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Forums - Sales Discussion - PS4 has beaten the SNES in Sales (NES next target)

the-pi-guy said:
Kerotan said:

Well in that case dedicated handhelds have gone extinct. 

Nintendo said they are keeping the 3DS.  

https://www.vg247.com/2016/10/20/nintendo-says-switch-is-a-home-system-first-which-means-3ds-is-safe-for-now/

"Speaking with Polygon, a Nintendo representative told the site Switch was “a home gaming system first and foremost,” when asked if the portable system would hurt sales of the 3DS family."

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-10-29-nintendo-isnt-replacing-3ds-with-switch

I do not get this argument. If it does both, why not realize Nintendo had a great idea and that is that. If someone releases a car that drives by the roads and also flies, we will not say "it is the end of the aviation industry as we know it". It is just a cool gadget that does both. I like it.



My grammar errors are justified by the fact that I am a brazilian living in Brazil. I am also very stupid.

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WagnerPaiva said:
the-pi-guy said:

Nintendo said they are keeping the 3DS.  

https://www.vg247.com/2016/10/20/nintendo-says-switch-is-a-home-system-first-which-means-3ds-is-safe-for-now/

"Speaking with Polygon, a Nintendo representative told the site Switch was “a home gaming system first and foremost,” when asked if the portable system would hurt sales of the 3DS family."

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2016-10-29-nintendo-isnt-replacing-3ds-with-switch

I do not get this argument. If it does both, why not realize Nintendo had a great idea and that is that. If someone releases a car that drives by the roads and also flies, we will not say "it is the end of the aviation industry as we know it". It is just a cool gadget that does both. I like it.

Wherefore, Nintendo's plan is to keep pushing 3DS, while they have killed wii u since March... Also, who says that Nintendo doesn't intend to release a separate successor to 3DS...? Which could still have the same game library with switch, don't fear that you will lose the benefits of shared libary, i.e developement quality, since you focus in one game library and quantity, because  you unify  two game libraries, that each has its own franchises.

( of course there are drawbacks, regarding software sales,  will/can a hybrid system one Mario kart game , sell as much as Mario kart home console  and Mario kart handheld console would sell combined )

If switch can't be sold standalone for 199$ and less ( they could make a cheaper/more portable version/ like 2ds for 3ds though ),  don't expect it to be 3DS replacement.

 

 

Nintendo switch  is essentially a portable home console, it's what wii u should be and it replaces wii u for sure...

Switch is the home console that has a commodity which lets you to transfer it outside or  move wherever you want in your home and keep playing, without a tv...

People think that they made it to replace both of their consoles.   it could be simply that Nintendo wanted to lure home console players to buy their next home console thanks to this special feature and isn't aimed to handheld console gamers.

Nintendo might not have handheld console gamers in their minds with switch! Switch could be destined for those home console gamers who doesn't want to leave the game in the middle either because someone esle or themselves want to watch tv, whether because nature calls them or they have to/will exit their home...



Intrinsic said:
bdbdbd said:

Who says they (will) play the same games? You have them doing that now, but it's more likely the devs are going to take advantage of the increased power - as the games are low-end PC games anyway.

And this is exactky how misinformation spreads. 

Q: Will PS4 Pro have separate or exclusive games?
There will not be any PS4 Pro-exclusive games. Because PS4 Pro and the standard PS4 are members of the same family, both systems will be fully compatible with all past, present, and future PS4 titles, including PlayStation VR. All PS4 games are PS4 Pro games, and vice-versa.

Official Playstation Blog

We said we're not going to have console-exclusive games for Project Scorpio. It's one ecosystem--whether you have an Xbox One S or Project Scorpio, we don't want anyone to be left behind,

Interview of Aaron Greenberg/Gamespot

so the platform holders have said there wont be exclusive games for the revised consoles. And that they will all be in rhe same ecosystem. Good enough for you?

Fair enough. I trust this goes for the third parties aswell. However, I really don't see the point in either of the systems, as you really can't take advantage of the increased system power, or if you do, the downscaling isn't going to do justice for the original systems.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

bdbdbd said:

Fair enough. I trust this goes for the third parties aswell. However, I really don't see the point in either of the systems, as you really can't take advantage of the increased system power, or if you do, the downscaling isn't going to do justice for the original systems.

The power of the systems are being used exactky as intended. Its why i keep saying the are just souped up versions of the exact same consoles. They are designed to support 4k TVs, give you higher rez, better framerates, all round better IQ assets and that's pretty much it. They are not designed to give you 20 enemies where there user to be 10. Or outright give you games that can't be run on their older siblings. 

Its simple, if you own a 4k TV or plan on getting one within the next year, then the PS4pro and Scorpio won't only make sense to you but are for you. If you are on a 1080p TV and don't plan on upgrading anytime soon, then stick with a PS4/XB1s. 



Intrinsic said:
bdbdbd said:

Fair enough. I trust this goes for the third parties aswell. However, I really don't see the point in either of the systems, as you really can't take advantage of the increased system power, or if you do, the downscaling isn't going to do justice for the original systems.

The power of the systems are being used exactky as intended. Its why i keep saying the are just souped up versions of the exact same consoles. They are designed to support 4k TVs, give you higher rez, better framerates, all round better IQ assets and that's pretty much it. They are not designed to give you 20 enemies where there user to be 10. Or outright give you games that can't be run on their older siblings. 

Its simple, if you own a 4k TV or plan on getting one within the next year, then the PS4pro and Scorpio won't only make sense to you but are for you. If you are on a 1080p TV and don't plan on upgrading anytime soon, then stick with a PS4/XB1s. 

I can technically understand the 4K, but essentially you're saying the same thing I was meaning. If you're designing your game to "run with better framerate on Pro/Scorpio", instead of optimising the game for the original, or have better AI on them, the original is going to het the watered down version.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

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bdbdbd said:
Intrinsic said:

And this is exactky how misinformation spreads. 

Q: Will PS4 Pro have separate or exclusive games?
There will not be any PS4 Pro-exclusive games. Because PS4 Pro and the standard PS4 are members of the same family, both systems will be fully compatible with all past, present, and future PS4 titles, including PlayStation VR. All PS4 games are PS4 Pro games, and vice-versa.

Official Playstation Blog

We said we're not going to have console-exclusive games for Project Scorpio. It's one ecosystem--whether you have an Xbox One S or Project Scorpio, we don't want anyone to be left behind,

Interview of Aaron Greenberg/Gamespot

so the platform holders have said there wont be exclusive games for the revised consoles. And that they will all be in rhe same ecosystem. Good enough for you?

Fair enough. I trust this goes for the third parties aswell. However, I really don't see the point in either of the systems, as you really can't take advantage of the increased system power, or if you do, the downscaling isn't going to do justice for the original systems.

It is the same as PC. There are low end and high end PC's that run the same games at different settings. It will still have better optimisation than PC games as there are two hardwares instead of a thousand hardware configurations like in PC.



bdbdbd said:
Intrinsic said:

The power of the systems are being used exactky as intended. Its why i keep saying the are just souped up versions of the exact same consoles. They are designed to support 4k TVs, give you higher rez, better framerates, all round better IQ assets and that's pretty much it. They are not designed to give you 20 enemies where there user to be 10. Or outright give you games that can't be run on their older siblings. 

Its simple, if you own a 4k TV or plan on getting one within the next year, then the PS4pro and Scorpio won't only make sense to you but are for you. If you are on a 1080p TV and don't plan on upgrading anytime soon, then stick with a PS4/XB1s. 

I can technically understand the 4K, but essentially you're saying the same thing I was meaning. If you're designing your game to "run with better framerate on Pro/Scorpio", instead of optimising the game for the original, or have better AI on them, the original is going to het the watered down version.

No. There is a resson why Pro enabled games are referred to as having  a PS4pro mode/patch. 

The games are designed for the PS4. then patched to have benefits when running on a PS4pro. Devs aren't going to build their game from the ground up for what is no more than a 1M sized install base and ignore 50M others. 



Shadow1980 said:
pray4mojo said:

I'm basing it on two things. The sales arch and the fact that we're entering year four of a (likely) 6 year cycle. The PS2, in year three, peaked. The PS4 just spent it's third year and it's barely half way to 100 million. Traditional sales data shows that sales will decline each year going forward. So, basic logic says that it's probably not going to get there before the next console comes out. This means that in order to sell 100 million units, it's going to have to sell 15-25 million while PS5 is out, and that is something we just don't see anymore in console gaming. 

The math just isn't there. I could be wrong though. We'll see.

This shows a complete lack of understanding of how and why consoles sell what they do.

Sales curves were typically relatively predictable barring unusual circumstances. It is true that systems did typically peak by their third full year, averaging around their second (within a given region, anyway). But this is not the case anymore. Last generation turned those assumptions on their head. The PS3 & 360 did not peak until 2011, fully five and six years after launch, respectively. That quite literally never happened before. The closest example was the Sega Genesis (in the U.S. at least), but that was only because Nintendo had a de facto monopoly on the market when the Genesis debuted, which greatly depressed sales in 1989-90. It wasn't until 1991, at which point Nintendo's monopoly had been broken, that the Genesis finally started selling, and it peaked in 1993.

One of the biggest factors influencing a system's success is pricing, and the biggest stimulator of sales is price cuts. IMO the only plausible explanation for the slow initial sales and extremely delayed peak of the PS3 & 360 was their relatively high inflation-adjusted price points at launch combined with price cuts that were spaced out more over time and were smaller in relative terms than past price cuts. In fact, I made a thread explaining this a few weeks back.

If we look at the actual factors involved in determining the sales curve of any given system, we can reasonably assume that the PS4 (and by extension the XBO) will likely peak a bit earlier than the PS3 & 360, but much later than the PS2 and other older systems did. It's reasonable to assume that the PS4 will peak next year. The PS4 had sold just shy of 36M units lifetime as of the end of 2015, so that means it has sold 14M globally this year as of the end of November and will likely sell another 5-6M in December, putting it at around 19-20M for the year, bringing its lifetime tally to as much as 56M. With the combined effect of the Slim and Pro likely continuing to cause sales growth into 2017, we could see sales upward of 22-23M next year, which would push the PS4 to close to 80M. While 2018 will likely see continued decline, even a rate of decline like the PS3, combined with the launch of the PS5 in 2020 (which will increase the rate of decline), the PS4 should still sell at least another 20M units by time it is discontinued. The PS3 was able to do that and more, with about 25M sold from 2012 through 2015. The PS4 should easily surpass 40M each in North America and Europe, will probably do around 10M in Japan, and should pull at least 15M down in other markets.

I honestly do not forsee any scenario where the PS4 fails to sell 100M units lifetime. The PS3 was able to sell 85M despite coming in a distant second in America and having a much smaller slice of the market in Europe than the PS2 did. With the PS4 far outpacing the PS3 in the West in both raw numbers and market share, 100M is essentially a shoo-in.

Actually, the late PS360 peak was largely because of Nintendo killing off the Wii, when Wii owners who wanted to play games had to buy themselves a new console. Also, the games people were waiting for came pretty late in the console's life.

Launches prior to 360 aren't really comparable worldwide, as the launches in different regions were so far from each other.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

How long do you guys think it will take the ps4 to trump the NES and move up another place in the all time best selling comsoles list?



Kerotan said:
How long do you guys think it will take the ps4 to trump the NES and move up another place in the all time best selling comsoles list?

I guess it really depends on when the next price break is...