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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Zelda: Breath of the Wild Sales Predictions

LipeJJ on 04 December 2016

After all the info we got regarding both Breath of the Wild and the Nintendo Switch, I think it's easier to predict sales for the game than it was 6 months ago (when I saw some threads about it). 

So, I want to ask you guys: How much do you think it will sell First Week and Lifetime? 

------------

I wonder if it can do 1m FW. It might seen easy at first seeing that this is a 3D console Zelda releasing with a big amount of hype, but at the same time the Wii U is dying, and if the game comes out for the Switch in June as rumored, the user base will be small (like 4m at best?). What do you think?



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WagnerPaiva on 04 December 2016

Lifetime 5 million if Switch is a ok console.
If Switch is a smash hit, 13 million

First week: 500k on WiiU, 1 million on Switch.



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Oneeee-Chan!!! on 04 December 2016

FW　4m
LT　 12m



Platina on 04 December 2016

Too early to say, in my opinion

If stock isn't an issue for the Wii U version, it can definitely sell 1.5+ M



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LipeJJ on 04 December 2016
Mar1217 said:
LipeJJ said:

After all the info we got regarding both Breath of the Wild and the Nintendo Switch, I think it's easier to predict sales for the game than it was 6 months ago (when I saw some threads about it). 

So, I want to ask you guys: How much do you think it will sell First Week and Lifetime? 

------------

I wonder if it can do 1m FW. It might seen easy at first seeing that this is a 3D console Zelda releasing with a big amount of hype, but at the same time the Wii U is dying, and if the game comes out for the Switch in June as rumored, the user base will be small (like 4m at best?). What do you think?

I think you didn't put to much thought into it. The next Zelda isn't suppose to just gather the earliest NS adopters who already own it. This game is a flagship title and will easily bring a lot of people into the next Nintendo platform(Switch) too.

It's just my way of seeing it though.

So I predict the game will sell 3.5M first week. I'm not sure with lifetime sells so I guess I'll go with an estimate of 7M-10M.

I know, I think it can/will do 1m+ FW combined, I'm just saying this isn't 100% guaranteed yet. It will need a great attach rate for the first week to do it.

Btw, can you do a breakdown between Switch/WiiU of your 3.5m prediction? I'm guessing you're expecting the Switch version to do at least 2m FW? In that case, the attach rate would need to be something like 50% FW. I believe that's unprecedented (or extremely rare) for a game not bundled.



Bet with Teeqoz for 2 weeks of avatar and sig control that Super Mario Odyssey would ship more than 7m on its first 2 months. The game shipped 9.07m, so I won

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SegataSanshiro on 05 December 2016

2 million first week Switch
300K FW Wii U

LT 11 Million Switch
Wii U 1.3 million.



onionberry on 05 December 2016

7m



ktay95 on 05 December 2016

50



Slarvax on 05 December 2016

It's really hard to tell. First week depends on release date and how many Wii U owners will actually get it, which will be pretty low. Does it launch with the Switch or is it a Summer/Fall release?

As for lifetime, this is a game we have to expect very long legs, not only from quality but also timing. It will probably be the only Zelda game until AT LEAST late 2018, and the majority of new Switch owners will get it or Mario with the system.

I think we will get a near Splatoon "surprise" (but with a fairly better FW). When I make this type of predictions, I like using ranges:

Assuming it's a launch title
FW - 1.1 million to 1.6 million (500k to 800k for Wii U)

Launch window title
FW - 2.2 million to 3 million (400k to 600k for Wii U)

LT - 6 to 8 million (1 to 1.5 million for Wii U)



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MTZehvor on 05 December 2016

Boy this is a hard pick, having to guess the sales of a game releasing on two platforms, one of which was a flop and the other of which has yet to release. On top of that, there's rumors that the Wii U version might be pushed back a week to highlight the Switch.

So with no idea what the hell I'm doing, I'll say 1.5 million first week, 6.5 million lifetime combined. Going over 8 million seems way too optimistic. TP sold 8.75 million on the second best selling console of all time and a console that's sold twice as much as the Wii U. I don't expect the Switch to sell as well as the Wii, either, so BotW is already dealing with a much smaller user base.