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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Lets get real about the most likely scenario with NS.

There are a few assumptions here that I take some issue with, and one that is just plain wrong.

For one, you can't really make any meaningful predictions on its success without knowing it's exact price, specs, or level of support from third parties. You certainly can't seriously predict how it will perform against Scorpio, a console we know even less about.

Switch, as far as I'm co concerned, is a fine name. NS is a curious acronym. I was wondering how people would shorten it.

Never knock something until you try something. That includes the Switch's mini controllers.

And Nintendo has NOT ruled out the base boosting the system's power in some way. If you read their statement, they specifically say the base is not the CONSOLE, and that it's MAIN function is to provide power and a tv connection. Not it's only function.



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nuckles87 said:
There are a few assumptions here that I take some issue with, and one that is just plain wrong.

For one, you can't really make any meaningful predictions on its success without knowing it's exact price, specs, or level of support from third parties. You certainly can't seriously predict how it will perform against Scorpio, a console we know even less about.

Switch, as far as I'm co concerned, is a fine name. NS is a curious acronym. I was wondering how people would shorten it.

Never knock something until you try something. That includes the Switch's mini controllers.

And Nintendo has NOT ruled out the base boosting the system's power in some way. If you read their statement, they specifically say the base is not the CONSOLE, and that it's MAIN function is to provide power and a tv connection. Not it's only function.

We already know major third party games are not coming to the switch. Mass Effect, and Final Fantasy to name two.

As for the dock, if there were truly any performance boosting parts, I think sliding it in and out the the dock station would have some issues in running the game. It wouldn't be as smooth of a transition as it is, plus the danger of bricking the NS. A pc owner would never pull pieces of their pc out while running a game. Plus it would add to the cost considerably. Most likely it isn't going to have anything in the base. We'll see soon enough though.



spemanig said:
bigtakilla said:

I agree whole heartedly. It is going to be price that makes this sink or swim. I also believe it will have a lot to do with third parties. Can the Switch even get half the support as the PS4 and Xbone? I remain skeptical, but hopefully it will. Because if people can play GTA V on a lunch break, that's awesome, but if it doesn't play GTA VI it isn't gonna take long for people to jump ship. Also, I'm concerned with development issues not only in power, but architecture. Not entirely sure what the Switches architecture is, or how easy it will be to port games, but will devs even bother with how many PS4s and Xbones will be in houses by the time NS makes it to the scene. We already know that Mass Effect will not be coming to NS, and Square-Enix said they have no plans of bringing Final Fantasy to NS.

Again, that all comes down to how Nintendo markets the Switch. I am 100% sure there will be a lot of developers taking a wait and see approach to the Switch, and like I said in the VGChat article, I think they have about a year to prove that game will sell on it. In that time, they need to do specific things.

1. Associative marketing deals. I already mentioned this, but this is literally the most important thing. It's more important than even third party exclusives. Nintendo needs to run adds that make people associate popular third party games with the Switch. I was only using Mass Effect as an example. The specific games don't matter as long as they are important and multi-platform. Let's say Destiny 2 comes out next Holiday and it's on PS4, XBO, and Switch. Nintendo needs to do everything in their power to nab exclusive marketing rights for that game, because that's what's going to make people take the thing seriously. That "unprecidented partnership" with EA has to actually come into play, with Nintendo nabbing a deal to exclusively market games like FIFA and Madden. People need to see ads for games they want being played on the Switch, because that's what will make them buy a Switch expecting to buy those games. Third party games didn't sell on the Wii or Wii U because most people didn't buy those systems to play those games. Most people didn't buy those platforms to buy those games because most people didn't associate those games with those platforms. Most people didn't associate those games with those platforms because those games were rarely ever marketed with those platforms. This is literally the most important thing Nintendo needs to do. The two most important games on that Switch teaser trailer were Skyrim and NBA 2K. That needs to be what people need to think of when they think of the Switch. The system where multiplats have mobility. They do this, and multiplats will sell phenominally on the Switch. When that happens, the devs who were waiting will be convinced, and they will come.

2. Actually persue third party companies at all. By the list of partners, we already know that they've done that. That preliminary list is important because it gives them something to work with starting out. They can't do anything in the first point without actually having partners in that first year.

3. Exclusive mainstream/western-style games. Both in house and third party. As important as the third party games are, exclusives are important, but Nintendo has a real audience problem. Exclusives are a great way to get sales via ultimatum, but there's a catch. If all of your exclusives are vibrant, colorful, japanese, E-Rated games, you're only going to attract people who like those kinds of games. That's a real problem when most the of the mainstream market prefers sports games, shooters, open world action games, and narrative-driven experiences that are developed in the west. Nintendo needs to cultivate an audience for the games the third parties are producing. PS4 has GT. XBO has Forza. No suprise racing sims sell well on them. The closest exclusive Nintendo has to that is Mario Kart. It's no wonder those games don't sell on Nintendo systems. PS4 has Killzone. XBO has Halo. Shooters sell well. PS4 has Uncharted/TLoU. XBO has GoW and Quantum Break. No wonder third person action games sell well on them. Nintendo has none of those kinds of games exclusive to their platforms, but then wonder why those games sell well on them. If Beyond Good and Evil is a true exclusive and it's really good, that's a really good sign. Nintendo has to market it on the Switch as hard as Sony marketed Infamous: Second Son. What's Retro working on? I really should be something along those lines. Something that would appeal to that audience. They should be buying studios like Slightly Mad Studios and have them make a brand new racing sim exclusive racing sim for the Switch, or at least have them make one via an exclusive deal.

Power will have nothing to do with why 90% of third party games don't come to the system. Money will be the deciding factor. The problem wasn't that they couldn't get the game to run on weaker hardware for most companies - it's that porting games took too much time and costed to much money to be worth the effort when the end result was always that no one would buy the game. The Wii U port of Splinter Cell: Blacklist was awesome, and nobody bought it because nobody bought a Wii U to buy games like Splinter Cell: Blacklist. The three things I outlined are very easily doable and if they do it, they'll have amazing long-term third party support for most games. If they do that, the Switch will be an absolutely monumental runaway success, and it won't stop running once it starts.

As for architecture, I'm not really sure on that, but Nvidia chips are pretty popular on PC, so I don't personally think this will be much of an issue if everything I outlines above is done right.

Fair enough, but you talk about Wii syndrom, people picking it up as their second console. I just don't think if this is the case that those expansive cinematic experiences people are going to opt for the NX version. 

Not to say anything you've writen so far is wrong. I think Nintendo should be pushing for third parties in exactly how you mentioned gives them the best shot they got. But a lot of people who narrative driven expansive games don't mind waiting to get to their house to play it. Not to mention the exact audience that eats up their handheld offerings, are the same ones who enjoy those colorful, e rated japanese games. It's a catch 22 in a lot of cases. The people who also get their handhelds do so thanks to a low price of entry. When their handheld cost $300 no one was biting. So which way do they go with NX. 

Low specs and price are the better gamble to get people on board. That said, they stand to lose the hardcore crowd because even the base Xbone and PS4 will likely be lower in price, not to mention 4k players and streaming 4k as well as 4k gaming will be dabbled in in the coming years. Therefore again, they need to cater to those who get their handhelds, which means more e rated japanese games. 

Not sure how the commercials are going to look, or who the marketing will cater to a year from now. It'll be interesting to see it unfold.



As long as Nintendo makes great quality 1st party software, that's all that should really matter. Their games have been fun, plain and simple. That's not to say that Microsoft and Sony don't make fun games either. But regardless of hardware. you can pretty much expect an enjoyable title from Nintendo. Now, hardware is still important, but I truly believe that Nintendo will not let hardware limit what they are hoping to achieve softwarewise with the progression of each generation.



LivingMetal said:
As long as Nintendo makes great quality 1st party software, that's all that should really matter. Their games have been fun, plain and simple. That's not to say that Microsoft and Sony don't make fun games either. But regardless of hardware. you can pretty much expect an enjoyable title from Nintendo. Now, hardware is still important, but I truly believe that Nintendo will not let hardware limit what they are hoping to achieve softwarewise with the progression of each generation.

You may very well be on your way to enjoying the Switch.

 

But as with every gen, people are getting crazy with their expectations, this is just to get some reality back in the mix. It's going to be a weak console comparitively, but it's fine. Nintendo has delivered time and time again on weak hardware. This will hopefully fix the droughts which is my only Wii U complaint.

Any thinking of it being a $400 system with a dock that boosts performance significantly but you can slide the tablet in and out of with no issues and everyone will want to develop their biggest games for regardless of userbase and specs.... It is getting out of hand.



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  1. -snip-


CopyMaster1 said:

-snip-

This is literally a list of lies...and you posted this same list in another thread. The hate is strong with this one.



NNID: Dongo8                              XBL Gamertag: Dongos Revenge

I think Switch i great name, simple and catchy and fits perfectly to whole concept, definitely miles better than Wii U.

I think that is crazy to say that is crazy to expect more than 3 hours battery. :)



Miyamotoo said:

I think Switch i great name, simple and catchy and fits perfectly to whole concept, definitely miles better than Wii U.

I think that is crazy to say that is crazy to expect more than 3 hours battery. :)

To run graphics at high definition on a 720p tablet. I just don't think we are gonna get better battery life. Not that it's impossible but to simply expect it, I do feel it's crazy. Keep in mind the controllers need charging too. 3 hours is about all I see.



bigtakilla said:

Fair enough, but you talk about Wii syndrom, people picking it up as their second console. I just don't think if this is the case that those expansive cinematic experiences people are going to opt for the NX version. 

Not to say anything you've writen so far is wrong. I think Nintendo should be pushing for third parties in exactly how you mentioned gives them the best shot they got. But a lot of people who narrative driven expansive games don't mind waiting to get to their house to play it. Not to mention the exact audience that eats up their handheld offerings, are the same ones who enjoy those colorful, e rated japanese games. It's a catch 22 in a lot of cases. The people who also get their handhelds do so thanks to a low price of entry. When their handheld cost $300 no one was biting. So which way do they go with NX. 

Low specs and price are the better gamble to get people on board. That said, they stand to lose the hardcore crowd because even the base Xbone and PS4 will likely be lower in price, not to mention 4k players and streaming 4k as well as 4k gaming will be dabbled in in the coming years. Therefore again, they need to cater to those who get their handhelds, which means more e rated japanese games. 

Not sure how the commercials are going to look, or who the marketing will cater to a year from now. It'll be interesting to see it unfold.

I think most of those people will totally opt for that version. Let's say Tomb Raider 3 comes out on all three. That's a pretty cinematic game. There's a compelling argument to be made for someone to have the option to play that game on the go, especially since the trade-off in fidelity won't be that noticeable to most people. Remember, most people who play games are casual gamers. Most people who bought the first two rebooted Tomb Raider games are casual gamers. There are a lot of people who are going to see the trade off as a non-issue. And remember, the game will still be playable on a TV. The benefit is flexibility explicitely. It's having the option to take the game away from the TV.

You're totally right, there definitely are a lot of people who won't mind waiting, but I think that there are unquestionably more who'd rather not be forced to wait if they don't have to, and the Switch gives them that. You could play Tomb Raider 3 on your Switch exclusively docked the whole time, but just knowing that you're not tethered to your TV is going to be compelling for most consumers. It's not just playing on your TV either. It's playing in your bed. Like I said, most people with laptops don't take them out of their house. They use it at home without being shackled to a monitor. So it's not just playing it at work that's valuable, but playing in your bed, in your bathroom, etc. And again, it's not those things specifically that make the Switch versions of multiplats desirable, it's just the fact that you have that flexibility at all.

The Switch isn't a handheld, so it's really not a catch 22. Remember, Switch is not a hydrid. It's something else entirely. The same way the smartphone audience doesn't effect laptops, the handheld audience doesn't effect the Switch.

There frankly aren't enough hardcore gamers for losing to be an issue. Most people don't even know what framerate is, and can't tell the difference between 1080p and 720p. You tell people that the Switch will play someones favorite multiplats in HD wherever they go, and they'll be sold. Like I said, the only people who buy desktops anymore are professionals and enthusiast. For everyone else, the power found in laptops, and even tablets now, is enough. The flexibility of mobility they provide make them the clear superior option for those people. With good 3rd party support and a $249-$299 price tag, the same will be true of the Switch.

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SPECULATION: I also think that there will be a "Switch Pro" and a "Switch Lite" in the future that is marketed towards hardcore gamers and people who want a pocket-sized handheld specifically. If you look at Apple as an example, and you should, Nintendo's Switch is like if Apple fused their Macbook and iPad lines into one product. Apple still has the Mac Pro on the higher end and the iPhone on the lower end. I see Nintendo doing something similar. I think they'll make a powerful $350-$400 home console that can only play Switch games at home, and a $150-$200 pocket-sized handheld that can only play Switch games on the go. In that way, Nintendo is using this OG Switch to trojan-horse this "Switch" platform. The only thing they need to really think about is getting the Switch Pro to talk to the original Switch's dock, because people who already own a Switch will still want to dock their Switch into their TV, and having two systems connected to a TV would be a bad deal. Maybe the Switch Pro will just be is a beefier dock, and you'll have the option to either dock it or pop the card into the Pro itself for more power. Maybe the Switch Pro will be that SDK and it will just connect to the dock itself. Maybe it'll be more seemless. Maybe I'm crazy. I dunno.