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Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

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Wyrdness said:
BillyBong said:

Eh.. I don't think they'll get to 100m+. I'm only saying it because of the still shoddy 3rd party support overall for Ninty. Ninty 1st party can only offer so much at a time. The times in between releases will be tough without big 3rd party hitters.
Look at MS.. they can stay afloat even without much 1st party games because of the big 3rd party games that comes to their system too. PS has a good mix of 1st and 3rd. I sense there will be dry spells in between ninty's big releases.. that could affect momentum.

 

They are definitely starting out strong but that was expected with releases like Zelda BOTW, Mario Odyssey, and Splatoon 2.  But it's almost like the big cards were dropped in it's first year.  What will it have to offer in the next year or 2 to keep momentum?.  

Neither Wii nor DS needed heavy third party support to get to 100m, 3DS has had decent level of support and manage to hit 70m (will finish at 75-80m at the end of things) even after the early troubles.

People thinking third parties will dictate hitting that mile stone are mistaken Nintendo really only ever need enough filler titles between first party title to be fine as its their first party that sell the platform not third party. Far all big cards are used, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi, Metroid etc... You even mentioned Splatoon 2 which is a new IP only established 3 years ago what's to say more like it aren't on the way.

As good as some of those other games are, they're not exactly system sellers. 

This isn't a bash on ninty's games or game quality, but whether or not they'll hit the 100m mark when it's all said and done.  I just don't see it without 3rd  party support for the inbetween big ninty releases.  Guesss time will tell if it ends up doing Wii or WiiU numbers.  Wii had a great motion control gimmick that made it a seller for families with small kids.  That helped paved the way for a decent 3rd party support line even if there  was a lot of shovelware. . Will have to see if the portability schtick will play as important a factor for the switch.

Last edited by BillyBong - on 21 January 2018

Man.. I hate it when your girl has to leave my place to come back to you..

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zorg1000 said:
newwil7l said:

3DS did not have a monster December because of Pokemon lol. If that was the case 3DS would have had a bigger one last year when Sun/Moon released. 

Actually there was a 3DS shortage last holiday.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/circuitbreaker/2017/2/7/14526666/nintendo-new-3ds-xl-stock-issues-sold-out-switch-third-party-grey-market&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAIegQIFRAB&usg=AOvVaw1iEHgwKzMDYpmtOrUJEpJn&cf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.polygon.com/platform/amp/2016/12/19/14006908/where-to-buy-a-nintendo-3ds&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjALegQIEBAB&usg=AOvVaw1EVg3paIjk7SzYGVmarOrV&cf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://en-americas-support.nintendo.com/app/social/questions/detail/qid/48023/~/obtaining-the-new-nintendo-3ds-xl&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAKegQIERAB&usg=AOvVaw3933_11_uAaPRV8rgKwhBp

A shortage that changed the tides by over 300K?



newwil7l said:
zorg1000 said:

Actually there was a 3DS shortage last holiday.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.theverge.com/platform/amp/circuitbreaker/2017/2/7/14526666/nintendo-new-3ds-xl-stock-issues-sold-out-switch-third-party-grey-market&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAIegQIFRAB&usg=AOvVaw1iEHgwKzMDYpmtOrUJEpJn&cf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.polygon.com/platform/amp/2016/12/19/14006908/where-to-buy-a-nintendo-3ds&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjALegQIEBAB&usg=AOvVaw1EVg3paIjk7SzYGVmarOrV&cf=1

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://en-americas-support.nintendo.com/app/social/questions/detail/qid/48023/~/obtaining-the-new-nintendo-3ds-xl&ved=2ahUKEwi5v53YuerYAhVPKKwKHc2SCy4QFjAKegQIERAB&usg=AOvVaw3933_11_uAaPRV8rgKwhBp

A shortage that changed the tides by over 300K?

Possibly, it was difficult to find a 3DS in holiday 2016 and even the first few months of 2017.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

BillyBong said:
Wyrdness said:

Neither Wii nor DS needed heavy third party support to get to 100m, 3DS has had decent level of support and manage to hit 70m (will finish at 75-80m at the end of things) even after the early troubles.

People thinking third parties will dictate hitting that mile stone are mistaken Nintendo really only ever need enough filler titles between first party title to be fine as its their first party that sell the platform not third party. Far all big cards are used, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi, Metroid etc... You even mentioned Splatoon 2 which is a new IP only established 3 years ago what's to say more like it aren't on the way.

As good as some of those other games are, they're not exactly system sellers. 

This isn't a bash on ninty's games or game quality, but whether or not they'll hit the 100m mark when it's all said and done.  Guess time will tell if it ends up doing Wii or WiiU numbers.  Wii had a great motion control gimmick that made it a seller for families with small kids.  Will have to see if the portability schtick will play as important a factor. 

Except those games are system sellers more so than Mario and Zelda, Fire Emblem causes hardware spikes in Japan, Pokemon and AC are 10m sellers on average and Tomodachi shifts 5-6m only Metroid remains to be seen if it can move systems, the Switch can't do Wii U numbers because going by the shipped total by analysts it's already outsold the Wii U.



newwil7l said:
flashfire926 said:

He literally just said what he bases this off of.

3DS only did 750k  this December in the US cause of Pokemon US/UM. It wouldn't stand a chance without those games.

3DS was up yoy in 2016 because of pokemon go/sun moon. Despite not having that many huge sellers that year.

3DS would be at like ~35 million without pokemon.

3DS did not have a monster December because of Pokemon lol. If that was the case 3DS would have had a bigger one last year when Sun/Moon released. 

The increase from last year is because  the term "nintendo" is way more relevant this holiday than last holiday, thanks to the switch, which adds on to the pokemon effect.

In the US (and probably most other territories too, the best selling 3DS games this year, as per npd goes like this:

  1. Pokemon: Ultra Sun
  2. Pokemon: Ultra Moon
  3. Pokemon: Sun
  4. Pokemon: Moon
  5. Super Mario Maker
  6. Metroid: Samus Returns
  7. Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia
  8. Super Smash Bros.
  9. Mario Kart 7
  10. Poochy and Yoshi's Wolly World
To say pokemon is not the driving force of 3ds sales is beyond stupid.
Edit: and as like zorg1000 said, there were 3ds shortages late last year as well.


Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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100+ million units? it is still too high, I'm just glad that the first year, it could outsell the WiiU lifetime sales, barring any shortages.
Overall it is a good first year, but the second year Nintendo needs the big hitters - Smash and/or Pokemon. I couldn't see any other IP that could push it in millions on the western market. Yokai Switch could be a good one on Japan but Yokai numbers are going down as well. Hence Level 5 needs to rethink or re-capture the audience that bought the 1st game. They need new mechanics or so.

There are a ton of other IPs but it won't sell that much like Pokemon or Smash. And we won't have a new Mario Kart soon. If the second year is better than the first, then it might reach DS level total sales number.



BillyBong said:
Wyrdness said:

Neither Wii nor DS needed heavy third party support to get to 100m, 3DS has had decent level of support and manage to hit 70m (will finish at 75-80m at the end of things) even after the early troubles.

People thinking third parties will dictate hitting that mile stone are mistaken Nintendo really only ever need enough filler titles between first party title to be fine as its their first party that sell the platform not third party. Far all big cards are used, Pokemon, Fire Emblem, Animal Crossing, Tomodachi, Metroid etc... You even mentioned Splatoon 2 which is a new IP only established 3 years ago what's to say more like it aren't on the way.

As good as some of those other games are, they're not exactly system sellers. 

This isn't a bash on ninty's games or game quality, but whether or not they'll hit the 100m mark when it's all said and done.  I just don't see it without 3rd  party support for the inbetween big ninty releases.  Guesss time will tell if it ends up doing Wii or WiiU numbers.  Wii had a great motion control gimmick that made it a seller for families with small kids.  That helped paved the way for a decent 3rd party support line even if there  was a lot of shovelware. . Will have to see if the portability schtick will play as important a factor for the switch.

Pokemon will be a system seller. LABO will be a system seller. Animal Crossing will be a system seller. Smash will be a system seller. There will be others, like Fire emblem that will be system sellers to a lesser extent. Brand new Mario Kart will be a system seller.



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Wyrdness said:

No they don't do it because the is competition present that could try and exploit the situation, GB had no competition that could hold a candle to it so no your argument here on library is flimsy as under your stance new 3DS is a separate system as is DS Lite.

The reason behind the decision doesn't matter as that's not baked into my argument. They choose not to do it, end of story and that makes all the difference in comparison to GB/GBA ... 

And the new 3DS is a separate system along with DSi (DS Lite is just a slim version of the DS original) but nobody makes a big deal about it ... 



flashfire926 said:

3DS would be at like ~35 million without pokemon.

Thats a huge exaggeration.

3DS shipments were 34.98 million as of Sept 30, 2013. Thats 2 weeks before the first mainline Pokemon titles released on 3DS.

Also 3DS lifetime sales will be over 75 million when all is said and done, so you think ~40 million of those came directly from Pokemon despite mainline Pokemon games on 3DS being around 50 million?

 

Pokemon is def one of, if not the biggest system sellers for 3DS but it would have still easily cleared 50 million without it.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Wyrdness said:
BillyBong said:

As good as some of those other games are, they're not exactly system sellers. 

This isn't a bash on ninty's games or game quality, but whether or not they'll hit the 100m mark when it's all said and done.  Guess time will tell if it ends up doing Wii or WiiU numbers.  Wii had a great motion control gimmick that made it a seller for families with small kids.  Will have to see if the portability schtick will play as important a factor. 

Except those games are system sellers more so than Mario and Zelda, Fire Emblem causes hardware spikes in Japan, Pokemon and AC are 10m sellers on average and Tomodachi shifts 5-6m only Metroid remains to be seen if it can move systems, the Switch can't do Wii U numbers because going by the shipped total by analysts it's already outsold the Wii U.

Seriously?.. you think a strategic rpg will sell consoles?  Animal crossing?  Or even Pokemon?  Andtrust me, I know how big Pokemon is for kids.. I've seen myself the Pokemon craze in Japan, but yes, those games will sell.. but I don't think they'll push much for the console itself.  The Wii u had similar titles too.. Dont think it helped..But like I said, we'll just have to wait and see.



Man.. I hate it when your girl has to leave my place to come back to you..