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Nintendo Switch to succeed, then fail

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wombat123 said:
JRPGfan said:

I think the biggest risk towards the Nintendo Switch, is if Nintendo does a 3DS succesor as their now saying they will.

That sh*t is crazy to me.
They need to embrace the Switch and go "this is it guys, this is both our handheld and home console".

 

They just have to get the Switch down to 199$ (without controller base, or dock).

And they can sell the Switch as a handheld for those that only want a handheld as well.

Rather than make a 3DS successor, Nintnedo should just make a handheld-only NS that's cheaper and less powerful than the original NS.  It could be the NS's version of the 2DS.  I'd suggest making a stronger traditional home console variant but at this point I'm seeing the NS as Nintendo's concession that they can no longer compete in the home console market.  In fact, when I think of it that way, I get a lot less disappointed at what the NS ended up being.

It already is like that, if you take away the Dock and controller base unit.

Unless your talking about a cheaper version of the NS, kinda like how there is a 2DS as well?

So a smaller chip, and you cant take off the joy-con L & R peices...

But I think that ll be dangerous for the market.. Id rather see Nintendo just fully embrace the Switch, and go this is it.

Its already portable, and that means you ll also have potential to sell the dock+controller base to more users (that get just the tablet part).



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A few points.
- I really like the Switch name.
- I agree if it sells for under $200 it will be a big success, but I can't imagine how this would be possible.
* Cheap tablets can, but they don't have detachable controller, docking station, and mid to high end mobile specs like Switch will.
* Which raises the question, does everything come bundled together at launch (Switch, two joy cons, dock, and center piece for joy con console controller?
- For a lot of people, the Switch will never leave the dock.
- Nintendo Switch mini, basically same hardware with smaller screen, and no detachable joy cons is inevitable. I wonder if it would fit the dock though. Maybe this isn't in the cards.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

JRPGfan said:
wombat123 said:

Rather than make a 3DS successor, Nintnedo should just make a handheld-only NS that's cheaper and less powerful than the original NS.  It could be the NS's version of the 2DS.  I'd suggest making a stronger traditional home console variant but at this point I'm seeing the NS as Nintendo's concession that they can no longer compete in the home console market.  In fact, when I think of it that way, I get a lot less disappointed at what the NS ended up being.

It already is like that, if you take away the Dock and controller base unit.

Unless your talking about a cheaper version of the NS, kinda like how there is a 2DS as well?

So a smaller chip, and you cant take off the joy-con L & R peices...

But I think that ll be dangerous for the market.. Id rather see Nintendo just fully embrace the Switch, and go this is it.

Its already portable, and that means you ll also have potential to sell the dock+controller base to more users (that get just the tablet part).

Kind of.  Some people would rather have a smaller version of the NS that they could fit in their pocket and is cheaper.  I'm not saying now, I'm saying down the line in a year or two.  I agree that if they're going with the tablet console, they need to establish it first before going with smaller, cheaper variants because they've gone all-in on the 'hybrid' game.  Hell, maybe in the future, the tech will be strong enough that they can keep the hybrid aspect and still make the NS smaller and cheaper.



catofellow said:

I have to admit, I was really hyped by the switch reveal.  I think it will be really successful at launch and immediately following.  However, upon review, I think sales will ultimately slow and it will fail in the long run.  All the functions and different ways of playing seem impressive, however, none of them seem great.  Here are my thoughts, let me know if anyone disagrees.

1.  Portable.  This device seems bulky for a purely moblie device.  Can't be popped in a pocket, and battery life is probably not great.  I'd rate it as a mediocre mobile gaming option.  The 3ds is much better.

2.  Portable screen with joy-con controllers.  Let's be real here, nobody is going to want to cramp around a 5-8 inch screen with a friend.  This is not a realistic way to play.  Also, either the joystick or face buttons will be centered rather on than at the edge.  This is made worse by how small the joy-cons are.  This is a non starter.

3. Home console.  This is what it was made for and my biggest concern.  The device will almost certainly be underpowered compared to Xbox or PS4.  Especially with the almost certainly lower compacity internal storage and cartridge relative to blue ray.  This despite the fact that there is nothing unique that we have seen about playing this way like the Wii or Wii U had.  So as a console it will be inferior to the competition.

For a multi function device to be successful, it has to do one thing really great.  Think the original iPhone.  It was mediocre phone, and an oversized iPod, but it was the greatest mobile internet device anyone had ever seen.  The Nintendo Switch so far does not seem to do any one thing greater than the competition.

Think about it this way: on the portable front, it's competing with the iPad. On the console front, it's competing with Apple TV and Android TV.

You do have a point about the Joy Cons, but if we could just use the Pros, that almost disappears entirely.



The BuShA owns all!

catofellow said:
A few points.
- I really like the Switch name.
- I agree if it sells for under $200 it will be a big success, but I can't imagine how this would be possible.
* Cheap tablets can, but they don't have detachable controller, docking station, and mid to high end mobile specs like Switch will.
* Which raises the question, does everything come bundled together at launch (Switch, two joy cons, dock, and center piece for joy con console controller?
- For a lot of people, the Switch will never leave the dock.
- Nintendo Switch mini, basically same hardware with smaller screen, and no detachable joy cons is inevitable. I wonder if it would fit the dock though. Maybe this isn't in the cards.

I also like the name, it's simple and to the point and it describes the product well, unlike Wii or Wii U, which doesn't really mean anything coherent.

And I'm one of those who will leave it in the dock all the time. I wonder how much peripherals cost though, Nintendo are famous for charging a ridiculous premium for controllers and other gear, when Wiimote + launched, the entire kit with nunchuck, wiimote and plus add-on would cost about half of what the actual console did.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

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wombat123 said:

I do to an extent.  The fact that it may be underpowerd (fingers crossed that the dock adds power) means very little 3rd party support.  Very little 3rd party supports relegates it into 'companion device' territory for the average gamer even if Nintendo decides to go for a unified library.  I think for the NS to succeed based on what we know of it and what can logically assume of it, Nintendo needs to regain its lost casual/children's audience that was stolen from them by smartphones and tablets.  They might be able to do it if they leverage their smartphone games well enough but I have my doubts on that front.

I think modern games are reaching a point in needless overcomplexity of graphics, where as long as this system is just about 1/3 of the power of a PS4, it'd be quite easy to dial back a few graphical perks, and have the exact same games running.

And even if if can't be anyone's primary system; Being relegated to being companion might not be any worse for Nintendo's main system than it has been for their handhelds. If by power of being portable lets it sell what the 3DS has sold, their lowest selling handheld, it would still make it one of their best selling home consoles.



I think that the reason that the Switch could suceed and then fail would be if the battery life turns out to be meager.



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catofellow said:

I have to admit, I was really hyped by the laptop reveal.  I think it will be really successful at launch and immediately following.  However, upon review, I think sales will ultimately slow and it will fail in the long run.  All the functions and different ways of using seem impressive, however, none of them seem great.  Here are my thoughts, let me know if anyone disagrees.

1.  Portable.  This device seems bulky for a purely moblie device.  Can't be popped in a pocket, and battery life is probably not great.  I'd rate it as a mediocre mobile computing option.  The Personal Organizer X9000+ is much better.

2.  Portable screen with trackball mouse.  Let's be real here, nobody is going to want to cramp around a 5-8 inch screen with a friend.  This is not a realistic way to work.  Also, either the trackball and mouse buttons will be centered rather on than at the edge.  This is made worse by how small the space is.  This is a non starter.

3. Home computer.  This is what it was made for and my biggest concern.  The device will almost certainly be underpowered compared to desktop computer.  Especially with the almost certainly lower compacity internal storage and cartridge relative to floppy disks.  This despite the fact that there is nothing unique that we have seen about playing this way like the electronic typewriter Z9000.  So as a home computerit will be inferior to the competition.

For a multi function device to be successful, it has to do one thing really great.  Think the original iPhone.  It was mediocre phone, and an oversized iPod, but it was the greatest mobile internet device anyone had ever seen.  The Nintendo Switch so far does not seem to do any one thing greater than the competition.

I'm not so sure.



Nov 2016 - NES outsells PS1 (JP)

Don't Play Stationary 4 ever. Switch!

It's not that big tho.