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Nintendo Switch to succeed, then fail

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch to succeed, then fail

shenlong213 said:

3rd party games like Dark Souls series, Mass Effect play on portable console, etc ...

Yet wasn't a reason people gave for the Vita failing that it tried to offer home console experiences on the go? That the experiences it offered were basically home console games not handheld games and that was a problem?



Predictions (Made July 2019)

LTD: PS4 - 130m, Switch - 110m, XBO - 52m       2019 : PS4 - 15m, Switch - 18.8m, XBO - 4.8m        2020: Switch - 22m (Peak Year)


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OP has some good points; I've been thinking along the same lines. The Switch, like the Wii U before it, appears to want to be a jack of all trades and master of none and this is potentially a huge problem.
Your best point is the one on portable local multiplayer, the whole prospect is ridiculous and focusing on small, detachable controllers and people trying to peer into what is basically a tiny display in hot seat gaming instead of online multiplayer, which the device itself would be much more suited to with its form factor, is a huge mistake imo.

And what about multimedia? If it can't use the same media functions as other portable and smart devices, why would people be hassled into carrying yet another device with isolated function? There are no news on this bit either, it's like they still don't understand how the smart device market and customer work. Look at what people do on the subway, the bus or on airplanes; they browse the web, listen to music and play simplified games with ditto control schemes for tiny bouts of easy fun. Does it even have a camera? Tablets and smartphones do, and they are used. A whole lot. Online functions, social media, share functions and the like are alpha and omega in the success of modern portable devices, this seems to have flown right over Nintendo's heads.
How many will, realistically, sit on the subway or the bus flailing around wii like remotes and play an immersive open world RPG like Skyrim or Zelda rather than enjoying in the comfort of your own, quiet home with a huge screen and great sound and better controls?

I feel like Nintendo are trying to tread down paths that are already heavily trodden and then they suddenly veered off and got lost somewhere along the way, once again. They need to get out of these woods and they need a device that is likely to have global impact, not just a shot at being a factor in Japan.
They still seem not to have learned how to properly read the market and respond, they still insist on inventing needs that no one, or at least very few, actually have and the concept, like the Wii U, is trying to reel in two very different demographics, which is a bad idea in the modern market, they only need their own example from the 8th gen for reference.

 

Edit; Poster above me knows what's up, it ties in with my example of Zelda and Skyrim on the subway/bus.



End of 2016 hardware sales:

Wii U: 15 million. PS4: 54 million. One: 30 million. 3DS: 64.8 million. PSVita: 15.2 million.

I hope they don't stupid stuff like creating something called the "Nintendo Switch Double Award Program"



“It appeared that there had even been demonstrations to thank Big Brother for raising the chocolate ration to twenty grams a week. And only yesterday, he reflected, it had been announced that the ration was to be reduced to twenty grams a week. Was it possible that they could swallow that, after only twenty-four hours? Yes, they swallowed it.”

- George Orwell, ‘1984’

I think the biggest risk towards the Nintendo Switch, is if Nintendo does a 3DS succesor as their now saying they will.

That sh*t is crazy to me.
They need to embrace the Switch and go "this is it guys, this is both our handheld and home console".

 

They just have to get the Switch down to 199$ (without controller base, or dock).

And they can sell the Switch as a handheld for those that only want a handheld as well.



It's really all about the price tag and profit margin. If Nintendo can price it competitively and make a profit on hardware, it will make a killing with first-party software sales.

Look at all the crazy attention the NES Mini is getting. It's a $60 dollar system that plays only 30 games. If Nintendo sells NS for $199 and backs it up with the full might of its internal studios it will do very well.

Nintendo would be wise to remember that the console itself is just a vehicle for the games. People want to play Nintendo games. They just don't want to pay $350 for the privilege.



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Region-free --------> Success

Region-locked -----> Failure

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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Alby_da_Wolf said:

Region-free --------> Success

Region-locked -----> Failure

Speaking of region-locking, it reminds me of all the support from small/medium sized developers from Japan that the Vita got.  Maybe with the extra power, portability, lack of awkward gimmicks, standardized controls/display and (supposedly) easier coding, some of them will start to also develop on the NS. 

Also, if the NS is region-free, it has to allow for some way to easily patch in fan-translations because I don't want to deal with NOA's special snowflake localizations if I don't have to.



JRPGfan said:

I think the biggest risk towards the Nintendo Switch, is if Nintendo does a 3DS succesor as their now saying they will.

That sh*t is crazy to me.
They need to embrace the Switch and go "this is it guys, this is both our handheld and home console".

 

They just have to get the Switch down to 199$ (without controller base, or dock).

And they can sell the Switch as a handheld for those that only want a handheld as well.

Rather than make a 3DS successor, Nintnedo should just make a handheld-only NS that's cheaper and less powerful than the original NS.  It could be the NS's version of the 2DS.  I'd suggest making a stronger traditional home console variant but at this point I'm seeing the NS as Nintendo's concession that they can no longer compete in the home console market.  In fact, when I think of it that way, I get a lot less disappointed at what the NS ended up being.



mountaindewslave said:

have you seen how many people carry around big tablets in everyday life or on transportation? a lotttt. I think you're way off base OP and just looking for attention.

a lot of "look at me look at me, I'm predicting something fails!" threads lately, especially in response to things that seem to be popular in conversation with the masses

I actually rarely see people out with tablets.  Much more frequently with phones.  

Not looking for attention, just sharing my thoughts.  I think it will sell a tremendous amount initially, then tail off.  Sort of like Wii but faster.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

lasershow said:
catofellow said:

The Wii U and GCN also had Mario Kart.  People and developers care.

The gamecube wasn't underpowered.

 Yes you are right. The gamecube was only slightly under power compared to the Xbox. But it was underpowered with features. People really cared at the time that it didn't play DVDs and that the game disks had lower capacity. It had the worst online play support and Nintendo was openly hostile to the importance of online play. The memory cards had like 1/8 the capacity for game saves, with no hard drive support. And it had the worst controllers, at least in the eyes of the majority, with weird shaped buttons, fewer overall buttons, and a stubby right stick.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million