectly. The point of electoral reform is make elections more fair and representative. The EC is neither fair nor representative. 

Let's get this out of the way, you don't think the electoral college is fair or representative but the states seem to disagree with you ... 

The idea of what's "fair" is beyond me ... 

Shadow1980 said:

It means that candidates have to win voters from all over the country, urban and rural, big state and small state. They wouldn't win states anymore. Is that a difficult concept to grasp?

In the current system, the only states that matter are the competitive states that could go either way. Uncompetitive states are considered a given and thus not visited by candidates. Republicans know they'll never win and Democrats know they'll never lose California or New York, so they don't pay them any mind, and vice versa for states like Nebraska or Mississippi. If the EC was designed at least in part to make candidates care about small states, it failed miserably in that regard. Big states like Florida and Ohio matter more than Vermont or Wyoming, even if they may be under-represented in terms of proportional voting power. Of the 25 least populous states, only three—New Hampshire, Nevada, and Iowa—get any attention from presidential candidates. If the EC is supposed to make candidates about geographically or socially diverse areas, it has also failed. See again swing states. The EC only makes candidates care about states that they can potentially swing from their opponent's column into their own.

To put it in pictures, here's how presidential candidates view America:




See that? That is indefensible.

The electoral college is not designed to form each states political climate, it's formed in mind as a compromise in voting power between the small and the big states ... 

I don't see the problem when the big states get what they want like having more power in the end with the house of representatives and the small states having equal representation in the senate ... 

The "you can't compete in non-swing states" argument is just toxic in general and toxic to the presidential candidate itself. It's no wonder tons of presidential candidates lose with that type of attitude ... 

Republicans used to once think that MI, WI, and PA were lost causes up until this election and there may be hope yet for them to one day flip states like Minnesota and Maine at large which were known democratic strongholds prior to the recent election. One day a democratic candidate with far more appeal to the south could make Arizona vote blue if this election was anything to go by ... 

You don't win by just appealing to just the swing states when you still didn't have a path to victory as most pundits pointed out for Trump (winning OH, FL, and NC or other republican leaning states wasn't going to cut it), you win by walking across the party lines and Trump heavily outperformed Clinton in that regard when he did a far better job at appealing to democratic leaning states like in the midwest and rural areas ... 

Shadow1980 said:

The federal government has dictated how elections are played out since 1788. The rules for federal elections are spelled out in the Constitution, and have changed several times due to varying amendments and laws.

No they don't. It's like Obama said, "elections are run by state and local officials" ... 

The consitution lists out that states will elect their electors like you said before. If the federal government dictates how a state will choose their electors that's a clear violation of the constitution ... 

The consitution makes it clearer than ever that it is states that will dictate presidential elections and not the other way around ... 

Shadow1980 said:



The EC would have to be abolished by a constitutional amendment. The amendment would have to be approved by at least 38 states. Not exactly "without their approval" of the state legislatures. Any they gave up the ability to elect Senators, passing that responsibility to the people 103 years ago. If a national popular vote amendment were to pass Congress, it would stand a very good chance of being ratified.

I doubt it in the current conditions when republicans have utter domination in the state legislatures and in governorships. If you wanted to know why republicans are so good at gerrymandering this is practically it when both of those positions control the redistricting process which will go on to help republicans in the house of representative's elections ... 

In fact republicans are just 5 states away from being able to ratify constitutional amendments unopposed and without congress to boot cause democrats don't pay enough attention to state level elections ... 

Those who control the states have everlasting and persisting powers in America as that power can override congress itself! The founding fathers prepared for a day when congress couldn't be trusted anymore and the state legislatures are the key tickets ... 

Shadow1980 said:


But state governments should? Why are state governments fine but the federal government is scary? A government is a government, and state governments have often times been far worse than the federal government. If the U.S. balkanized into 50 different nations, you'd probably start complaining about your state's government and demand the counties be the new "states."

The root of all evil is not government, the root of all evil is central government. If you don't like a state you can move to a new one that fits your agenda or best of all if states had more power over their land they wouldn't have to worry about the opposing federal government ... 

Shadow1980 said:

Considering the history of South Carolina, I wouldn't trust my state government any further than I could throw them. This place would be a hellhole if it were an independent country. The spirit of the Confederate States never died, and I shudder to think what would happen if this state ever reverted politically back to where it was in the 1860s. If you're not a white heterosexual male Christian, you'd probably be fucked. I don't know if you're from the South or what your thoughts on these rebel flag-waving types down here are, but they are not the kind of people I'd want determining anything in my life.

Anyway, I realize now I've been arguing about the nature of style of governments and elections with someone who is fine with unfair, unrepresentative electoral systems and is, who possibly favors the current system because it got his guy elected, and, as far as I can tell, is fundamentally anti-government as a matter of principle (at least insofar as most conservatives  "hate" government unless it's building massive military programs, doling out corporate welfare, or "keeping the gays in their place"), which is about as fruitful as a discussion between a theist and an atheist over the existence of God. This discussion has become a dead-end back-and-forth. You know where I stand on these issues, so there's no point in elaborating on them further. You can reply if you want, but I'm out.

You don't have to worry about states being socially regressive anymore when the trend is socially progressive for every state including from the south ... 

It's funny to see liberals accuse conservatives as being warhawks when they'll so readily be confrontational with Russia so I guess liberals do share ideas with nutcase necons like Lindsey Graham and John McCain after all ... 

I guess the conservatives dodged a bullet with Trump by picking a paleocon ... 



bunchanumbers said:
aLkaLiNE said:
Honestly if I had won the election against all odds and against actual professionals then I'd probably throw shade here and there too 😂 Shows how much faith we have in our government to elect an outsider such as himself.

He wasn't elected. He was chosen by the electoral college. He lost the actual vote.

hate to break it to you, but in the US the ELECToral college is what elects our President. Each state holds an election to determine who they well send to place votes to elect a president. It is done this way because we are a republic, you know made of 50 states, DC and a few territories who don't get representation. The states are weighted based on population how many votes they get to cast for the President. This a good system IMO. It prevents a state that has become exeteme in their political views as a whole from having a disproportate effect on the other states. This works both ways and has in the past. It is only in the past few decades that the urban centers have polarized from well everywhere else. So places like Cali which also has the largest population cast a vast majority of their votes one direction.

Things tend to normalize, either the rest of the country will move more in line with where Cali and NY are, or Cali and NY will moderate so that their large population centers don't have a disproportionate effect on the rest of the country. You know like the places where cattle are raised or crops are grown that feed these larger population centers whose industries are built on finance or services that the rest of the country cosumes. 

Personally I think Trump will have a moderating effect. He is a pro LGBT Republican president, so it will be hard now for a anti-LGBT Republican to gain a following at the national level. He is a pro entitlements. Another thing he will moderate the republicans, I already see signs that prominate democrats are moving to a more moderate position with things like gun control or immigration which was a major part of the rise of Bernie and one of their rising stars Tulsi Gabbart also holds moderate positions. 

Trump is very moderate on most issues, which I know is hard to believe if you got caught up in the media hysteria during the election. 



psn- tokila

add me, the more the merrier.

The asspain of liberals for the next 4 years is going to be legendary.



I don't know if I should root for Fatslob or Shadow...

Oh, I know;

Which one of you thought Hillary was a good candidate and wasn't vehemently upset that Bernie didn't win the Democratic seat?



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JudasKiss said:
The asspain of liberals for the next 4 years is going to be legendary.

Enjoy being hated by the world community and being a laughingstock the world over. 



Lefil said:
JudasKiss said:
The asspain of liberals for the next 4 years is going to be legendary.

Enjoy being hated by the world community and being a laughingstock the world over. 

Actually it will be kinda nice to be able to shit all over the president constantly. 

That's one of the things about being president ... after the fun honeymoon period wears off, you get blamed for everything. Lets see how Trump deals with it, I don't think this is going to be an easy 4 years for him. Being the most hated person in the country is part of the job description, but with Trump it could reach "legendary" levels. 

Might make George W. Bush look like a picnic. 



Lefil said:
JudasKiss said:
The asspain of liberals for the next 4 years is going to be legendary.

Enjoy being hated by the world community and being a laughingstock the world over. 

Worrying about the world first is exactly what led to the disdain needed to vote Trump into office. Globalism is a pipedream, and it's been proven how many times now that a majority of the people don't want a globalist mindset in control. No offense to any other nationality or group of people, but I'm an American first, and I want a leader that helps build up the home base before worrying about the feelings of countries that don't reciprocate the help the USA is constantly sending. 



JudasKiss said:
Lefil said:

Enjoy being hated by the world community and being a laughingstock the world over. 

Worrying about the world first is exactly what led to the disdain needed to vote Trump into office. Globalism is a pipedream, and it's been proven how many times now that a majority of the people don't want a globalist mindset in control. No offense to any other nationality or group of people, but I'm an American first, and I want a leader that helps build up the home base before worrying about the feelings of countries that don't reciprocate the help the USA is constantly sending. 

Globalism is inevitable because of capitalism and technology. Look around the room you're sitting. I'd venture a guess there are items from 100 different places. That inevitably creates a centralized global market, and money is power, thus the world is global, has been for the last 50-100 years and will always be until we do something like bomb otherselves into nuclear orbit sending back civilization to the stone age. That genie came out of the bottle a long time ago and the early 20th century is never coming (and good riddance I say, I quite like working toilets and warm showers). 

You think Trump's like 7 or 8 Goldman Sachs hires aren't globalists? You think they give a shit about potatoe farmers? Tsk tsk. 

The funny thing is most of the people of America don't even a remote clue as to how their own economic system works. No idea how a stock market works, no idea how a bank functions, etc. etc. 



 

JudasKiss said:
Lefil said:

Enjoy being hated by the world community and being a laughingstock the world over. 

Worrying about the world first is exactly what led to the disdain needed to vote Trump into office. Globalism is a pipedream, and it's been proven how many times now that a majority of the people don't want a globalist mindset in control. No offense to any other nationality or group of people, but I'm an American first, and I want a leader that helps build up the home base before worrying about the feelings of countries that don't reciprocate the help the USA is constantly sending. 

I heard stupid Americans uttering the very same mantra aloud during the Bush years that put the world in the mess.