It will reach 100m easily. It's already selling gangbusters while being supply constrained. When Nintendo unleash Pokemon, this will do Wii numbers.

I think the Switch can comfortably pass 100m. It has the luxury no Nintendo home console has had in the past. All the biggest HH franchises (Pokemon, Animal Crossing etc.) plus all the biggest home console titles. Pokemon + Odyssey, Zelda, LABO, etc.= Very high sales potential. They could even try to resurrect the Wii series in some form or other to appeal to the "Wii generation" or even the parents of prospective LABO owners. Also, with portability the Switch literally advertises itself by being seen out in the wild.

I actually agree more with RTU, the Switch won't reach 100 millions because it would need to stay on board ~8 years, and the system is already after 1 year only (or even at 0 year) completly retarded to handle any of the new big games which are currently under dev for XBOX1X and PS4 Pro.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWObjSqKoqs

Why would it need to be supported for 8 years? That's 12.5M on average per year. Switch will sell much more than that for the next couple of years. 

The 3DS is still being supported despite being very weak, even for handheld standards (it's much closer to the PSP than the PS Vita in terms of power). The Switch on the other hand is quite powerful for a handheld. 

The main reason to buy Nintendo consoles has always been first party games and that will not change now. Pokémon, Animal Crossing and Super Smash Bros. will all reach new heights on the Nintendo Switch. Let's see if Level-5 can re-ignite the Yokai Watch franchise and Capcom would be stupid not to release a brand new Monster Hunter game on the Switch. 

It will most likely live on for longer than 5 years guys. Even the 3DS which was limited af since launch is turning 7 in 2 months.

60 million would be pretty bad imo after being the best selling console of all time on its first year, that we can 80% say its happening, it would need to drop like a rock in year 3-4 or not be able to pick up yoy after its first one while having Smash, Pokemon, Labo, Mario 2D, Animal crossing, price cut, better deals and bundles and probably a revision. That's insane to me. If it is (most likely) selling around 15 millions in a launch year, without most of the big system sellers and marketing boost, there is no way it won't make it to alteast 80 millions imo.

To me, 80 millions is literally the worst case scenario of it's lifetime sales. But seeing how its outselling Wii, it will have both system seller and community of handheld and home consoles and that it has a GOOD reputation, which is REALLY important here (which is where the Wii failed hard), i dont see it not beating the Wii.

I think Nintendo will keep it alive for long until they can make a Switch 2.0 with reasons to buy it. Nintendo said they changed their marketing campain to 1 per person from 1 per house. So we can expect a similar lifetime to a handheld which is normally around 7 years.

It will most likely peak year 3... so here are my predictions :

Year 1 : 15.2 millions --> 15.2 millions
Year 2 : 23 millions --> 38.2 millions
Year 3 : 25 millions --> 63.2 millions
Year 4 : 23 millions --> 86.2 millions
Year 5 : 20 millions --> 106.2 millions
Year 6 : 15 millions --> 121.2 millions
Year 7 : 11 millions --> 132.2 millions
Year 8 : 6 millions --> 138.2 millions

So Around 140 millions LT.
It can also change depending how it is doing in China.

Yup, agreed. Switch will hit 100M, but if and only if Nintendo doesn't introduce another "handheld" during the Switch's run like some rumors have been saying. It has a wide market appeal, you don't have to buy 2 consoles to get the most out of Nintendo's current gen IP, and the software is decent and plentiful. And as long as Switch sells, 3rd parties will continue to support it. Hell, Bethesda would put Skyrim on a calculator if it was selling well enough. Because the principle is, there's money to be made.

If 3DS can hit 70+ Million, I think Switch can at least get there and beyond. Considering Nintendo hasn't begun to pull out its biggest guns yet, I think it's safe to say that when it's all said and done, Switch can hit 100M, but I'd say no more than 110M.

Why would it need to be supported for 8 years to reach that?

PS2 reached 100 million in 5 years, 9 months.

DS reached 100 million in 4 years, 4 months.

Wii reached 100 million in 6 years, 7 months.

PS4 will reach 100 million somewhere in that range.

Also are you aware that GB, DS & Wii all did over 100 million despite not being to handle the majority of AAA games on other devices?

Maybe it wont reach 100 million but your reasoning is very poor.

Too many people overestimate Pokemon. 3DS was down YOY both years that X/Y and Sun/Moon released. 

Obviously I think Switch will be a bigger and more authentic hit than the Wii but it won't be because of Pokemon alone at all.

And how do you think the 3DS would have fared without a Pokémon game?

I think it is really unlikely that they release a new handheld. If so, it will be a Switch pack without a dock but it would be a terrible decision. Maybe they had one ready in case the Switch doesn't work out (so it's not a flop alone on the market) but now that Switch has a chance of being one of their best selling console ever, I don't see why they would. 

It would not only be a terrible decision because of the Market share but also because Nintendo can't fully support 2 consoles at the same time anymore. They weren't able on Wii u/3DS, they won't do better with an HD handheld (assuming it would be) and a Switch. Also, seeing how every game is coming to Switch including previous handheld exclusives, I really doubt they will release a new one.