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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - (Update: 100 million mark reached!)Prediction:Switch will go on to sell 100+ million units

Nautilus said:
HollyGamer said:

Your post is great , but lack of data, comparison, this is sales forum, at least bring more effort, is not like a paragraf will just convince everyone to believe, we need diagram, table, and sales data comparison, without that, all the discussion will just a pointlss debate like kid debate. 

Look, this is going nowhere.Unless you have actual arguments to counter my initial post, so that we may have an actual discussion, like me and Faelco had(for all the bickering we had, I really like him.He has a really good reasoning), please refrain from posting.Just taking stabs at me is not fun and gets nowhere

I am just giving some sugestion (take it or leave it) , first, you should change your thread title to " how to make " switch sells more then 100m". Your writing full of sugestion and and your own idea on how  to make switch succes, rather then pointing  on where you get the ideal number, or how you get  the formula to get that number, and where did you get the data. Please respect people in here also , who want seriously read  sales prediction. I dont want to argue because there is nothing to argue in it.  It will never become a good discussion if the content is lack of effort , i like to discuss sales and etc. but your writing is just lack of data. 



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HollyGamer said:
Nautilus said:

Look, this is going nowhere.Unless you have actual arguments to counter my initial post, so that we may have an actual discussion, like me and Faelco had(for all the bickering we had, I really like him.He has a really good reasoning), please refrain from posting.Just taking stabs at me is not fun and gets nowhere

I am just giving some sugestion (take it or leave it) , first, you should change your thread title to " how to make " switch sells more then 100m". Your writing full of sugestion and and your own idea on how  to make switch succes, rather then pointing  on where you get the ideal number, or how you get  the formula to get that number, and where did you get the data. Please respect people in here also , who want seriously read  sales prediction. I dont want to argue because there is nothing to argue in it.  It will never become a good discussion if the content is lack of effort , i like to discuss sales and etc. but your writing is just lack of data. 

Lacks effort?Really?I may not have show much numbers, but I have show evidences, logics behind my reasoning and much more.What kind of numbers do you want when there is no hybrid machine in the market?If that were so, everyone should predict that VR is general will fail because the virtual boy failed.I mean, its data, numbers right there.If you dont have precedence, how do you want make it more based on numbers?Not to mention that, while I did not write in the initail post, I did point out that Nintendo could appeal to the 3DS and Vita consumer.Vita because the Switch is a natural evolution of it and 3DS because the Switch is, if Nintendo dosent fuck with it, an excellent system as a handheld.

My point is, its great when you have more numbers, more facts and more evidence to back it up.But there are more than one way to prove a point.Making reasonable assertions based on  trends, or a logical deduction of something is also valid.I am making serious sales predictions.I am not saying "Ohhhhh 100 is a round and nice number".I was trying to base more on thing we have better knoledge off, instead of just accepting any kind of rumor that have been circulating as true and build my arguments on that.It makes the reasoning more credible and simply more grounded.

Now, if it either too hard for you to understand my logic, or that you think that sales discussion is only about numbers and dosent take account consumer mentality, market acceptance to a product, brand awareness,technology adaptance and many more, then Im sorry but I dont have anything else that i can say to you for you to see my point



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

These are 3DS shipments year by year:

FYE March 2011: 3.61 million (small launch window)

FYE March 2012: 13.53 million

FYE March 2013: 13.95 million

FYE March 2014: 12.24 million

FYE March 2015: 8.73 million

FYE March 2016: 6.79 million

13.95 million/year was the 3DS' peak.

You can say Switch will capture some of the Wii U audience, but a lot of Wii U owners owned a 3DS, so that maybe gets you only 5-6 million unique Wii U only owners total.

100 million is not happening barring Switch getting a huge break out new IP like what Pokemon was to the Game Boy or Wii Sports to the Wii.

Nintendo has work to do to even get back to the level the 3DS was earlier in its life cycle. I think what you see in the drop off from 2014 to 2015 is the large impact on many more dirt cheap tablets flooding in to kids. 

I think it needs to have Android apps. 



100 + millions?
Is this some kind of joke?
It will never do those numbers.



maxleresistant said:
100 + millions?
Is this some kind of joke?
It will never do those numbers.

This thread will be gold in 2 years time



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If it has major 3rd Party Support I see it getting 50+. No major 3rd party and don't expect it to go more than 20-25.



 

Pinkie_pie said:
maxleresistant said:
100 + millions?
Is this some kind of joke?
It will never do those numbers.

This thread will be gold in 2 years time

I still think that this is early for predictions. But a 100 millions? The funny thing is that only Nintendo fanboys are predicting these kind of numbers

 Or stuff like : "it will sell more than the 3ds"

 

It s funny. Mostly because only a person with no knowledge about the video game market would say stuff like that.

Right now from what we know about the switch my guss is on 35 tops. Because third party support looks like crap (just dance, old skyrim remastee, sonic... this is like the WiiU all over again), it will be underpowered in comparison to the One and Ps4, it will be too big and don t have enough battery to be a good enough handheld, and it will be at least 299, which is not a good price for a handheld.

 

So well, if I m wrong on a number of those, mainly third party, I guess it could sell more, but never a 100. The wii sold a 100 millions because even parents andgrand parents where buying them to play wii sports and wii fit.

There is no way this demographic will buy an NS.

The switch is great for two kinds of people : Nintendo fanboys, ps4/one/Pc gamer who are hardcore gamers and wants another gaming system on the side.

 

A 100 millions is not even in play here. 



maxleresistant said:

 

Pinkie_pie said:

This thread will be gold in 2 years time

I still think that this is early for predictions. But a 100 millions? The funny thing is that only Nintendo fanboys are predicting these kind of numbers

 Or stuff like : "it will sell more than the 3ds"

 

It s funny. Mostly because only a person with no knowledge about the video game market would say stuff like that.

Right now from what we know about the switch my guss is on 35 tops. Because third party support looks like crap (just dance, old skyrim remastee, sonic... this is like the WiiU all over again), it will be underpowered in comparison to the One and Ps4, it will be too big and don t have enough battery to be a good enough handheld, and it will be at least 299, which is not a good price for a handheld.

 

So well, if I m wrong on a number of those, mainly third party, I guess it could sell more, but never a 100. The wii sold a 100 millions because even parents andgrand parents where buying them to play wii sports and wii fit.

There is no way this demographic will buy an NS.

The switch is great for two kinds of people : Nintendo fanboys, ps4/one/Pc gamer who are hardcore gamers and wants another gaming system on the side.

 

A 100 millions is not even in play here. 

The actual funny thing is that you acusse me of not knowing how the industry and its market works, and you go saying that the Switch will fail(or not meet my prediction)based on purely conjecture, or outright guess, such as the battery life being shit, the third party being shit, the Switch being a handheld(its both a handheld and home console), underpowered.

You may be right.After all, its all conjecture, educated guesses and good fun.But before you make claims that others are outright wrong because of reasons and Im right because I know more, look in the mirror.And by the way, did you even read my initial post?



My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.

https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1

Nautilus said:
HollyGamer said:

Well , u know  every kinder garden kid can make prediction as well , hey Nintendo switch will have 200 million sales, XD XD LMAO

I mean sure they can, if they write as well as I do and make arguments as well as I do!Now, I dont see any arguments in that 200 millions prediction XD

Arguments? You think you wrote good arguments? Your second "point" is just you saying "if Nintendo can pull in the numbers (you don't say how) then developers will make games for it". 

Your first point is the assumption that casual gamers will turn into mainstream or core gamers. We know this does not happen.

Your 3rd is about how Nintendo MUST nail their first year going on about how they will because they have Zelda and possibly a new 3D Mario. How many Mario games did the WiiU have? A lot - that didn't help. You're overrestimating the selling power of those IPs.



sergiodaly said:
curl-6 said:

3DS is at 60 million, not 70. It may never even get to 70.

I was lead into this mistake by another user. So just change 70 to 60 in my post, and i stand by my message. 

Yeah, I too will be very surprised if Switch reaches 60 million. Only 11 video game systems in history have ever passed that threshold, and between mobile, Playstation, and Xbox, day's gaming market is blood red ocean filled with very big sharks.

I understand that Nintendo fans are very excited about Switch, but to quote Xenoblade Chronicles...