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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

Mummelmann on 23 October 2016
Faelco said:
Lrdfancypants said:

It doesn't look cheap to me. The controller looks terrible but they showed the other one and it looks fine.  

Different tastes ^^.

The other one looks fine, yes, but it won't be in or on the box...


EDIT : Big news, you can stop your prediction game and wait for more details:

 

So, they mean to launch another dedicated handheld as well, to compete with the whole mobility concept of the NS and smart devices all in one? That seems beyond ridiculous, they can't be that stupid, there's just no way that this is their plan. It also says a lot about the state of affairs if they replace the 3DS last, it's been out much longer (about 1,5 years longer from the first launch). Really shows how desperate they were getting over the whole Wii U situation, if this is true.

Again though; launching another handheld now would be murder, unless they're planning on releasing a phone or something. In which case; it'll be even more murder.



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Lrdfancypants on 23 October 2016
Faelco said:
Lrdfancypants said:

It doesn't look cheap to me. The controller looks terrible but they showed the other one and it looks fine.  

Different tastes ^^.

The other one looks fine, yes, but it won't be in or on the box...


EDIT : Big news, you can stop your prediction game and wait for more details:

 

 

EDIT 2 : Oh, not really new in fact, the tweet is already 2 days old and just got retweeted. The source is another tweet from one of Nintendo's investors, who deleted it.

Like I said. It doesn't look cheap. The wiiu was not appealing to me but this one is. If I do buy it I'll buy the pro controller or whatever they call it. 



l <---- Do you mean this glitch Gribble?  If not, I'll keep looking.  

 

 

 

 

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Marco....

Jumpinbeans on 23 October 2016

The only switch which will sell 100million is a light switch....not this.



Faelco on 23 October 2016
Mummelmann said:
Faelco said:

Different tastes ^^.

The other one looks fine, yes, but it won't be in or on the box...


EDIT : Big news, you can stop your prediction game and wait for more details:

 

So, they mean to launch another dedicated handheld as well, to compete with the whole mobility concept of the NS and smart devices all in one? That seems beyond ridiculous, they can't be that stupid, there's just no way that this is their plan. It also says a lot about the state of affairs if they replace the 3DS last, it's been out much longer (about 1,5 years longer from the first launch). Really shows how desperate they were getting over the whole Wii U situation, if this is true.

Again though; launching another handheld now would be murder, unless they're planning on releasing a phone or something. In which case; it'll be even more murder.

I'm sure they won't kill the 3DS before a while. It's their back-up plan. The Switch is a bet, they won't bet the entire hardware division on it. They will keep the 3DS running, mainly because it's still selling well and profitable. If the Switch has an awesome launch and first year, Nintendo will be able to convince developers to abandon the 3DS and go with the Switch, and then they will kill the handheld. If the Switch launch is average or slow, they will keep the 3DS and release a 3DS2 after a while if the Switch doesn't sell more. They will prefer losing once again the home console market rather than risking losing the handheld market (handheld+mobile games are more than enough). The obvious problem is that keeping the 3DS alive will hurt the Switch's sales...

They already said publicly that the Switch is a home console, that the 3DS still has a lot of games to come, and that the handheld future is undecided. It's pretty obvious that the 3DS status is "wait and see".

 

Lrdfancypants said:
Faelco said:

Different tastes ^^.

The other one looks fine, yes, but it won't be in or on the box...

Like I said. It doesn't look cheap. The wiiu was not appealing to me but this one is. If I do buy it I'll buy the pro controller or whatever they call it. 

Yes, I get it, that's why I said "different tastes". My friends and I don't like it, you do, that's perfectly fine ;)



Goodnightmoon on 23 October 2016

While your prediction is too high your points are actually pretty good.



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zorg1000 on 23 October 2016

There are obviously too many unknown factors to make an accurate prediction. Basically at this point all we know is the name, design & concept and still need to know the price, system features, launch lineup, 3rd party support, if it has droughts and if will have solid marketing/advertising.

3DS+Wii U will go on to sell somewhere around 85 million so i think somewhere in the 70-100 million range would be a good number for this achieve and is possible if all those factors listed above are executed properly.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

AZWification on 23 October 2016
Faelco said:
AZWification said:

I think 1 billion is more likely, mate.

Why stop at 1? More than 7 billions humans on the planet, so 7 billions is the minimum! We know most of us will buy several consoles...

 

Realistically speaking, we don't know enough about it to really predict the sales. 100M is almost impossible though. Depending on the details (price, power, battery...), it could be from 20m to 50m IMO. Don't forget that when it'll get to 10 or 20M, 100M people will already own a PS4 or Xbox One. The market doesn't have an infinite number of buyers (the total number of buyers on this gen will most likely be between 150 and 200M, depending on the Switch's success). Let's not forget the really bad release timing either, in March between the PS4 Pro Christmas and the Xbox Scorpio Chrismas (3 months only before the Scorpio E3). The audience able to increase the Switch's sales is the 3DS audience. As long as the 3DS is alive, the Switch's sales won't be that great. And when the 3DS will die, if they don't release the 3DS2, they'll still need to attract the audience to the Switch instead of the other mobiles/tablets. We're still not sure about the future of handheld Nintendo consoles, they're not clear about it (and the 3DS is their backup plan for now, so they won't be clear about it for a while). I think that a lot of 3DS players won't buy a Switch, like a lot of DS players didn't buy a 3DS...

Of course. I will buy at least 20 consoles myself.



                
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se7en7thre3 on 23 October 2016

Are we counting multiple Nintendo devices that play the same new gamecard?  If so, then it has a chance of beating the 3DS collection of devices, might flirt w/ 100 mil.

Switch home/portable console

Switch XL

portable HH

mini pc form factor w/ more power (4k?)

etc

It also depends on OS and Apps.  If there's a connection with their mobile offering ---marioRun, poke go etc---it'll help get those (casual/non consumer) ppl interested and transition easily to Ninty's new gen HW.



Slimebeast on 23 October 2016
RolStoppable said:
Nautilus said:

Here found it.They speak about price at around 6:30(was wrong about being Kate that said it)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsKf2XlbRXI

It should be noted that the news is "old" and might be more innacurate than rumours normally is.I also find this article that says it could be 300 dollars, but its more of a speculation than a rumor:

http://www.techradar.com/news/nintendo-nx-price

There is still alo9t to be revealed about the Switch.If they give enough things to warrant that price, I cant see why it couldnt sell.

So nothing of substance. That puts my mind at ease.

Slimebeast said:
2017: 10 million
2018: 12 million
2019: 13 million
2020: 12 million
2021: 9 million
2022: 3 million
-------------
59 million lifetime and a huge success

What? What is this bored looking woman supposed to depict?

Is 59 million in rufly five years unrealistic or that wouldn't be considered a huge success?



Faelco on 23 October 2016
RolStoppable said:
Slimebeast said:

What? What is this bored looking woman supposed to depict?

Is 59 million in rufly five years unrealistic or that wouldn't be considered a huge success?

That number wouldn't be a huge success.

It would put them back to the second position on the market, so yes, it would be. Even more if you consider that they don't want to kill the 3DS and are planning to release another handheld. Unless the Switch is really cheap, I don't think they'll even get to 50M. Or maybe if you consider the really late sales post-mortem (the PS3 is getting closer to the 90M this way...).