Pinkie_pie said:
And 100 million for the switch isnt optimistic? Its a certainty ps4 will surpass 100 million and has a good chance to reach 110 million |
100 million Switch sales is extremely optimistic. PS4 is set to have around 50-51 million sales by the end of the year (which is less than I expected as can be seen in my sig, and people said I was being too pessimistic with my predictions), by which time it will have been on the market for over 3 years. The PS2 had a decade long lifespan and several 20 million + selling years, the PS4 is yet to even come close to a 20 million CY and won't have anywhere near as long a life as the PS2 or the PS3, most likely. The market is moving too fast and has branched out and become hinged upon competing on non-gaming features, constant revision and updates and there is no real developer incentive for keeping the 8th gen around as long as the 7th gen, which saw the rise of HD gaming and development tools and method was put in place and losses recovered on all sides by expanding the cycle.
How will the PS4 sell 110 million or more? How much will the PS4 Pro help the PS4 in total, will it lift it into a much higher baseline for 2017? How will it do that and why? The Xbox One has "won" North America three months in a row with the Slim, PS4's own slim didn't help them all that much and even if the PS4 is thrashing the Xbox and Wii U in Japan, it's really not selling impressive numbers at all there, and hasn't for the entire gen, much like the PS3 before it.
If the Xbox One Slim beats the PS4 Slim in North America, there is little reason to think that Scorpio won't beat the Pro in that region and with Japan mostly being irrelevant today, scraping together 110 million or more sales is simply not something I can any of the three doing easily any longer in the modern market. 100 million is not a certainty either, no more so than the PS3 catching the Wii like so many said it would.
110 million sales for the PS4 is very unrealistic, but 100 million sales for the Switch at present is even more so.