Shadow1980 said: This is perhaps the single biggest polling failure since the 1948 election. While polling averages were quite accurate the last several presidential elections, this one failed miserably, at least in one particular region. While polling averages in Virginia and Colorado were correct, and Hillary did a bit better than expected in Nevada, but the Rust Belt was a total bust for Hillary. The Democratic candidate won PA, WI, and MI in every single election from 1992 to 2012, and polling averages showed Hillary sustaining that trend with a solid lead outside the margin of error in those three states, yet it appears Trump managed to flip them in the biggest upset in decades, just barely (we still need 100% of the results in to get a final measure because of how close they are), but a slim plurality is still a plurality. I don't think anybody saw this coming. Also, the gap was noticeably bigger in Ohio and Iowa than the polls suggested. So, something went uniquely wrong with the polling in the Rust Belt. What that is, I don't know. But what I do know is that I'm about to mentally check out. I'm going to lie down, watch some anime, and hope and pray to God that Trump doesn't burn down the fucking country between now and 2020. |
It's the same as we have with our nationalist party here in Sweden and similar to Brexit. People are simply afraid to admit in polls that they support the nationalist (or "populist") option in fear of getting labeled as a racist or xenophobe, so polls constantly underestimate the nationalist sentiments.
That's what the constant guilt and shaming by the left has done in our beautiful democracies. People are afraid of telling their true opinions.
Like yesterday at work. I work in a hospital and currently at a psychiatric clinic. The nurses, secretaries and everyone in our group were talking about the US election all day and worried. Everyone openly said they were terrified about Trump and worried because the polls were so close. "I'm terrified", "It is so horrible", "He is so terrible".
And then a nurse asked me, what do I think about the election. I said "I support Trump, obviously". Awkward silence.
You're just not allowed to have certain opinions in today's society. Freedom of speech and freedom of thought is under threat.