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Nintendo Switch to succeed, then fail

Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Switch to succeed, then fail

The Switch selling point is "Play every (EVERY) Nintendo game whenever you want, wherever you want, however you want". It can survive without 3rd parties better than the Wii U, and it'll have bigger and better games than the 3DS. It'll also support the 3DS 3rd party games/exclusives (but to be fair, these are mostly games that appeal the Japanese market), and hold, I don't know, some small level of home consoles 3rd party support.

Maybe I'm a blind Nintendo fan, but I seriously can't see a system that shares the Nintendo's handheld and home console libraries failling.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

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pokoko said:

The question is, will it create a meaningful amount of new customers for Nintendo who either come from another ecosystem or are new to gaming? I'm not convinced yet. A lot is riding on their first year release schedule of games.

That's what Nintendo is hoping to do with all their brand expanding strategies (smartphone games, movies, theme park). It worked with the 3DS and PoGo for the last few months, but that's a very cheap system with a huge catalog. 



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

Games matter more than anything else. 3ds is severely more underpowered than vita, but it completely slay vita in gaming library (and ofc sale number).

I'm glad we're getting new mario, dq11, and zelda games for NS, but i hope there are more to come. Show me new Metroid, Fire emblem, MH, AC, and level5 rpg, then I will day1 purchase this console



Pokemon would have been the perfect title to launch with this system. But the tease of 3D Mario, Splatoon, and especially Mario Kart is promising. Mario Kart has traditionally been the most reliable system seller for Nintendo home and handheld consoles. Even if its just a Mario Kart 8 Switched Edition.



Slarvax said:
pokoko said:

The question is, will it create a meaningful amount of new customers for Nintendo who either come from another ecosystem or are new to gaming? I'm not convinced yet. A lot is riding on their first year release schedule of games.

That's what Nintendo is hoping to do with all their brand expanding strategies (smartphone games, movies, theme park). It worked with the 3DS and PoGo for the last few months, but that's a very cheap system with a huge catalog. 

It's a very good move and, quite honestly, probably thier best chance at finding success in the home console market.  The Wii U essentially proved that Nintendo's home console franchises are not going to get the job done alone.

I think there are also some people out there like me who have more interest in 3DS games than Wii U games but aren't into handheld gaming.  If the Switch is cheap enough, I might buy it for Fire Emblem and similar titles.

There are possible negatives, though.  The design might alienate 3DS owners and push them more into mobile gaming, for example.

The very worst thing, though, would be is if it's obviously weaker than the Xbox One but not any cheaper.  It needs to either be on par with the other consoles or much less expensive.  It can be stuck in that deadzone where it doesn't look good in either category.



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m_csquare said:
Games matter more than anything else. 3ds is severely more underpowered than vita, but it completely slay vita in gaming library (and ofc sale number).

I'm glad we're getting new mario, dq11, and zelda games for NS, but i hope there are more to come. Show me new Metroid, Fire emblem, MH, AC, and level5 rpg, then I will day1 purchase this console

Yeah, but 3DS has unique gameplay mechanic due to form factor.  Also people like basic games for mobile, not PS2/3 quality games.  Switch is a larger, more powerful, and more expensive Vita when used as portable.



Lifetime Sales Prediction - 6/29/2013
Wii U - 38 million
XBOX One - 88 million
Playstation 4 - 145 million

have you seen how many people carry around big tablets in everyday life or on transportation? a lotttt. I think you're way off base OP and just looking for attention.

a lot of "look at me look at me, I'm predicting something fails!" threads lately, especially in response to things that seem to be popular in conversation with the masses



Slarvax said:

The Switch selling point is "Play every (EVERY) Nintendo game whenever you want, wherever you want, however you want". It can survive without 3rd parties better than the Wii U, and it'll have bigger and better games than the 3DS. It'll also support the 3DS 3rd party games/exclusives (but to be fair, these are mostly games that appeal the Japanese market), and hold, I don't know, some small level of home consoles 3rd party support.

Maybe I'm a blind Nintendo fan, but I seriously can't see a system that shares the Nintendo's handheld and home console libraries failling.

you're on point. There's no way it fails. There are a lot of people like me that are going to buy every Nintendo handheld iteration no matter what.

Those claiming this thing is going to falter are delusional. It will at minimum surpass 3DS sales



catofellow said:

I have to admit, I was really hyped by the switch reveal.  I think it will be really successful at launch and immediately following.  However, upon review, I think sales will ultimately slow and it will fail in the long run.  All the functions and different ways of playing seem impressive, however, none of them seem great.  Here are my thoughts, let me know if anyone disagrees.

1.  Portable.  This device seems bulky for a purely moblie device.  Can't be popped in a pocket, and battery life is probably not great.  I'd rate it as a mediocre mobile gaming option.  The 3ds is much better.

2.  Portable screen with joy-con controllers.  Let's be real here, nobody is going to want to cramp around a 5-8 inch screen with a friend.  This is not a realistic way to play.  Also, either the joystick or face buttons will be centered rather on than at the edge.  This is made worse by how small the joy-cons are.  This is a non starter.

3. Home console.  This is what it was made for and my biggest concern.  The device will almost certainly be underpowered compared to Xbox or PS4.  Especially with the almost certainly lower compacity internal storage and cartridge relative to blue ray.  This despite the fact that there is nothing unique that we have seen about playing this way like the Wii or Wii U had.  So as a console it will be inferior to the competition.

For a multi function device to be successful, it has to do one thing really great.  Think the original iPhone.  It was mediocre phone, and an oversized iPod, but it was the greatest mobile internet device anyone had ever seen.  The Nintendo Switch so far does not seem to do any one thing greater than the competition.

1. Portable. Is 3DS a better portable? 3DS launched with battery life of 3~5hrs where 5 was maximum with no 3D and low light settings. NS is rumored to be 3hrs. To me that is not much difference, especially when DS had something like a forever battery. Being able to fold the 3DS and put in your pocket/bag was definitely a win. But this is a 6" screen with what looks like another inch or so of a frame. I have a 7" tablet and it fits in my back pocket just fine. Many people carry tablets of this size or larger without issue. I think mass consumers don't really care that much, but yes 3DS was easier in this regard.

Minor advantage to 3DS but, NS is still a decent portable device. Which sold better in later years 3DS or 3DS XL?

2. Joy-con. Its so hard to state how these will feel in your hand based on that video. Connected to device, I think this looks great and likely more comfortable that gamepad. Disconnected, I'm unsure if I'll like. But if its similar to using Wiimotes, then it will likey be fine. The nunchuk was perfectly comfortable too, so I have faith this will be fine. As for local multiplayer on 6" screen, I don't think that is a big selling point either. But I don't think it makes or breaks the joy-con setup nor is it the main purpose of this form.

Likely non-issue.

3. Home console. What you really mean here is raw power. From NES to Wii generations, the most powerful console never was the most popular with consumers. This gen is the first time best raw power is leading the generation. This arguement is rather silly as in all reality it comes down to the software, even in this gen with PS4. PS4 has all the same games as XboxOne and it launched at what was basically a better price point with no negative buzz. The power was not the core reason PS4 is winning in sales at all. Just like raw power wasn't why Wii decemated its competition and only went on decline once software dried up.

NS can do fine so long as it has exciting and unique software, plus the major 3rd party titles, which lets face it go on every console they can. You wouldn't see that list of partners including heavy game pushers like Bethesda if the companies didn't feel they could put content on the device.

Also, I think you don't understand how carts work for games. They are significantly better. Data transfer speeds are faster, they can hold far more data at marginally increased cost and they could be rewritten on if desired (updates). Though you are right that the default internal storage will be less as Nintendo will stick with flash memory (which is better than a HDD) and allow SD Cards/ext HDD as people want.

Really the verdict on this will need to wait until Jan/Feb when Nintendo and others start showing off their game support in 2017. I think the evidence is there to suggest that the games will be there to make this a very viable product even when PS4Pro and Xbox Scorpio launch. Plus, Nintendo is now clearly similar to architectural design as the mobile world and can continue to launch a new revision of NS every few years, just like MSony are doing, at the similar pricing to keep up with MSony's own revisions.

As for your final point, all I have to say is Nintendo IPs have by far the biggest value there is in gaming. Main line Mario, Zelda and Pokemon on the same console? Check and mate. Don't forget Nintendo's push into mobile, I wonder why this has a tablet multi-touch screen as well?



a lot of Michael Pachters