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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

flashfire926 said:
newwil7l said:

3DS did not have a monster December because of Pokemon lol. If that was the case 3DS would have had a bigger one last year when Sun/Moon released. 

The increase from last year is because  the term "nintendo" is way more relevant this holiday than last holiday, thanks to the switch, which adds on to the pokemon effect.

In the US (and probably most other territories too, the best selling 3DS games this year, as per npd goes like this:

  1. Pokemon: Ultra Sun
  2. Pokemon: Ultra Moon
  3. Pokemon: Sun
  4. Pokemon: Moon
  5. Super Mario Maker
  6. Metroid: Samus Returns
  7. Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia
  8. Super Smash Bros.
  9. Mario Kart 7
  10. Poochy and Yoshi's Wolly World
To say pokemon is not the driving force of 3ds sales is beyond stupid.
Edit: and as like zorg1000 said, there were 3ds shortages late last year as well.

NPD doesn't count bundles. The cheap 2DS at 79.99 is what caused the boost. The holidays are all about deals. Stop being ignorant for the sake of it. 

 

Nothing implies that Pokemon is the system seller you are making it put to be.



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zorg1000 said:
flashfire926 said:

3DS would be at like ~35 million without pokemon.

Thats a huge exaggeration.

3DS shipments were 34.98 million as of Sept 30, 2013. Thats 2 weeks before the first mainline Pokemon titles released on 3DS.

Also 3DS lifetime sales will be over 75 million when all is said and done, so you think ~40 million of those came directly from Pokemon despite mainline Pokemon games on 3DS being around 50 million?

 

Pokemon is def one of, if not the biggest system sellers for 3DS but it would have still easily cleared 50 million without it.

Maybe more than 35 million, sure, I'll give you that. But many people in 2013 bought a 3ds in anticipation  of X/Y, which was announced in January of 2013. And then there are the buyers that straight up know that pokemon will definitely  come to the 3ds, and bought it before the announcement.

Also 3DS system sellers that weren't pokemon werent pokemon were all out before x/y, except smash. Explaining the huge downturn in sales  in 2014 (which would've been even worse without pokemon oras). And if that downturn kept it's pace on, 3ds would've been dead in the ground right now. Instead, it's still doing respectable numbers thanks to pokemon go/sun/moon/usum.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/3ds.html

Expect for smash, all the other non-pokemon huge sellers came out in the first half of 2013 or earlier.

Now that I think of it, yeah, 35 million does sound stupid. Let's change that to, say, 45 million.

 



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

newwil7l said:
flashfire926 said:

The increase from last year is because  the term "nintendo" is way more relevant this holiday than last holiday, thanks to the switch, which adds on to the pokemon effect.

In the US (and probably most other territories too, the best selling 3DS games this year, as per npd goes like this:

  1. Pokemon: Ultra Sun
  2. Pokemon: Ultra Moon
  3. Pokemon: Sun
  4. Pokemon: Moon
  5. Super Mario Maker
  6. Metroid: Samus Returns
  7. Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia
  8. Super Smash Bros.
  9. Mario Kart 7
  10. Poochy and Yoshi's Wolly World
To say pokemon is not the driving force of 3ds sales is beyond stupid.
Edit: and as like zorg1000 said, there were 3ds shortages late last year as well.

NPD doesn't count bundles. The cheap 2DS at 79.99 is what caused the boost. The holidays are all about deals. Stop being ignorant for the sake of it. 

 

Nothing implies that Pokemon is the system seller you are making it put to be.

That makes no sense, 2DS has officially been $79.99 since May 2016.

And yes its safe to assume that the 4 best selling games of the year are the 4 biggest system sellers in that year.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

"Nintendo used all their cards the first year".

First of all, it's far from the case. They have A LOT of heavy hitters possible. Even games like Metroid, even if it doesn't sell 10 millions It has a really core fanbase and I think just games like that can scratch up some system.
But if we forget the biggest system sellers Nintendo has (which aren't out yet), a second Zelda/Mario 3D will still have a big impact on the system like a second Destiny had. It's not the game itself but most of the time the accumulation of games. Some people will crack under 2 Zelda some will buy the console only when Metroid or Pokémon is out. But even with a strong first year, launch years are generally pretty weak since the general market doesn't know the console, it doesn't have any deals/price cut and the library is starting.



newwil7l said:
flashfire926 said:

The increase from last year is because  the term "nintendo" is way more relevant this holiday than last holiday, thanks to the switch, which adds on to the pokemon effect.

In the US (and probably most other territories too, the best selling 3DS games this year, as per npd goes like this:

  1. Pokemon: Ultra Sun
  2. Pokemon: Ultra Moon
  3. Pokemon: Sun
  4. Pokemon: Moon
  5. Super Mario Maker
  6. Metroid: Samus Returns
  7. Fire Emblem Echoes: Shadow of Valentia
  8. Super Smash Bros.
  9. Mario Kart 7
  10. Poochy and Yoshi's Wolly World
To say pokemon is not the driving force of 3ds sales is beyond stupid.
Edit: and as like zorg1000 said, there were 3ds shortages late last year as well.

NPD doesn't count bundles. The cheap 2DS at 79.99 is what caused the boost. The holidays are all about deals. Stop being ignorant for the sake of it. 

 

Nothing implies that Pokemon is the system seller you are making it put to be.

Huh? 79.99 is not a deal. It's the normal goddamn price. It's been that price since the may of 2016.  It's not all the sudden that 79.99 came into play and people started buying 3ds's just now. 

You literally have no proof whatsoever for your claims, whereas I layed down cold hard facts.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

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Wyrdness said:

What's baked into your argument is pretty much irrelevant because we have examples that shoot down your notion, under your own argument PS2 slim is a separate system because it lacks the ports for a HDD and network adaptor locking it out of certain games, fact is no matter what spin you try GB and GBC are the same platform end of much like the people arguing the world is flat it doesn't change the reality of how things really are.

Don't need a network adapter since the slim has an ethernet port and the only game the truly required an HDD is FFXI along with the other online games but all of the official online services for the PS2 has shutdown so the PS2 slim wasn't permanently affected in the end since no PS2 can currently access online required content ... 

You can spin the GB and the GBC to be the same platform as much as possible as you want but the games do not lie ... (Donkey Kong Country, TLOZ: Oracle of Ages/Seasons, Mario Golf/Tennis, Perfect Dark, Pokemon Crystal, SMBD, Wario Land 3 and many more) 

The reality is that nobody can play GBC games with a GB while PS4 can play the same games as the PS4 Pro. Deal with it ... 



Wyrdness said:
BillyBong said:

Seriously?.. you think a strategic rpg will sell consoles?  Animal crossing?  Or even Pokemon?  Andtrust me, I know how big Pokemon is for kids.. I've seen myself the Pokemon craze in Japan, but yes, those games will sell.. but I don't think they'll push much for the console itself.  The Wii u had similar titles too.. Dont think it helped..But like I said, we'll just have to wait and see.

Yes they are going sell systems you know how we know? They've already done it for 3DS in recent times, The Wii U didn't have Fire Emblem, it didn't have Pokemon apart from a fighting game spin off all it got was a board game spin off of AC which needed amiibos so know you're very much mistaken here.

If you want we can make an official bet right now on it.

Yea I'd take the bet if I was a betting man, but it's just my opinion on it. Trying to translate success stories off the 3ds as if it's going to do the same for the switch doesn't make sense to me.  I own a n3ds too but most of those games ain't making me jump out of bed and say, wow, I wish I could play this on my TV.  And outside of a few select titless, personally I feel too old to be playing some of those  games anyways.  



Man.. I hate it when your girl has to leave my place to come back to you..

BillyBong said:

Yea I'd take the bet if I was a betting man, but it's just my opinion on it. Trying to translate success stories off the 3ds as if it's going to do the same for the switch doesn't make sense to me.  I own a n3ds too but most of those games ain't making me jump out of bed and say, wow, I wish I could play this on my TV.  And outside of a few select titless, personally I feel too old to be playing some of those  games anyways.  

The world being round doesn't make sense to some people but guess what the reality is so put your money where your mouth is I'll bet you Pokemon, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing will move units for Switch, loser has to change their avatar image to a crow and admit being wrong in their sig.

Fact is we're not talking about you alone we're talking the overall market and the overall market were jumping to buy those games



Wyrdness said:
BillyBong said:

Yea I'd take the bet if I was a betting man, but it's just my opinion on it. Trying to translate success stories off the 3ds as if it's going to do the same for the switch doesn't make sense to me.  I own a n3ds too but most of those games ain't making me jump out of bed and say, wow, I wish I could play this on my TV.  And outside of a few select titless, personally I feel too old to be playing some of those  games anyways.  

The world being round doesn't make sense to some people but guess what the reality is so put your money where your mouth is I'll bet you Pokemon, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing will move units for Switch, loser has to change their avatar image to a crow and admit being wrong in their sig.

Fact is we're not talking about you alone we're talking the overall market and the overall market were jumping to buy those games

I’m not sure about Fire Emblem moving consoles because even though it’s showing great success the last few years, it’s still relatively small as a franchise in terms of fanbase. Still, it can do really well and hopefully it can continue the great run that started back in Awakening.

Animal Crossing can do really well on Switch. New Leaf did a great job on 3DS and has attracted females onto the system, especially in Japan. The female audience has some really good potential, especially since the Switch has already established that young adult demographic that it has aimed at for the majority of its marketing since it was officially revealed.

As for Pokémon, unless you’ve been hiding under Stonehenge, you should know what Pokémon is. Pokémon is still super popular and it’s mainline games have garnered consistent success throughout the years even after the phenomenon somewhat died down in the early 2000s. Yes, Yokai Watch has stolen some of its thunder in Japan but even that series is suffering from fatigue. Yes, Ultra Sun and Moon won’t sell as well as the original Sun and Moon but it’s somewhat expected for enhanced third versions on what could be the last big year for the 7-year old 3DS. There’s been demand for Pokémon to take the mainline series on a home console for the first time for years and now we await for that first teaser. Whether it will continue its formula while making big updates to the gameplay or create an overhaul, Pokemon Switch will be (and already is) greatly anticipated.



Kai_Mao said:
Wyrdness said:

The world being round doesn't make sense to some people but guess what the reality is so put your money where your mouth is I'll bet you Pokemon, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing will move units for Switch, loser has to change their avatar image to a crow and admit being wrong in their sig.

Fact is we're not talking about you alone we're talking the overall market and the overall market were jumping to buy those games

I’m not sure about Fire Emblem moving consoles because even though it’s showing great success the last few years, it’s still relatively small as a franchise in terms of fanbase. Still, it can do really well and hopefully it can continue the great run that started back in Awakening.

Animal Crossing can do really well on Switch. New Leaf did a great job on 3DS and has attracted females onto the system, especially in Japan. The female audience has some really good potential, especially since the Switch has already established that young adult demographic that it has aimed at for the majority of its marketing since it was officially revealed.

As for Pokémon, unless you’ve been hiding under Stonehenge, you should know what Pokémon is. Pokémon is still super popular and it’s mainline games have garnered consistent success throughout the years even after the phenomenon somewhat died down in the early 2000s. Yes, Yokai Watch has stolen some of its thunder in Japan but even that series is suffering from fatigue. Yes, Ultra Sun and Moon won’t sell as well as the original Sun and Moon but it’s somewhat expected for enhanced third versions on what could be the last big year for the 7-year old 3DS. There’s been demand for Pokémon to take the mainline series on a home console for the first time for years and now we await for that first teaser. Whether it will continue its formula while making big updates to the gameplay or create an overhaul, Pokemon Switch will be (and already is) greatly anticipated.

Both Awakening and Fates moved a good amount of 3DS' on their launch, Nintendo classes FE as a big franchise as a result, both these games sold 2m each which puts its userbase above the likes of Metroid and many JRPGs that aren't FF or DQ.