Well it's all conjecture. And the only "thrustworthy" info we got were from EA saying digital was around 20% of sales (1 year ago)

To supose there are more people intending to buy or keep external drive space for X1 then there is people increasing their internal drive on PS4 is ok, but we can't infer how much that difference is (I don't think there are that many people expending hundred bucks to have external drive on X1). The other factors you put aren't quite that impactant.

So I see no issue in accept that PS4 digital is 20% and X1 30%. But when there are assumptions of PS4 being 15% and X1 being 50% things get ridiculous.

Look at the quote above for evidence.

At the start of the generation, even with Xb one's modest performance, I would not have picked Gears 4 to be below 1 million in sales after 4 weeks, even taking digital into account, it's clear there is still a large appetite for physical copies. Will be interesting to see how things look after the Holidays. Maybe there will be a big run of sales through Nov and Dec. If it hits the 3 million mark by the end of the year I can see it winding up with numbers comparable to the X360 games. But anything less that 2 million I would expect MS to be disappointed with the performance.

I don't really think they will get to 3M physical copies this year. The tendency is drop from week to week. So unless they make big deals for December and major bundles I wouldn't expect big numbers.

Yeah, one year ago, for a non first party game, at a time when Play Anywhere was only a thought... 

Also, it takes around 60 dollars to find a one TB external (proof, I own one). In between this and obtaining what's in a way two games for the price of one, it makes more sense to buy the digital version instead. There's less incentive to buy physical when digital downloads are half the cost. The reason behind my predictions lies in how MS has actively promoted digital sales over physical ones. Third party devs are not as lucky. After all, omitting third party games which aren't selling a lot, why the hell, for some odd reason, might this console still be outselling it's multimillion selling system? How are the guys at Redmond selling less games than before yet more consoles for some odd reason? 

Besides, considering this GoW was a lot better than the previous ones in some ways, I find it incredibly weird the game hasn't sold an awful lot. Because you know, this drop seems too sharp to be a decline in prominence. 

And for some reason does it cost a lot more to find a internal drive?

No it isn't two games for the price of one, sorry. But having the same game available in two systems doesn't magically turn it in 2 for 1, unless you want to count PS4 games 3 for the price of one since you can stream to PSVita and PSTV.

Half the cost where? I'm yet to find a new release that were any cheaper digitally than physical.

MS actively promote it because they cut the middleman and get more profits and lot less costs.

Now X1 is outselling which multimillion selling system? There is like 2 years since the last formal update MS gave on the numbers.

Halo and GoW have had a very sharp drop, and it makes little sense saying "ow it actually sold more than the previous version, because trust me the digital ratio is 70%"

No, there's no incentive to fill up a hard drive... Because you know, you'd only have one... I save my games on external HDDs and then use them like game cartridges. 

Really, as far as I know that was the very definition of 2 on 1. As far as I know if you want a Skyrim on PC and PS4, you have to buy two copies. Streaming doesn't compare to actually running the bloody game. 

You obtain two games and it costs one. Half the price. 

We are not discussing their financial reasons, only why people might prefer it (at this point, if it's an exclusive with Play Anywhere, it's a no brainer unless your internet connection's slow or your PC cannot run it anyways). 

The Xbox 360. NPD alone tells us this console has not stopped outperforming it's very successful predecessor. It's been doing this since it was released. It literally makes no sense whatsoever that more people buy an Xbox One yet they are playing less exclusives than the 360. Hence why I insist the digital attach rates must be higher. Make sense of the contrast between higher console sales and less disc sales and you'll realize either a lot of people bought their Xbox One for aesthetic purposes or they are buying these games digitally. There literally was no other reason. 

Use the US stores you pennybags! 

Seriously, I cannot be the only Yuro running American accounts (and you're running a Japanese account)... 

I see, so your use define a rule that everybody uses?

Nope, 2 in 1 would be buying Halo 5 and getting Halo 4 for free. Or when I buy a CD with music I should count 10 in 1 for the various ways I can transform that file and listen to it? You may say there is value in buying in one place and using in other, but that doesn't suddenly make it half the price. Because most wouldn't buy it twice just to play in two different system, even more when we see how bad the windows store sales were to suppose people were buying it to play on PC and X1. And of course streaming isn't the same as local run (yet people were all over the cloud right?) but if you want to say the price is less because you can play on your PC then I can say the price is 1/4 because I can stream to PSTV, PSVita and shareplay with a friend that doesn't have it (besides using in two accounts) well and we can't forget the share between PS4 and PS4Pro. Or even better if I buy it in physical media I can play in 10+ different PS4 I can then say the price was 1/10? Nope. the price stay the same, your convenience can increase or diminish and as such the value you infer to the product, but the price stayed the same.

NPD show X1 is outperforming the first years of X360 (which weren't that high). And since a lot of people was saying how UHD would make X1S sell more than PS4, why wouldn't people buy X1 for other reasons than playing games? And it's pure conjecture to say "it's selling more HW, but physical sales have dropped, so it's obvious the digital is not only making it sell equal but more than the previous interactions".

Halo3 launched on a 10-15M userbase and sold more than Halo 4 on a much much bigger userbase, so why would the userbase increase so much and people buy less 1st party?

Have you guessed for a second that people may be buying more for the 3rd party games than 1st party? A lot done that on PS3, you could see how few first party titles were in the top selling.

Until anyone have any concrete info to dismiss EA 20% evidence saying X1 have 50/70% digital attach ratio (but only for 1st party, I don't know why they would only buy 1st party, but that is your point) is wishfull thinking.

Comemorating the new year UC4 have sold through over 8,5M units by December 21st. So we are getting closer and closer to UC4 outselling Halo5+Gears4

Great!