FFXV should reach 1m soon enough.

3DS slaying
FFXV coming for 900k, and with digital sales it must be closer to 1 million than we think.

I believe PS4 2017 hardware sales will beat 2016.

I agree with most of your points and the game list you and Boutros posted tells the rest of the story.

I expect it to do no less than 1.6m. Could fall anywhere between 1.6-2m. But anywhere over 1.5m will satisfy me. I'm looking forward to seeing the spring baseline in 2017 and then the summer baseline during the summer. 

Bolded ones I am interested in. 2017 won't be a cheap year of gaming for me.

Is Resident Evil popular in Japan ? Someone knows the numbers of previous games ?

many entries went well over a mill

Was popular, this one will be down a lot compared to previous two entries when all said and done. 

It's possible that they are going digital with software on certain IP, FF XV was the most downloaded game in Japan PSN history when it launched..... So maybe with PSN numbers the game could be much closer to a million already

Baseline, it's all about the baseline. The price of PS4 hardware is now more tolerable and no doubt Sony will do pricedrop somewhere along the year to reach that sweetspot like you said. That's what consumers worldwide expected this year and it happened, next year it's the same thing and for Sony there's the agenda to fight against Switch and Scorpio. Pricedrop will happen.

Without crazy delays 2017 software lineup looks much stronger than 2016. And I'm not even counting on FF7R or DQXI to  be released in 2017. It's just games from familiar franchises releasing one after the other like clockwork, giving the PS4 hardware sales a constant bump.

PS4 Pro sales, even at 4-5k a week will add to the baseline compared to 2016. Also let's not forget PS4 had some surprisingly slow periods in 2016 so the whole year 2017 does not need to be magical.